Jazz vs. Grizzlies tale of the tape

Estimated read time: 7-8 minutes

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SALT LAKE CITY — The Jazz and Grizzlies have played three times so far. The Grizz have won two and the Jazz have won one. With the Jazz needing one last game to still have a shot at getting into the playoffs. This will be a look back at how those games played out and what the Jazz can do differently tonight.

The games:

The first was Nov. 5 way back in the first handful of games for either team. It was actually the Grizzlies first home game. The Grizzlies won 103-94 with Zach Randolph scoring 16 points and grabbing 18 rebounds. Gordon Hayward and Mo Williams scored 19 and 17 respectively. Marc Gasol scored 22, doubling Al Jefferson's total.

The next game was in December, where the Grizzlies gave the Jazz their second home loss of the season 99-86. Randolph was switched on to Jefferson on defense and slowed him down in the second half. Randolph had another monster game with 25 points and 16 rebounds. Jefferson ended with 21 and 8.

The last, and lone Jazz win, was on March 16 when the Jazz were shuffling their starting lineup once again after tumbling down the standings. The Grizzlies took a five-point lead into halftime, but the Jazz outscored them 45-33 in the second half to get a 90-84 victory. Hayward had 17 points and 8 rebounds, while the Jazz "held" Randolph to 19 points and 9 rebounds.

Memphis Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph smiles as he runs down court after scoring in the fourth quarter of an NBA basketball game against the Sacramento Kings in Sacramento, Calif., Sunday, April 7, 2013. The Grizzlies won 89-87.(AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)

Starting lineups:Every game between these teams there has been a different starting lineup for the Jazz and two different ones for the Grizzlies. The point guard, power forward and center for each team has stayed consistent, but the wings have changed.

For the Jazz that group is Mo Williams, Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson. For the Grizzlies it is Mike Conley, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol.

The first game, Nov. 5, the Jazz had Gordon Hayward and Marvin Williams starting. The Grizzlies started Rudy Gay and Tony Allen. This was back when Rudy Gay was still on the Grizzlies and the Jazz hadn't made a starting lineup change.

The next game, Dec. 15, the Jazz started Williams and Foye outside with Hayward as the sixth man. The Grizzlies had the same starting five.

The third game, March 16, featured the Jazz's current starting rotation with Foye and Hayward, with Ma. Williams on the bench this time. The Grizzlies had newly acquired Tayshaun Prince starting at small forward.

These last lineups will be the ones both teams will use tonight.

For the Grizzlies: Conley, Allen, Prince, Randolph and Gasol.

For the Jazz: Mo Williams, Foye, Hayward, Millsap and Jefferson.

Key match up:

There are two match ups that need to be watched, and offense-defense for both sides. The first and biggest is Randolph vs. Millsap. In the two wins for Memphis Randolph has 20.5 points and 17 rebounds per game. In the loss 19 and 9. Millsap and Derrick Favors need to keep a body on him.

Memphis Grizzlies guard Jerryd Bayless (7) shoots over Houston Rockets guard Jeremy Lin, right, and forward Terrence Jones (6) during the first half of an NBA basketball game on Friday, April 12, 2013, in Houston. (AP Photo/Patric Schneider)

The other side is Hayward vs. Prince. Prince has been a good defender for a long time, but Hayward did damage in the win. He had 17 points on 10 shots, with 8 rebounds and 3 assists. If Hayward can get hot it should mean good things for the Jazz.

Key subs:

The Jazz are far more reliant on their bench than the Grizzlies, but that doesn't mean the Grizzlies won't use their bench.

In the first game Quincy Pondexter scored 14, in the second Hamed Haddai grabbed 8 rebounds and added defense in a short span and the third game Jerryd Bayless scored 24 points in 24 minutes. The Grizzlies starters are so good that if any Grizzlies player gets hot it could be bad for the Jazz really quick. Bayless' shooting is what should really worry the Jazz if he can hit a spot-up 3 consistently.

The Jazz will need the usual suspects to show up, especially Favors. With no Enes Kanter to help with the Memphis group of big bodies Favors needs to play great defense on either Gasol or Randolph when needed and especially stay out of foul trouble. If Alec Burks can add a few buckets it could be an x-factor that the Jazz need.

One quarter to rule them all:

Simply put, if the first games mean anything, whichever team wins the third quarter will probably win the game.

Here are the splits.

Game one: Grizzlies won by 9, won the third by 9, 27-18. Game two: Grizzlies won by 13, won the third by 18, 28-10.

Game three: Jazz won by 6, won the third by 15, 24-9.

The Jazz had been abyssal in the third for the first 50 or so games this season. Slow starts and slow thirds were almost a given, but now the Jazz are figuring it out. If they can grab a lead and stretch it in the third they have a shot.

The Jazz have been a good fourth quarter team, but the Grizzlies are a great defensive team, especially of late, and any deficit in the fourth could be season ending.

Which team shows up:

The Jazz have been anything but consistent through this season. They can go from world-beaters to looking lost and indifferent in a night. Can the Jazz play with the effort and emotion that they should play with or will they come out timid just looking to not get blown out early and trying to keep it close.

They should have no problem with emotion and energy, but teams can be too hyped for a game and lose focus on the little things. Coach Tyrone Corbin's best attribute has been keeping the team together this season. If he can channel a "just one game" mentality the Jazz will have a shot. If the Jazz come out wild and get behind early it could spell the end.

X-factors:

The conspiracy angle. I don't believe it really and it isn't true, but if there are some whacky calls early on start flooding the NBA with your protests. The league wants the Lakers in it and everyone knows that. Okay, again I don't believe that, but still it needed to be said. Don't freak out, let the bad calls happen in the Lakers-Rockets game. The shooting guard spot. Which player makes plays with his opportunities. Can Foye get hot and force the Grizzlies to play one-on-one with Jefferson? Can anyone on the Grizzlies do the same for Gasol and Randolph? Can Tony Allen provide any offense? Allen is the other guy in the starting rotation for Memphis. He is a defensive stopper, but if he can hit double-figures those points are all gravy for the starting unit.

Foul trouble. This could really be the difference in the game, and not in the conspiracy way. The Jazz have shortened their bench, and while any player would play 48 minutes on a night like this, and can't afford their rotation to get ruined early.

Against the Timberwolves the Jazz were forced into a funky lineup with Marvin and Millsap playing the center and power forward position for a short time. This was because of foul trouble for Favors. On the flip side if Randolph or Gasol somehow get into foul trouble the Jazz could be on easy street.

The big lineup. The power behind the Jazz's run to the postseason last year hasn't been used too much, but this could be a good time to use it. Prince isn't as athletic as he once was and Millsap could take him. If Hayward and Mo are hitting shots this could push the Jazz over the top.

Prediction:

This game won't hit 100, but if it does it is probably bad for the Jazz. The Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams around, but are a terrible fourth quarter scoring team. Neither team averages 100, Jazz average 98 per and Grizz 93.5. If the Jazz hit their average they probably win.

The game will be decided in the trenches, to steal a football term, and in the opening minutes of each half. The Jazz don't have to beat the Grizz in the paint, just stay close, their outside shot is better.

If either team lays an egg in the first or third the game will go the other way. Randolph will have a big game, Hayward will too, who will win between Jefferson and Gasol.

Gasol is overall the better player, but when Jefferson plays mean and focused he has all the tools, even defense, when he needs to. Expect him to get some assists as the Jazz knockdown shots from outside. The Jazz can get hot from outside and win the game.

Jazz 90, Grizzlies 85