What to expect from the vice presidential debate


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SALT LAKE CITY — Vice President Joe Biden and Republican vice presidential opponent Paul Ryan will join each other on stage in Kentucky Thursday for the first and only vice presidential debate of the race.

Republicans will be looking to build on the momentum of last week's presidential debate where the consensus of American voters believe Mitt Romney won the first debate. Romney's performance led to a major shift in his overall success as a presidential candidate, with national and state polls shifting in his favor.

Earlier this week, Pew Research showed a 12-point swing for Romney, giving him a four-point lead nationally over President Barack Obama. The shift in momentum has the Democratic Party hoping for a good performance from the gaffe-prone Biden. Nevertheless, Biden is a strong debater and will be a worthy opponent on stage.

Political scientists and analysts generally agree that presidential debates have relatively no impact on voters in a presidential race. If the debate impacts voters, it's relatively insignificant. Vice presidential debates are only diluting the already sparse opportunities, offering little in way of changing public perception of the presidential candidates.

However, in a close race where Romney saw a major momentum change among voters after one debate, a vice presidential debate and the remaining two presidential debates could have an impact on voters this fall.

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Following Romney's strong week in the polls, Biden will likely look to put an end to the Romney campaign momentum, relying on a strong performance at the debate. Although a majority of voters will solely cast their vote for what Pres. Obama says, there may be some reluctance from voters to see how Biden handles the debate before their mind is made up.

Voters want to see confidence in the sitting administration, and if the president and vice president have a lackluster performance, it will not bode well for the Obama campaign.

In 2004, President George W. Bush had a poor performance against John Kerry in their first debate. Then-Vice President Dick Cheney's strong performance against John Edwards helped the Bush campaign move past a short-lived free fall, shifting the momentum back to the incumbent president. A similar situation could take place Thursday night.

And because vice presidential debates have traditionally been more aggressive, with each candidate attacking the opponent's platform, it's likely Biden will have more than a fighting chance.

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Since becoming vice president, Biden has been the punchline of the Obama administration, with many pundits questioning his abilities. Some even suggested that Pres. Obama switch out Biden with Hillary Clinton. However, prior to his role in the Obama administration, Biden was considered to be a well-versed politician with strong ideas. For Biden, the debate is more than just reciting Pres. Obama's record and going toe-to-toe with Ryan, it's showing he has credibility.

Congressman Ryan will look to come off the energy and intensity that Romney showed a week ago, yet it will be difficult to match that same effort. Ryan has not participated in a campaign debate in approximately 14 years, and will likely struggle to come off as a skilled debater, especially against a seasoned debater in Biden.


Joe Biden's been doing this for 40 years. I mean, the man ran for president twice, he's the sitting vice president. And this is my first time on this kind of stage. So sure, there's a lot of pressure.

–Paul Ryan


"Joe Biden's been doing this for 40 years," Ryan told WTMJ-AM radio in Milwaukee, Wisc. "I mean, the man ran for president twice, he's the sitting vice president. And this is my first time on this kind of stage. So sure, there's a lot of pressure."

Ryan has been working with several campaign advisors to polish his delivery and to fully understand the various topics about domestic and foreign policy, but will have to put it all to the test Thursday. It's Ryan's one moment to shine before a national audience.

Additionally, Ryan will be forced to scale back his more bold rhetoric for a favorable and more electable campaign message — more moderate. Previously, Ryan took a bold stance against the budget, calling for deep cuts. Now, he will have to defend a more moderate plan.

Nevertheless, Ryan says he's ready for the challenge. He suggested to reporters that his youth will likely give him the upper hand against a 69-year-old former senator. However, Biden is not one to overlook. Oftentimes his gaffes and odd statements make people underestimate his abilities as a debater.

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Josh Furlong

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