Peter Cooke tests political waters against Gov. Herbert

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SALT LAKE CITY — Democrats are giddy over having a candidate for governor they think has a legitimate chance of challenging the reign of Republican dominance over the Utah statehouse that's now lasted more than a quarter of a century.

In Peter Cooke, they see a candidate with a formidable resume, an easy-going charisma and a message ripe for the picking.

But of course, two years ago, they saw the same characteristics in another Peter, and that didn't work out so well.

So does the retired two-star general have a real chance of moving into the governor's mansion next January? Here are five key factors that will answer that question:

First impressions matter

He is a virtual unknown, but that will soon change, and exactly how he becomes known in the coming days will be critical. People say they like to take careful measure of a candidate before they make up their minds, but in reality, we all are influenced by our first readings of a personality.

In the early stages of the coming-out party, he'll be "that military guy," something that is likely to be mostly, but not entirely positive. There is the connotation of someone who is honor and duty-bound with a record of leadership. But others might be wary of someone whose skills are forged in a culture of "I lead, you follow."

When the going gets tough

This is pretty much Peter Cooke's first rodeo. How he handles the rough-and-tumble of a campaign, particularly when the knives are drawn, will be crucial. Even in Utah, there is a back-alley arena in political races and those candidates who allow themselves to get too dirty, or who too much dirtying themselves, are eventually perceived as, well, dirty.

Some say Peter Corroon gave away any chance to beat Gov. Gary Herbert two years ago when his campaign "went negative" and attacked Herbert for his role in a UDOT bidding scandal. Critical for Peter Cooke is who he surrounds himself with, the advice they give, and the advice he chooses to take.

Pick your battles

Most races are won or lost on a single issue; re: "It's the economy, stupid." So far, the Cooke camp seems to be casting a pretty broad net and talking a lot about "leadership." That message will need to be honed. A leader is superfluous if there is no map to where the leader shall lead. The formal announcement of his candidacy referenced economic growth, education policy and air quality - all nice hot-button issues, but none, with the exception of air quality, where Republicans are particularly vulnerable.

It's one thing to accuse Republicans of surrendering in the battle for well-funded schools because our youth population is just too large and our tax base too small. It's another thing to come up with a clear and reasonable plan to remedy the situation.

On economic growth and prudent fiscal management, the GOP has, and will likely always have the Chamber of Commerce seal of approval. Can air quality rise to an issue of prominence? Only if it can rise above the perception that it's a cause embraced by environmental activists as part of a broader agenda. In other words, if he can make it a public health issue, not an environmental and regulatory issue, there's a shot.

Your enemy's enemies

Who will oppose Mr. Cooke, should he get the nomination, is still up for grabs, though it is hard to imagine at this point that Gov. Herbert will succumb to the attack from his party's right. Nevertheless, the GOP nomination battle, whether it is resolved at the state convention or in a statewide primary, promises to be boisterous and bruising, likely leaving the survivor with baggage that will carry over into the fall.

The message behind the message

Though Cooke himself has yet to emphasize it, the Democrats will try to make the virtues of two-party balance in government an over-arching issue. Party Chairman Jim Dabakis has devoted a large part, if not all of his stewardship so far, to spreading the message, "It's okay to be a Democrat --really."

In many ways, Cooke appears to be the perfect poster child for that cause. He is a Utah native with deep roots. His lack of political experience is a positive in the sense that he won't easily be branded by the sins of his Democratic brethren.

On the other hand, he will need to convince an increasingly apathetic base of Utah voters that 28 years of Republican dominance has left Utah a demonstrably worse place.

For Democrats, that's one hill that's been tough to take. It will be interesting to see how Major General Cooke chooses to mount his charge.