SALT LAKE CITY -- A question I get asked often is, "Who is going to win it all this year in the NBA?"

I ask fans that question every preseason and I always love hearing their answers. Heat, Thunder, Lakers, Bulls, and Mavericks are the most popular this year. The talking heads on TV all have similar picks as well. I think to myself, "Wow, what a loaded question."

Why? So many factors enter into being champions.

Experience, chemistry, luck, health, matchups and how much energy is used up in the first rounds of the playoffs all play a huge roll in defining a champion. It's definitely fun to guess and have an opinion, but let's be honest, it's a guess.

Let's take a look at last year for instance. Most people, if you polled fans in preseason, had the Heat or Lakers winning it all (okay some die hard Jazz fans had the Jazz). No one had the Mavericks in the beginning of the year to win the championship. Fast forward to April of last year and ask the question again and very similar results would have been found. We had the San Antonio Spurs who finished with the best record in the West and entered the playoffs with the No. 1 seed.

On paper, they're the best team in the West and should have the best odds of coming out of the west, right? Oh no, nobody had the Spurs going all the way. As it played out, fans were correct. The Memphis Grizzlies (an 8th seed), beat the Spurs in the first round of the playoffs.

What happened?

Ill-timed injuries and huge matchup problems were why the Grizzlies pulled off such a massive upset. Dallas ended up surprising the world with their playoff run and beating, the people's champion, the Miami Heat. Would Dallas have won it all if they would have played San Antonio in the first round? Match-up wise, San Antonio had the edge and would have had home court advantage as well. My guess, if playoff match-ups were different in the first rounds, Dallas doesn't win the championship.

So, ask me today, "Who is going to win it all this year?" All I can do is give you an educated guess and why I guessed the way I did. So, let's start with the Lakers. Can they win it all? I guess they have a slight chance but I say no way. Unless they land Howard from Orlando, their era of dominance in the NBA is over. Kobe Bryant, 33, is a step slower, Andrew Bynum has knee problems, Pau Gasol lacks desire and heart, and they traded their most versatile player, Lamar Odom, to the Mavericks!

So, then the Mavericks? Sorry, not this year. They have already been blown out by the Heat and Nuggets and they look disinterested. They lost their toughness in DeShawn Stevenson (Now with the New Jersey Nets). Lamar Odom will need the first month just to get his head clear of the trade, and Brendan Haywood is the Tyson Chandler (Now with the New York Knicks) of last year, but not as fast. Sorry Maverick fans, you guys are one and done.

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Heat draining suspense out of young season

That deflating sound you hear is the suspense beginning to leak out of the NBA season.

Jazz? Unfortunately, not this year. No experience and they lack the talent of a championship caliber team.

Who's next? Spurs? Again, no way. They will have a good season record-wise, but will fall short in playoffs. They're aging badly and not athletic enough to keep up with the young talent.

Oklahoma City? The Thunder actually they have a chance. Will they win, no. They have the best offensive player in the league in Kevin Durant, but lack championship experience and chemistry. Russell Westbrook's shot selection and decision-making are very questionable. Yes, he has some "oh, my" moments but turns the ball over way to much and doesn't get the ball where it needs to go down the stretch. Until OKC realizes that it's not about individual performances, but rather team basketball that wins championships, they will be wearing a ring anytime soon.

How about the Bulls? Yes, they have a chance. They have the best point guard in Derrick Rose, but as Jazz fans found out, Carlos Boozer is limited on the defensive end. If they can get another playmaker to tandem with Rose, not Richard Hamilton, then and only then, they will have a shot.

So, my guess this year is the Heat. On December 28, 2011, they are by far the best team right now. They have the most talent, speed, and hunger of any other team in the league. They have all the needed ingredients mentioned above for the recipe of a championship. In a shortened season, their youth and athleticism along with their drive to be the best will land them the title of best team in the NBA.

Well, it sure seems on paper they have it all. However, the same concerns that plague every team plague the Heat. Will they have a devastating injury? They might be playing terrible basketball come April. They might develop chemistry issues with all the egos.

This is why any team that makes the playoffs has a chance. In life, just like sports, all you want is a chance.

Bottom line, let's talk in April and even then, it's still going to be a guess.

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