From Ceiling to Floor

Jimmer Fredette remains the "mystery man" of this year's NBA Draft; is he a sure-fire top-ten pick, a high-teen lottery selection, or someone who will slip on Thursday night?

Everyone seems to have an opinion, but the opinions of the team executives for whom Fredette worked out have been uniformly positive. That feedback has led Jimmer to enter draft week brimming with confidence and positivity, based on those close to Fredette.

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Fredette went through sessions for the Pacers, Knicks, Kings, Suns and Jazz--five teams with picks ranging from 3rd (Jazz) to 17th (Knicks), with the Jazz also holding the #12 selection. Discounting that third pick for purposes of the following comparison, the above mentioned teams have essentially set the range for Fredette on draft night.

So, assuming a ceiling of 7th and a floor of 17th, and assuming the Jazz may have to look hard at Fredette with the 12th pick, let's take a look at all NBA Drafts since 1989, when the selection process was winnowed to two rounds.

We'll look at the 7th, 12th and 17th picks, and we'll see some hits, and misses, at all three spots. Certainly, the data will show that durable starters/major minute contributors are often if not always found at #7, while at #12 and #17, finding future starters is rare, indeed. The drop from top ten to mid-teens appears substantial.

Interestingly, you could argue that the 17s have done better than the 12s; in fact, only one player picked 12th played better than 30 minutes per game as a pro, while five players picked 17th played or are playing 30+ mpg. Matter of fact, that number matches the five #7s averaging 30+ mpg for their NBA careers.

Only three players picked 12th feature double-digit scoring averages; eight players picked 17th average 10+ points per game. Look at some of the #17s in the list: Shawn Kemp, Doug Christie, Jermaine O'Neal, Josh Smith, Danny Granger--it's a decent list. At #12, after Mookie Blaylock in 1989, you can't find a full-time starter in the bunch--of the recent picks, only Jason Thompson comes closest.

If Jimmer Fredette goes anywhere from 7th to 17th, expectations for his pro career will have to be viewed through the prism created below. He will certainly be able to perform at least as well as some of the lesser lights listed, while the upper echelons of of performance should not be considered out of his reach.

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