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NORTHERN UTAH -- Highway crews this week are tackling an unusual problem on the Monte Cristo Highway between Huntsville and Randolph. They're cutting a path though a deep snowpack that is still five to 10 feet deep in the middle of June.
"We're probably a month behind," said Bill Smith of the Utah Department of Transportation. Standing on the road in a pathway cut by giant snowblowers, Smith said, "We usually have it open by Memorial Day." Has he ever seen this much snow? "This time of year? No," Smith said. "This is an extraordinary year."
In spite of the deep snow still lingering at high elevations, nature may have one more unusual card to play--after months of flood warnings, there's now a real chance Utah can avoid severe, widespread damage. Unusually low temperatures are allowing a gradual snowmelt, and the distinctly non-summer-like weather may continue long enough to alleviate the threat.
Temperatures five to 10 degrees below normal have persisted so far in June. That has kept the rate of snowmelt to the equivalent of an inch to an inch-and-a-half of water each day throughout Northern Utah. "And that's gotten rid of the low elevation snow and eaten a good chunk of the middle elevation snow away," said hydrologist Brian McInerney of the National Weather Service.
While several areas have had to deal with high water in recent weeks, many more streams and rivers would be forced out of their banks if Utah were experiencing typical June temperatures.
Now, with about half the snowpack gone, an improbable scenario seems quite possible; it may stay cool enough, long enough, to melt away the flood threat a little at a time.
The optimistic scenario involves temperatures in the "Goldilocks zone"--not too hot, not too cold. It needs to be warm enough to maintain significant snow melt but cool enough to keep the runoff gradual. Utah has been solidly in the "Goldilocks zone" for weeks.
"If we do have temperatures five to 10 degrees below normal all the way through June," McInerney said, "0ur flood threat will go away. The question is, is that possible or is it probable?"
Probabilities weigh heavily against the Goldilocks scenario. But the forecast makes it look possible. "We're looking at five to 10 degrees below normal for as far as we can see," McInerney said, "which will bring us into the third week of June."
A betting person might say, "It's June. It's Utah. It will probably get too hot." But this is a year when the weather went from improbable to possible to incredibly true.
"Absolutely," McInerney said. "This whole winter has been improbable, depending on how we look at it."
Improbable as it may seem, Utah is in the "Goldilocks Zone," at least for now.
E-mail: hollenhorst@ksl.com
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