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SALT LAKE CITY -- Economic forecasts can be like weather forecasts: Sometimes it's difficult to get them exactly right.
Natalie Gochnour, the Executive VP and Chief Economist for the Salt Lake Chamber put it this way: "I've been a student of the Utah economy for about 25 years. I have never seen a time with so much complexity and uncertainty."
The Salt Lake Chamber has teamed up with CB Richard Ellis, the world's largest commercial real estate firm, to release a biannual report on the outlook of Utah's economy. It's a tool to help large and small businesses in their future planning.
According to Mark Bouchard, Senior Managing Director of CB Richard Ellis, "It provides a resource to the business community that we think allows for the opportunity for key decision makers to look forward considering many economic factors that go into fundamental decision making."
"Although improvement has been gradual, Utah is among a handful of states leading the nation's economic recovery," the report states.
The report, released Thursday, includes data from state, federal and private entities, as well as analysis from the chamber. The report factors in all issues that can affect the economy, including global conflicts, national issues and how it all connects to the local picture.
The timing of this first report comes one year after the number of jobs in Utah began increasing, following the recession.
So where are we now?
"The Utah economy has now been growing for the past 12 consecutive months," Gochnour said. "We expect the Salt Lake metro economy to continue to improve, albeit slowly, throughout the remainder of the year."
The Utah economy has now been growing for the past 12 consecutive months. We expect the Salt Lake metro economy to continue to improve, albeit slowly, throughout the remainder of the year.
–Natalie Gochnour, Salt Lake Chamber
That outlook is based on several things on the horizon: The huge City Creek Center, which will open next March; the federal courthouse expansion; the new national security agency project; and others. All are expected to generate many jobs, as many already have, and serve as a magnet for future growth. These are all areas that other neighboring states are still struggling with.
The stable housing market has been a key component to the county's economic recovery, the report states, though home prices could continue to decline as the market is slow to absorb excess homes for sale.
Utah's economy grew at an average of 3.5 percent over the past five years, but that growth is not enough to significantly lower the state's unemployment rate (7.6 percent in March) in the near future, according to the report. Unemployment in the Beehive State is still lower than the national average of 8.9 percent.
The Governor's Office of Planning and Budget projects unemployment will fall to 7.1 percent in 2011.
From March 2010 of March 2011, Utah job growth was 1.6 percent, compared with 1 percent nationally. Personal income in the state was up 1.3 percent in 2010 over the previous year.
Utah's exports were up 36 percent by dollar volume in 2010, compared with 2009 levels, and they're expected to grow another 9 percent this year, the report states.
A bright spot in the commercial real estate industry is industrial property, which has a vacancy rate of 8.6 percent, compared with the national average of 13.3 percent, the report states.
The chamber expects an increase in taxable retail sales in Salt Lake County of 4.7 percent in 2011 and 5.4 percent in 2012.
"The good news for Utah is simply this: That in almost every measure we are outperforming national averages significantly," Bouchard said.
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Story written by Keith McCord and Amanda Verzello.
