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Tokyo, Dec. 20 (Jiji Press)--The government said Wednesday it has lowered its estimate for Japan's total fertility rate in its new long-term forecast for the country's population.
The rate, which represents the average number of children born to each woman during her life, is estimated at 1.26 for 2055, down steeply from 1.39 in the previous 50-year population forecast announced in 2002, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research said.
Under the new forecast, Japan's population in 2055 is estimated at 89.93 million, down 38 million from 127.77 million in 2005.
By age group, the population aged zero to 14 years is expected to fall 10 million, while the number of those aged 15 to 64 is projected to drop 38 million. The population of those aged 65 or more is seen increasing 11 million to 36.46 million, or two out of five people.
The government institute steeply revised down the fertility rate to reflect the recent uptrend in the percentage of unmarried people, including those who marry late in life or choose not to marry. The new rate also took into account a recent increase in the number of people who divorce young.
The rate fell to a postwar record of 1.26 in 2005. During the coming five decades, it is seen sinking as low as 1.21 in 2010 before rebounding slightly to recover the 2005 level in 2055.
The institute also announced optimistic and pessimistic projections, under which the estimates for the 2055 rate were 1.55 and 1.06, respectively.
A smaller and older population leads to a decrease in the labor force while undermining the social security system. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare will start work to calculate the impact of the new fertility rate on Japan's pension system.END
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