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I just had a question regarding average high temperatures in the salt lake area. I understand that averages are composed from the last 30 years (1970-2000) and that new averages will be refigured in 2010. From what I understand we have had above average temperatures frequently since 2000. Is it reasonable to estimate that a new average high for the last 30 years will go up in 2010? What would you guess the new Salt lake average high will be in 2010? For example weather.com reports that the average high for salt lake in August is 88 degrees. Would you estimate that in 2010 when the new average for the last 30 years in August would go up to 90 degrees or so versus the older 88 degrees? Also if the average temperature is going up all year round, how would that affect our average snow totals because warmer air carries more moisture? I appreciate your time. Kevin L **********************************************************
You are correct that the new averages come out every 10 years so we won't have new ones until 2010. If we look at averages for the past year for example, just looking at even last month, it came in as cooler than average. I don't think it's fair to estimate anything as far as an increase in averages goes until we're closer to the end of the time period and we have more data.
If the averages prove to have increased then surely, they will go up for our monthly averages. Your example is too high though, to have our average in August go from 88 to 90 degrees we'd have to each August in that 10 year data set be 2 degrees above the normal!
We can't pull up every August's calculated averages without having to fork over some $ so we'll have to look at the yearly averages for the past couple of years. Check the link on the right to that table. It does indeed show the past few years have had above yearly average tempreatures with the exception of 2002. But depending on how much each month breaks down, to jump 2 degrees on an average for an August you'd have to have each August be very warm.
You asked about if our yearly temperatures are going up then how would it affect the snow? Well, it's tough to say. Snow totals for the past 10 years have been all over the place from way above average to way below so it ends up evening out. If our winter months continue to warm in the city, then yes, it could potentially affect the amount of snow that hits the ground since it wouldn't melt and the storm could bring more rain instead of snow. The warmer air carrying more moisture, I don't really think that would be a factor, in fact, if we went with that theory, if our air temperatures were warmer then all of our warm storms would have a ton of snow with them! Cold air can have a good deal of snow it and so can warmer storms (storms where the temperatures border 32 degrees).
As far as estimates go, you'll hear none from here until we have more data and are closer to end of the 10 year period.
Answered by KSL Meteorologist Dina Freedman.
