Senate kicks off marathon debate for Mike Lee's election bill — but it could still fail

SALT LAKE CITY — After months of Republican infighting and tense debate about congressional procedure, the Senate is moving forward this week on the SAVE America Act, the sweeping election reform bill being pushed by Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, and the president's top allies in Congress.

The Senate will hold its first procedural vote sometime Tuesday afternoon, those familiar with the schedule told the Deseret News, kickstarting what could be days, or even weeks, of debate on the floor. But it will still be an uphill battle for the bill to ultimately pass the chamber, as it still lacks the support needed to overcome the Senate filibuster.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., will tee up a procedural vote known as a "motion to proceed" on Tuesday, which requires only a simple majority to advance. At least one Republican, Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, said he would oppose, noting the ultimate result is likely to fail.

"I actually think there's more risk than there's reward," Tillis told reporters of the strategy last week. "I'm going to do everything I can to prevent it from even moving on."

Two other Republicans, Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, have declined to say how they'll vote. But if both are "no," it will require Vice President JD Vance to cast a tiebreaking vote.

From there, the Senate will immediately go into unlimited debate — which could get messy. Senators will have the opportunity to introduce amendments, using those to push the opposing party into a corner on certain issues.

For example, Republicans are likely to force votes on adding language to restrict transgender surgeries for children and banning biological males from participating in women's sports, two key culture-war issues that President Donald Trump told the party to add to the sweeping election bill.

Meanwhile, Democrats could put forth amendments to rein in Trump's war powers in Iran and other issues they could use to campaign against Republicans in the midterm elections.

But the process will require both parties to be on high alert and to keep senators on or near the floor to fight off any political shenanigans.

The final process could take days, if not weeks, to complete. It will only come to an end once Lee and other proponents decide to allow for a cloture vote — a procedure that requires 60 senators to vote in favor of ending debate.

And after all is said and done, that vote is expected to fail as it would require at least seven Democrats to cross party lines to support — something they've remained adamant not to do. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., railed against the bill in a press call on Sunday afternoon, calling it an effort to "steal" the midterms.

"(Trump) knows his numbers are in the gutter. What does he want to do? He wants to cheat," Schumer said. "He knows that without rigging the game, he is in trouble."

While the debate process goes on, the Senate will be limited in what other business it can do while amendment votes proceed. Senators could technically call a vote to divert attention to other legislation, but that may be unlikely as Republicans will want to keep as much momentum going as possible.

Even then, if the SAVE America Act does fail in the end, it's still not clear if Lee and other Trump allies will let up. Conservative Republicans in the House have ramped up pressure on their side to say they won't consider any piece of legislation until the Senate passes the election bill. Trump has also said he won't sign anything until the SAVE America Act reaches his desk.

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