- Utah State Aggies' NCAA Tournament hopes are threatened by recent offensive struggles.
- After two losses, the Aggies find themselves on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
- Head coach Calhoun cites poor half-court offense and inconsistent shooting as issues.
LOGAN — Through the first 16 games of Utah State's season, everything looked rosy.
The Aggies boasted a conference-best 15-1 record, an Associated Press Top 25 ranking, and a two-headed monster of all-conference guards in Mason Falslev and MJ Collins Jr., with the latter looking like the best player in the league at a 20-point per game clip.
Their lone slip-up came in early December when the Aggies fell to South Florida in a Quad 1 matchup on the road. Since then, the Aggies averaged 89 points per game, with an average margin of victory of 23 points. All was well in Logan, and sights were already set on March.
In the span of just four days and two games, two losses have brought those sights crashing back to the present. After an 84-74 loss at Grand Canyon and an 86-76 loss to UNLV at home, Utah State now finds itself squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble, a place that felt foreign to them merely a week ago.
"We didn't make winning plays, we just didn't play hard enough in the second half and execute at a high enough level to win the game," forward Karson Templin said after a loss to UNLV.
After leading by 14 with 12:44 to play, Templin and the Aggies were outscored 42-18 to finish the game, with the Runnin' Rebels connecting on 12 of their final 15 shots.
"You've got to give (UNLV) a lot of credit, first and foremost. Secondly, there's just no excuses to play the way we did," head coach Jerrod Calhoun said. "It's a collective effort. I thought we got outcoached, we got outplayed, and, obviously, our worst loss since I've been the coach here, for sure."
Utah State shot 22% from the 3-point line in the second half and only marginally better at 29% in the game, its second straight game shooting below 30% from deep after hitting just 25% of threes against Grand Canyon.
Shooting fluctuations are not an unknown demon for the Aggies, as their current stretch is now the third time this season where they've shot below 30% from three for two or more consecutive games.
Conversely, Utah State has hit 50% or more of its threes in nine of its 18 total games.
"You're dealing with 18- to 23-year-old kids; they're very inconsistent. There's going to be a lot of highs and lows throughout a season," Calhoun said. "It is what it is. Keep shooting them, try to go rebound them. … If we miss them, we miss them."
The recent offensive slump has come at an additional cost in Collins, who went from averaging nearly 20 points per game on over 49% shooting to just 13 points on 34% over his last three games.
"When you're averaging 20 (points) a game, good coaches and good players, they don't like that, so they're going to be physical with you. You're part of the game plan," Calhoun said. "He's never been part of any game plan. … I think he'll get better with that, but we need some other guys to step up as well, because he is being really bodied and checked."
In a similar story to that of a season ago, opposing defenses are realizing that limiting off-ball action and open looks for the Aggies' primary shooter — Ian Martinez last year and now Collins — greatly limits its half-court offense and rhythm. Additionally, when Utah State is forced to play in the half-court with limited actions, rather than in transition, the offense slows down.
After Collins hit a 3-pointer to tie the game at 73-73 with 3:27 remaining, Utah State's final seven possessions included as many made shots as turnovers (one), with six of the seven possessions coming after a UNLV basket.
"Anything in a half court, we have to get better. This team is a horrific half-court offensive team, to be honest with you," Calhoun said. "One of the worst I've had in my last five years."
In a further similarity to Calhoun's first campaign a year ago, back-to-back conference losses have the Aggies exposed and on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
This year, it came a month earlier and against lesser opponents. With 13 regular-season games remaining before the Mountain West Tournament, Utah State will need to find some answers quickly for its stumbling offense if it hopes to climb back into the field of conference play and Big Dance contenders.
