Estimated read time: 6-7 minutes
The AFC's two top teams are home underdogs in Week 15.
That sums up the state of the NFL in 2025. There are no dominant teams and even the ones with the best records still have much to prove.
The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots each are 11-2 and both teams have a 10-game winning streak.
But the Broncos are 2 1/2-point underdogs against the Green Bay Packers (9-3-1) on Sunday and the Patriots are 1-point underdogs against the Buffalo Bills (9-4) in a divisional rematch.
Pro Picks breaks down all the games.
Line: Panthers minus 2 1/2
The Panthers control their playoff hopes. They already lost at home to the Saints and won't overlook them after New Orleans won in Tampa Bay last week. Bryce Young had an excellent game in a stunning upset over the Rams before a bye. Carolina has lost 11 straight games as a favorite and failed to cover the spread in each one. Tyler Shough is 2-3 as a starter with both wins on the road against the Panthers and Buccaneers.
BEST BET: PANTHERS: 23-17
Line: Rams minus 5 1/2
Jared Goff is 2-1 against Matthew Stafford, including a playoff win, since they were traded for each other. But the Rams got their Super Bowl victory with Stafford while the Lions are still trying to get to one. They've got a tough road to even get in the playoffs, starting this week. Goff and coach Dan Campbell are 23-12 ATS as underdogs. The Rams are 16-3 ATS in December since 2021. Something has to give.
UPSET SPECIAL: LIONS: 27-26
Line: Buccaneers minus 4 1/2
Kirk Cousins beat the Buccaneers twice last season, throwing for 785 yards, eight touchdowns and only one interception. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are coming off a terrible loss at home to New Orleans. They have to get on track after losing four of five but the Falcons won't be a pushover. The Bucs are 2-9 in night games with Mayfield and coach Todd Bowles.
BUCCANEERS: 23-22
Line: Ravens minus 2 1/2
Maybe facing the league's worst defense will get Lamar Jackson going. The Ravens have no margin for error after a tough loss to the Steelers. Joe Burrow and the Bengals are playing spoiler. They already won in Baltimore on Thanksgiving. Jackson is 6-2 against Burrow.
RAVENS: 29-24
Line: Bills minus 1
The Bills opened 4-0 before the Patriots beat them at home in Week 4. New England has kept on winning. It feels like Josh Allen vs. Drake Maye is going to be a battle for AFC East supremacy for years. While the Bills rallied in a snowstorm to beat Burrow and the Bengals last week, the Patriots rested. Mike Vrabel's teams in Tennessee were 6-1 overall and 6-1 against the spread off a bye.
BILLS: 27-24
Line: Giants minus 2
Quarterback Jayden Daniels will sit out Washington's game after aggravating his injured left elbow. He's been beat up all season and the Commanders have lost eight in a row. Jaxson Dart is taking his share of shots for the Giants, who've lost seven straight. Someone has to win.
GIANTS: 24-20
Line: Bears minus 7 1/2
Shedeur Sanders has made the Browns watchable. Myles Garrett needs three sacks to set the single-season record. Caleb Williams and the Bears can't afford to look past Cleveland with three tough games coming up. Chicago is 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10 games after facing Green Bay. But these aren't the same Bears.
BEARS: 20-13
Line: Chiefs minus 4 1/2
Coming off an overtime win against Philadelphia, the Chargers go for a sweep of a Chiefs team that's on the verge of elimination. Patrick Mahomes and Co. ran out of margin for error. They need to win out and get plenty of help. Chiefs are 9-17 ATS in Mahomes' last 26 starts.
CHIEFS: 22-20
Line: Eagles minus 11
The Raiders are the remedy the Eagles need to snap a three-game losing streak. Jalen Hurts is coming off a five-turnover performance and the calls for backup Tanner McKee to replace the reigning Super Bowl MVP are getting louder in Philly.
EAGLES: 30-13
Line: Jaguars minus 13
The Jets are a disaster under rookie coach Aaron Glenn while the Jaguars' first-year coach, Liam Coen, turned the team around quickly. The Jets are 1-14 in their last 15 games against teams in Florida.
JAGUARS: 27-13
Line: Texans minus 9 1/2
Trey McBride is trying to become the first tight end to lead the league in receptions since Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez in 2004. That's the lone bright spot for the Cardinals. Houston's No. 1 defense will make it difficult on Jacoby Brissett.
TEXANS: 22-13
Line: Packers minus 2 1/2
Jordan Love, Micah Parsons and the Packers just beat the Bears to regain first place in the NFC North and face Chicago on the road next week. They can't look ahead with a trip to Denver in between. This is a potential Super Bowl preview. The Broncos have come back to win nine games during their 10-game winning streak. The Packers under coach Matt LaFleur are 10-2 ATS after playing the Bears.
PACKERS: 21-17
Line: 49ers minus 12 1/2
The Titans ran all over the Browns to earn their second win. The 49ers have been winning despite missing their best defensive players. But Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle are healthy and carrying the offense.
49ERS: 30-16
Line: Seahawks minus 13 1/2
The Colts have gone from 7-1 to signing Philip Rivers out of a five-year retirement. They're in full panic mode, doing whatever it takes to get to the playoffs. The Seahawks are one of the most balanced teams in the NFL with a stifling defense and top-10 offense.
SEAHAWKS: 24-13
Line: Cowboys minus 6
J.J. McCarthy is coming off his best game and Minnesota's defense is tough enough to keep the Vikings close. With the Eagles reeling, the Cowboys still have a shot to win the NFC East. But they have to win out and it starts against the Vikings.
COWBOYS: 23-18
Line: Steelers minus 3 1/2
The Dolphins have won four straight games behind a strong rushing attack and improved defense to stay alive in the playoff chase. The Steelers are coming off a big win in Baltimore that put them back in first place in the AFC North. They can't let up against Miami.
STEELERS: 22-17
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Last week: Straight up: 9-5. Against spread: 10-4.
Overall: Straight up: 149-58-1. Against spread: 106-96-6.
Prime time: Straight up: 28-18-1. Against spread: 20-27.
Best Bet: Straight up: 10-4. Against spread: 7-6-1.
Upset Special: Straight up: 11-3. Against spread: 11-3.
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Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
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