Our (final) Pac-12 bowl projections: Oregon to host CFP game, USC to the Alamo

The most anticipated weekend of the college football season is fast approaching, with Championship Saturday followed by Selection Sunday.

The College Football Playoff field will be revealed at 9 a.m. (Pacific), followed hours later by a steady stream of bowl announcements that cannot become official until the conferences and bowls know which teams are available.

By mid-afternoon, we should have a solid grasp on the destinations for the eight Pac-12 legacy teams that have qualified for the postseason.

Here's a primer on the process, for the uninitiated:

— Although the conference dissolved in 2024, bowl officials and remaining Pac-12 executives determined it would be far less complicated to maintain the Pac-12 tie-ins than to reconfigure bowl arrangements based on the post-realignment conference structure.

(The plan also served the conference's remaining members, Washington State and Oregon State.)

As a result, any Pac-12 legacy teams that don't qualify for the CFP will be bound for the Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun or LA bowls, or participate in a bowl operated by ESPN Events.

— One important change was made to the process. With the teams scattered across the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and Pac-12, overall record, not conference record, is used to set the selection order.

— However, the so-called "one-win-down rule" still applies. That means the Pac-12's partner bowls can pass over one team for another as long as there is no more than a one-game difference in record. (A 7-5 team could get picked ahead of an 8-4 team, for example.)

— One element has not changed over the years: Repeat participants are avoided at all costs. In fact, bowl officials typically prefer teams that have not participated in their game in at least three years, if possible.

— There are eight bowl-eligible teams from the collection of Pac-12 legacy schools but only five bowl tie-ins. Oregon is likely headed to the playoff, leaving two teams without a spot. Those teams will fill vacancies in other games or be placed in one of several bowls operated by ESPN Events.

Now, to the Hotline's latest projections ...

Last week's edition can be found here.

(All times Pacific)

College Football Playoff

Date: Dec. 20/21 (ESPN/ABC or TNT)

Team: Oregon vs. Group of Five champ

Comment: Everything is falling into place for the Ducks (11-1), who are tracking toward the sweetest seed in the bracket: No. 5, which would allow them to host an opening-round game against the Group of Five champion (e.g., North Texas or Tulane) and then, with a win, advance to face the No. 4 seed (likely Texas Tech) in the quarterfinals.

Alamo Bowl

Team: USC vs. Big 12

Date: Dec. 30 at 6 p.m. (ESPN)

Comment: When the Hotline adds nine (USC wins) plus zero (prior USC appearances in the Alamo Bowl) plus three (decades USC coach Lincoln Riley lived in Texas), the result is 99 (percent chance the Trojans end up in San Antonio).

Las Vegas Bowl

Team: Utah vs. Big Ten

Date: Dec. 31 at 12:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Comment: We suspect the Las Vegas Bowl officials would be thrilled to land the Utes, who have 10 wins this season, a passionate fan base and a compelling story that will generate ticket sales within that fan base: It could be coach Kyle Whittingham's final game.

Holiday Bowl

Team: Arizona (vs. ACC)

Date: Jan. 2 at 5 p.m. Fox

Comment: The Wildcats (9-3) could slip to the Sun Bowl if the Holiday selects Washington, but the hot team that's a short, cheap flight from San Diego makes more sense than a lukewarm team from the Pacific Northwest.

Sun Bowl

Team: Arizona State vs. ACC

Date: Dec. 31 at 11 a.m. (CBS)

Comment: The added complexity on this tier of games involves Washington, which played in the Sun Bowl last year and therefore isn't a viable option. If Arizona goes to San Diego, the Sun Devils (8-4) are pretty much a lock for El Paso.

LA Bowl

Team: Washington (vs. Mountain West)

Date: Dec. 13 at 5 p.m. ABC

Comment: As we see it, the Huskies (8-4) are headed to Los Angeles to face Boise State or UNLV — such is the lasting impact of the loss to Wisconsin. Had they won in Madison, the Holiday would be very much in play.

ESPN bowl/at-large

Team: Cal

Comment: The Bears (7-5) could be assigned to the pool of ESPN-operated games available to Pac-12 legacy teams (Armed Forces, First Responders or Gasparilla). Or they could get shipped to the far corners to fill a vacancy in Hawaii or Boise or the Canary Islands. (We're joking about that last one, mostly.)

ESPN bowl/at large

Team: Washington State

Comment: It wouldn't be the bowl season without the Cougars (6-6), who have qualified in nine of the past 10 years (excluding 2020) and clinched their spot with a blowout victory over Oregon State. If the Potato Bowl (in Boise) has a vacancy, WSU would make sense.

Non-qualifier

Team: Colorado

Comment: At least the Buffaloes (3-9) only have two nonconference road games next season against Power Four opponents (Northwestern and Georgia Tech) ... and not three. It could be another long fall in Boulder.

Non-qualifier

Team: Oregon State

Comment: The JaMarcus Shephard era cannot be worse than the Trent Bray era for the Beavers (2-10), unless he hires the wrong coordinators and whiffs on the strength coach. And then it will be as bad, if not worse.

Non-qualifier

Team: Stanford

Comment: Tavita Pritchard has a chance to elevate Stanford early in his tenure, but only if he gets the requisite support from the administration. Otherwise, the Cardinal (4-8) will continue to flounder, even in the wide open ACC.

Non-qualifier

Team: UCLA

Comment: The Bruins (3-9) are banking on new coach Bob Chesney being Curt Cignetti 2.0 when, in fact, their backgrounds are quite different over and beyond the success at James Madison. Unlike many others, we aren't convinced Chesney is a home run hire.

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