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The College Football Playoff selection process with off-the-rails potential took a turn for the routine in the first game of Championship Saturday as Texas Tech lambasted BYU for the second time and made the committee's task a tad easier.
The Big 12 blowout secured an opening-round bye for the Red Raiders and ended BYU's hope of climbing into the 12-team field. In their only games against playoff-caliber opponents — the double dip against Texas Tech that were effectively CFP auditions — the Cougars went 0-2 and were outscored 63-14.
As a result, the Big 12 will send one team to the playoff for the second consecutive year. Oregon will remain the No. 5 seed and host an opening-round game, and the selection committee will ponder one, and perhaps two controversial issues before unveiling the field at 9 a.m. (Pacific) on Sunday:
— Alabama, Notre Dame or Miami?
In the penultimate rankings released Tuesday evening, the ninth-ranked Crimson Tide (10-3) were one spot ahead of the Irish (10-2), who were two ahead of the Hurricanes (10-2).
There is only room for two of the three.
Alabama lost decisively to Georgia in the SEC championship. Would the committee actually punish the SEC's runner-up for losing an extra game to a team it beat on the road earlier in the season? (Alabama won at Georgia in September.)
But if the Crimson Tide remains in the at-large field, the committee must choose the Irish or Hurricanes for the final spot. Notre Dame is ranked higher; Miami won the head-to-head matchup; and they have the same record.
Would the committee drop Notre Dame out of the field and elevate Miami into the playoff even though both were idle and neither resume changed?
But if the status quo holds and the Irish make the cut, would that send a message to Power Four teams that head-to-head results in nonconference games don't matter a lick?
Whatever happens, there will be outrage.
— Duke or James Madison?
The Blue Devils defeated Virginia in overtime in the ACC championship and would, under normal circumstances, be a lock for one of the five automatic bids. But they are unranked and have five losses, while James Madison is No. 25 and has one loss.
Tulane is already in the CFP field as a Group of Five winner.
Will the committee give the final automatic bid to the Dukes, sending two Group of Five teams into the field and shunning a Power Four champion?
Or will the Blue Devils vault JMU despite the five losses?
Other than the final automatic qualifier spot and the last two at-large berths, the field is set.
Our forecast for the playoff and Pac-12 legacy bowls …
CFP field
First, let's group the teams by projected seed tiers.
— No. 1-4 seeds (opening-round byes): Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia and Texas Tech
— No. 5-8 seeds (home games): Oregon, Mississippi, Texas A&M and Oklahoma
— No. 9-12 seeds (road games), Notre Dame, Alabama, Tulane and James Madison
Now, the expected pairings.
(Home team listed first)
No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Notre Dame. A marquee matchup with one of the nation's best defenses against the powerhouse Irish offense. Winner plays No. 1 Ohio State
No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Alabama. We don't believe the selection committee will drop Alabama from the field for losing to a team (Georgia) it already beat. Winner plays No. 2 Indiana
No. 6 Mississippi vs. No. 11 Tulane. This would be a rematch of the Rebels' 35-point victory in September. Have the dynamics changed enough with Mississippi coach Lane Kiffin's departure to give the Green Wave a chance? Winner plays No. 3 Georgia
No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 James Madison. The home playoff game the Ducks have wanted all season sets them up for a berth in the quarterfinals. Winner plays No. 4 Texas Tech
Pac-12 legacy bowls
Invitations will be extended and matchups revealed after the playoff selections, although several pairings are known.
Here's what to expect for the Pac-12 legacy teams, in order of bowl selection.
College Football Playoff: Oregon. The Ducks secured their spot in the CFP when they beat Washington in the regular season finale. Autzen Stadium will be bedlam.
Alamo Bowl: USC. Although not official, the Trojans will make their first appearance in the Alamo Bowl and face an opponent from the Big 12. With nine wins, a top-25 ranking and a coach (Lincoln Riley) who's from Lubbock, the Trojans check every box on the Alamo's list.
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah. With 10 wins, the Utes could have climbed into the Alamo but instead will return to the site of a 14-7 loss to Northwestern two years ago. This version, against an unannounced Big Ten opponent (perhaps Nebraska), should have more juice, especially if coach Kyle Whittingham reveals in coming days that he's retiring after the game.
Holiday Bowl: Arizona. The Wildcats finished with a five-game winning streak and expect to be rewarded with a trip to San Diego to face an ACC opponent. They last participated in the Holiday in 2009 and were embarrassed in a 33-0 loss to Nebraska.
Sun Bowl: Arizona State. It's not the CFP, but El Paso is a respectable destination given the injuries that derailed ASU's drive for another Big 12 title. The Sun Devils defeated Florida State in the Sun Bowl in 2019 and will face an ACC foe this time, as well — just not the Seminoles.
LA Bowl: Washington. UW's participation in the Sun Bowl last year means it won't be heading to El Paso. Assuming the Holiday selects Arizona, the Huskies are bound for SoFi Stadium on Dec. 13 and will face Mountain West champ Boise State.
Hawaii Bowl: Cal. This is official, with the Bears having accepted an invitation to face Hawaii in Honolulu on Christmas Eve. It doubles as a homecoming for Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who grew up in Ewa Beach, and for interim coach Nick Rolovich, who coached Hawaii in the 2010s.
At-large bowl: Washington State. The Cougars could participate in a bowl operated by ESPN Events (Armed Forces or First Responders) or fill a vacancy elsewhere. Geography is considered, meaning WSU could play in the Potato Bowl or New Mexico Bowl.
Additionally, four teams are not eligible: Colorado, Oregon State, Stanford and UCLA
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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
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