SALT LAKE CITY — The best time of year is upon us! After a long, seven-month offseason, college football is finally here and I am excited to be back at KSL.com writing BYU and Utah previews again this season.
New this fall, we are adding a third weekly preview with the national game of the week.
The only Power Four vs. Power Four matchup in Week Zero is taking place overseas as Big 12 "Farmageddon" rivals Kansas State and Iowa State face off in Dublin, Ireland.
Iowa State just completed their best season in school history by notching double-digit wins for the first time, while Kansas State is riding consecutive 9-4 seasons with their eyes on their first-ever playoff bid.
In my 14 years writing Pick Six Previews magazine, this Big 12 race is the most wide-open league I have ever covered. At Big 12 media days, the coaches selected these two teams as their picks to play for the league title in Dallas. And with the 12-team playoff awarding an automatic bid to Power Four conference winners, this game carries some playoff stakes.
The 2025 college football season officially kicks off Saturday in Ireland (10 a.m. MDT, ESPN).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): Kansas State 66.1 (11th of 68 Power 4) | Iowa State 57.6 (21st)
2024 season: Kansas State 61.3 (20th) | Iowa State 64.3 (16th)
2025 Projection: Kansas State (25th) | Iowa State (34th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Kansas State to finish sixth in a wide-open Big 12 race, with Iowa State right behind them at seventh. Both made the top 40 board, with Kansas State drawing the last spot in the top 25.
Kansas State with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Kansas State offense (2024): 16th of 68 Power 4 (37th passing, 2nd rushing)
Iowa State defense (2024): 42nd of 68 Power 4 (12th passing, 62nd rushing)
Last year, the Kansas State offense set school records for the highest yards/play (6.6) and highest yards/carry (6.1) in program history. Workhorse running back DJ Giddens departs, but they will again feature a dynamic trio with Joe Jackson, the electric Dylan Edwards, and Nebraska transfer Gabe Ervin.
Up front they must replace three starters, but they added two Big Ten linemen transfers and this new line is bigger than most recent Kansas State units with almost the entire two-deep over 300 pounds.
They have a strong track record here of building offensive lines and power rushing attacks, and that should continue into 2025 despite losing coordinator Conor Riley to the NFL.
Avery Johnson enters his second full season as the starter. In his debut, he broke the school record for passing touchdowns in a season and added 605 yards rushing. His speed crushes defenses on third-down scrambles and on designed runs.
This mismatch will decide the game: Kansas State's rushing offense against Iowa State's rushing defense. Iowa State ranked in the bottom 10 in my opponent-adjusted rushing defense last year, and they now lose four of their top five defensive linemen.
Iowa State with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Iowa State offense (2024): 37th of 68 Power 4 (45th passing, 32nd rushing)
Kansas State defense (2024): 32nd of 68 Power 4 (43rd passing, 25th rushing)
Is there a more clutch quarterback in college football? Rocco Becht led four gutsy game-winning drives last year to beat Iowa, UCF, Utah, and then Miami in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.
Becht returns after stacking consecutive 3,000-yard seasons, but the offense must replace their starting receivers. Last year, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel finished as one of the nation's top duos of 1,000-yard receivers (with Ohio State), but both are now gone.
The offensive line was dead last nationally (133rd in my offensive line run push in 2023), and last year only saw modest gains up to 102nd. That must improve if Iowa State wants to return to the title game in Dallas.
That line must go against a Kansas State front seven that is packed with returning starters and potential All-Big 12 candidates. Chiddi Obiazor and Tobi Osunsanmi are a strong one-two punch at end, the entire defensive tackle two-deep returns, and the linebacker duo of Desmond Purnell and All-Big 12 Austin Romaine remains a strength.
While it is hard to put a number on Becht's late-game magic, I like the second-year coordinator bonus and trends on this Kansas State defense better.
Game prediction
Kansas State will have the advantage on both lines of scrimmage. Their rushing attack and speedy dual-threat quarterback face a 2024 bottom 10 rushing defense that lost four of their top defensive linemen.
Iowa State thrives when they feature a veteran starting lineup. Last year, they had 20 returning starters and won 11 games. This year they only have nine returning starters and are outside my preseason top 25.
Kansas State 27 | Iowa State 21
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Brett Ciancia
