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SALT LAKE CITY — The best time of the year is upon us. It's an honor to be back at KSL.com with my weekly in-season role covering both BYU and Utah.
BYU's 11-year independence era is finished and they now enter the Power Five level, while Utah looks to win a third straight Pac-12 title. And of course, the latest round of conference realignment placed the two rivals on a collision course in the expanded 16-team Big 12 in 2024.
Before that, though, we need to enjoy the 2023 season as it will be the end of an era in college football. This is the final year of the four-team playoff format, the last season of Pac-12 football (after 108 years), and the last time seeing Texas and Oklahoma in their traditional Big 12 footprint.
The 12th annual Pick Six Previews season preview magazine was released in July, and I have Utah projected to return to Las Vegas for the Pac-12 title — and win it for a third straight season. Like last preseason, USC is the odds-on favorite, but, yet again, I am taking Utah.
Utah's run at a three-peat could hinge on a few key statistical categories like the ones analyzed here. For more position-by-position breakdowns, advanced stats, coordinator grades, and trends, check out the full magazine.
QB Rating (29th of 131 FBS teams in 2022)
The Pac-12 is saving its best season for last, as the farewell tour features four teams in my national top 12. That strength at the top, and depth across the league, is due to the star power at quarterback. The Pac-12 returns a Heisman winner (USC's Caleb Williams), the nation's passing leader (Washington's Michael Penix), another Heisman contender (Oregon's Bo Nix), and a host of other dynamic playmakers.
For Utah to keep pace with these elite signal-callers, they need to at least match their own quarterback play from last year, which checked in at 29th nationally.
Two-time defending champion Cam Rising's health is a major storyline, and it appears his rehab is behind schedule. A rusty Rising, or a new full-time starter in Rose Bowl veteran Bryson Barnes, or 10.4 100-meter dash speedster Nate Johnson, calls the quarterback spot into question, at least as an uncertainty here in late August.
Defensive Yards/Carry Allowed (58th in 2022)
Last year's defense allowed 4.0 yards per carry, which may not seem high, but is a relatively poor output in Salt Lake City. That 58th national rank is Utah's worst rushing defense in the past decade. I am calling for a big stat gain here as 11 of their top 15 defenders return, and their defensive front seven now features two former Pac-12 freshman defensive player of the year winners in linebacker Lander Barton and defensive lineman Junior Tafuna.
Simote Pepa is a 330-pound mountain who emerged last season as yet another breakout youngster and will again set the anchor in the trenches. Look for Utah to turn around their decade low into a strength this season.
Defensive Yards/Pass (89th in 2022), Defensive QB Rating (85th), and Defensive Explosive Passing (97th)
I grouped together these three key pass defense categories to show another rare weakness that needs improvement in 2023 for Utah to complete the three-peat. Even adjusting for opponent — the Pac-12 was home to some of the best passing attacks in America — Utah still placed just 43rd of 69 Power Five pass defenses last year.
Utah's defense operates in cycles based on the roster timing and levels of experience. They are always graded in the top five of my player development metric, and we got to see that in real-time last season as a younger defense grew up week-to-week.
In the first seven games, Utah ranked just 45th of 69 Power Five teams in my overall Defense Grader. But over the final seven games, they climbed up to 25th and now ride that momentum in 2023.
While "Mr. Pick Six" Clark Phillips departs, Cole Bishop landed on my All-Pac-12 first team, and Utah's secondary is projected as the top unit in the Pac-12. I trust coordinator Morgan Scalley with all of this star power — and now veteran experience — as a key reason why Utah will return to the title game in Las Vegas this December.
2023 Preview Magazine Superlatives
- TE Brant Kuithe: First team, All-Pac 12
- OL Sataoa Laumea: First team, All-Pac 12
- RB Ja'Quinden Jackson: Second team, All-Pac 12
- OL Keaton Bills: Second team, All-Pac 12
- DL Junior Tafuna: First team, All-Pac 12
- LB Karene Reid: First team, All-Pac 12
- DB Cole Bishop: First team, All-Pac 12
- DL Van Fillinger: Second team, All-Pac 12
- LB Lander Barton: Second team, All-Pac 12
- DL Junior Tafuna: Second team, All-America
- DB Cole Bishop: Second team, All-America
- TE Brant Kuithe: Second team, All-America
- DL Sataoa Laumea: Fourth team, All-America
- WR Mycah Pittman (Florida State): Pac-12 All-Transfer Team
- LB Levani Damuni (Stanford): Pac-12 All-Transfer Team
- DB Miles Battle (Ole Miss): Pac-12 All-Transfer Team
- QB – 4th in Pac-12; 14th nationally
- RB – 3rd in Pac-12; 12th nationally
- OL – 2nd in Pac-12; 10th nationally
- DL – 1st in Pac-12; 7th nationally
- LB – 1st in Pac-12; 7th nationally
- DB – 1st in Pac-12; 12th nationally
- National Preseason Rank: 8th
- Pac-12 Rank: 1st
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Brett Ciancia
