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LOGAN — Utah State head coach Ryan Odom coached the Aggies past New Mexico for a conference win last month, and moments later he emceed the celebration party at the Spectrum.
Standing beneath a capacity student section after a big win on Feb. 1, Odom took the arena microphone and thanked the crowd for aiding the winning efforts before asking for a favor.
"One thing we do want to mention to you," he said. "Senior night, it's right at the beginning of spring break. We've got Boise State coming in here for that last one. We've got to honor those seniors. We hope that you'll stay around to support them for that."
A month later, Odom's on-a-whim announcement seems rather fortuitous. Not only is Saturday evening's conference rivalry game a sendoff to a handful of Aggies seniors, but it's a game that could very well decide Utah State's postseason fate.
With Utah State squarely on the bubble in the NCAA Tournament at-large conversation, hosting the Broncos in the regular season finale is an ideal opportunity to snag a signature win and put a bow on its resume before it enters the Mountain West Tournament next week.
And there will be plenty on hand to watch.
Although a wide swath of vacation-bound students are expected to heed Odom's wishes and stick around for the game, the athletic department isn't taking any chances. A couple hundred seats within the student section were released to the public throughout the week, all of which were snatched up within hours.
By every indication, the sold-out crowd will be eager to see if Odom's squad can increase its tournament chances on Saturday night. Here's a breakdown of Utah State's chances and where it currently stands in the bubble race as it enters the final game of the regular season.
Why the Aggies are in
Numbers don't lie, right? That is what every Aggies fan should be counting on right now, because it's the best thing going for Utah State's dancing dreams.
The NET rankings, which is the NCAA's evaluation tool to determine the seeding for the tournament, has the Aggies ranked No. 22 on Friday, which is higher than several teams comfortably in the field, such as Duke, Texas A&M and Virginia, and well above every other team on the bubble line.
If the Aggies stay in the 20's, there's a good chance they're in the tournament regardless of next week's results — the highest ranked NET to ever miss the Big Dance was NC State, who finished 33rd in 2019. In other metrics considered by the selection committee, Utah State is ranked 26th in KenPom, 21st in KPI and 46th in Sagarin. In these, the Aggies are in good standing, too.
In games against top 100 KenPom teams, the Aggies have a 10-5 record. The quadrant win system, which rank a win's quality based on where opponents rank in the NET, the Aggies are 8-5 in the first two quadrants (Quad 1, 0-4; Quad 2, 8-1) and 15-2 in the bottom quadrants (Quad 3, 13-0; Quad 4, 2-2).
In nonconference play, Utah State beat three regular season conference champions in Utah Valley (WAC) Bradley (Missouri Valley) and Oral Roberts (Summit League). In conference play, the Aggies have beaten two fellow bubble teams, Nevada and New Mexico, and have two Quad 2 road wins over Colorado State and UNLV.
Those seven wins have come with an average point margin of 14.7.
By comparison, in the 2019 season (the last non-shortened season Utah State earned an at-large bid), the Aggies went 5-5 in the first two quadrants, finished 29th in the NET, and earned an eighth seed in the tournament.
Utah State's adjusted offensive efficiency of 118.3 (per KenPom) is 13th nationally, suggesting its offense is tournament worthy.
Why the Aggies are out
Logical fallacies regarding the NET system exist on an annual basis; and this year, the issue revolves around the Aggies. Utah State is currently 0-4 in Quad 1 games yet is 22nd in the NET. The next team without a Quad 1 win is Liberty at No. 40.
That renders the question: What's the better measurement of success? The NET rankings themselves or the quadrant wins, which the NET rankings are predicated on? Aggies fans would argue the former, suggesting arbitrary quadrants don't do a full body of work justice like the NET does. Bracketologists beg to differ.
As of March 2, both ESPN's Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports Jerry Palm have the Aggies out of the field in their mock brackets.
Quad 1 opportunities are more readily available on the road — the opponent has to be inside the top 75 teams in the NET. At home, it's more difficult; the opponent has to be inside the top 30.
Three double-digit road losses at Boise State, Nevada and San Diego State — along with a heart-breaking home loss to the Aztecs — leave the Aggies empty-handed in Quad 1 games. A home win over Nevada briefly stood as a Quad 1 win for the Aggies, but the Wolf Pack fell out of the top 30 after losing to Wyoming on Monday.
There's an additional issue the committee can't overlook: Utah State has two dreadful losses to Quad 4 opponents Weber State and SMU. The Mustangs, No. 206 in the NET, is a neutral site loss, which means they need to get above 200 in the NET to improve it to a Quad 3 loss.
Additionally, Utah State's adjusted defensive efficiency of 100.9 (per KenPom) is 81st nationally, a respectable number yet below at-large level marks.
What needs to happen
Simply put, Saturday's game against Boise State could be the golden ticket.
Boise State, currently 27th in the NET, is an expected tournament team that will likely finish the year below 30. Beating them will appease the committee's desire for a Quad 1 win and keep the Aggies highly rated in the computer rankings — and presumably put them on the right side of the bubble.
Then, Utah State can't give the selection committee a reason to knock them out.
Utah State will likely face San Jose State in the 4 vs. 5 game in the Mountain West Tournament quarterfinals on Thursday. If the Spartans send the Aggies packing, while other bubble teams progress in their respective conference tournaments, that could bode poorly on Selection Sunday. If the Aggies beat the Broncos and make the semifinals of the tournament — a likely matchup with San Diego State — should be enough.
If Utah State loses to Boise State, it likely needs to knock off the top-seeded Aztecs in the semifinals round to nab a Quad 1. At that point, though, the Aggies might as well go win the whole tournament to lock up an automatic bid.
