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The Hotline's latest projections include one significant change, with Arizona State moving into the pool of bowl-eligible teams.
Yes, the Sun Devils need three wins in their last four to qualify, and they host UCLA this week.
Lose to the Bruins, and the Devils would have to sweep Washington State, Oregon State and Arizona — a steep challenge, for sure.
But the Hotline isn't picking ASU to lose to the Bruins.
We envision a November upset in the desert, another November upset in the desert.
Remember 2019? Oregon ventured into Sun Devil Stadium with one loss, a No. 6 ranking, an elite quarterback (Justin Herbert), designs on the playoff — and lost.
Here come the one-loss, 10th-ranked Bruins with quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson playing at a high level. And we see a similar outcome.
Granted, these Sun Devils aren't as good as the 2019 version, but UCLA isn't quite as complete as that Oregon team.
The Ducks were favored by 14 points three years ago.
The Bruins are favored by 10.5 this week.
Also, we have noticed a distinct uptick in efficiency with Trenton Bourguet at quarterback. Assuming he starts again, the Sun Devils should score frequently on a mediocre UCLA defense.
And if our prediction proves accurate, the postseason dynamics change.
With a victory Saturday night, the Sun Devils would need two wins from a three-game collection that features Oregon State (daunting), Washington State (no offense) and Arizona (no defense).
In that situation, we like ASU's chances.
To the projections …
Rose Bowl
Team: Oregon (7-1/5-0)Home games remaining (two): Washington, UtahRoad games remaining (two): Colorado, Oregon StateComment: No team has run the table in conference play since Oregon in 2010. These Ducks will be solid-to-heavy favorites in every game, at least until the conference championship.
Cotton Bowl
Team: USC (7-1/5-1)Home (three): Cal, Colorado, Notre DameRoad (one): UCLAComment: It's a two-game season for a shot at the title. Why two? Well, the Trojans must beat UCLA — we're counting Cal and Colorado as victories — and they probably need Utah to lose again.
Alamo Bowl
Team: Utah (6-2/4-1)Home (two): Arizona, StanfordRoad (two): Oregon, ColoradoComment: Our latest projections call for Utah to lose once (at Oregon) and for UCLA to lose twice (ASU and USC), which opens a path for the Utes into the Alamo. If the teams have the same number of losses, the Bruins might be invited because of their head-to-head win.
Holiday Bowl
Team: UCLA (7-1/4-1)Home (two): Arizona, USCRoad (two): Arizona State, CalComment: News from the future: Immediately after announcing UCLA's participation, bowl officials reveal they have renamed the game the Awkward Dance Bowl.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Washington (6-2/3-2)Home (two): Oregon State, ColoradoRoad (two): Oregon, WSUComment: Huge game Friday night on Montlake. Win, and the Huskies will effectively clinch an eight-win season (minimum) and put themselves in play for the Holiday. Lose, and the LA Bowl enters the discussion.
Sun Bowl
Team: Oregon State (6-2/3-2)Home (two): Cal, OregonRoad (two): Washington, ASUComment: A reminder on the selection process: The Alamo, Holiday and Las Vegas bowls have the option to skip one team for another as long as they aren't separated by more than one game in the conference standings. The Sun and LA bowls must make their selections based on order-of-finish.
LA Bowl
Team: Washington State (4-4/1-4)Home (two): ASU, WashingtonRoad (two): Stanford, ArizonaComment: The Hotline supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations of the Cougars' stretch run and spit out two more victories — just enough to get them eligible — a whopping 5,001 times.
ESPN bowl
Team: Arizona State (3-5/2-3)Home (two): UCLA, Oregon StateRoad (two): WSU, ArizonaComment: This bowl would be the Gasparilla, Armed Forces or First Responders. But it could be any game, anywhere — even the North Korea Bowl — and the Sun Devils would jump at the chance.
Non-qualifier
Team: Arizona (3-5/1-4)Home (two): Washington State, ASURoad (two): Utah, UCLAComment: The Hotline is close to declaring this a successful season for the Wildcats given the state of the program in 2020-21. They probably need one more victory, and they definitely need to be competitive in the Territorial Cup.
Non-qualifier
Team: Cal (3-5/1-4)Home (two): Stanford, UCLARoad (two): USC, Oregon StateComment: Looking ahead to Nov. 19, we must admit: This stacks up as the least appealing Big Game in a long, long time. Which is saying something.
Non-qualifier
Team: Colorado (1-7/1-4)Home (two): Oregon, UtahRoad (two): USC, WashingtonComment: Only two of the 65 teams in the Power Five conferences were eliminated from the postseason before Nov. 1: The Buffaloes and Northwestern.
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford (3-5/1-5)Home (two): WSU, Brigham YoungRoad (two): Utah, CalComment: We give Stanford no chance to win in Salt Lake City, meaning it must sweep the other three opponents to become eligible — there's no margin for error. And that's not good for a team with no offense.
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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
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