Estimated read time: 5-6 minutes
This archived news story is available only for your personal, non-commercial use. Information in the story may be outdated or superseded by additional information. Reading or replaying the story in its archived form does not constitute a republication of the story.
MINNEAPOLIS — So, that was fun.
The Jazz got off to a dream start to the season with an emphatic opening night win over the Denver Nuggets. That led to some questions: Is the tank suddenly off? How good are the Jazz really? Is it actually a bad thing to win this season?
We probably won't be doing one of these after every game — or maybe we will; time will tell — but after a win like Wednesday's, we couldn't ignore the excitement from the fans.
So to the comments …
"Noooooo! We want (Victor) Wembanyama. Play hard next year." — GsbrryGngstr
Here's the thing with teams who are supposedly tanking for a high pick: The players on the team don't care about where the organization lands in the draft.
This season's Jazz are a team full of guys who have pretty large chips on their shoulders. Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt have been traded around the league, veterans Mike Conley and Rudy Gay were part of a fire sale and no one came calling, Collin Sexton has heard he's too small, the list goes on and on.
These guys are worried about staying in the league, not if the Jazz are going be good in a few years. And that tends to lead to more energized performances like the one we saw on Wednesday.
The Jazz had 16 more second-chance points than Denver, with Vanderbilt setting the tone with five offensive rebounds in just 18 minutes of play. The team pushed the pace, moved the ball and fed off an electric home crowd to have a stunning victory.
And another thing: This team likes each other — something last year's Jazz team might not have been able to truthfully say.
"There's a real camaraderie with this group, even in an early stage," coach Will Hardy said. "I think all of our guys understand that none of them can do it on their own."
The type of effort fans saw on Wednesday could very well be a regular occurrence throughout the season. That doesn't mean it will always lead to wins. Other teams will hit more than five 3-pointers, as the Nuggets did, and the Jazz won't shoot over 40% from three as a team this season. And as fun as Wednesday was, the Jazz still don't have the talent of the top tier teams. That still matters.
As good as they looked against Denver, the Jazz still aren't set up to be a championship team. Losses will still come — even if the players try their darnedest to avoid them.
"They will have just as much chance of getting Wemby with a winning record as they would if they tanked the entire season (which is 14% or less)." — water rockets
In light of the Jazz maybe possibly being better than advertised, let's review how the lottery works.
In their fight against tanking, the NBA has flattened the lottery odds in recent years to make it less of a lock that the worst team will get the No. 1 pick.
The teams that finish in the bottom three of the standings now all have the same 14% chance of getting the top selection, with the odds slowly reducing throughout the standings order.
Here were last season's odds heading into the lottery:
- Houston, 20-62, 14%
- Orlando, 22-60, 14%
- Detroit, 23-59, 14%
- Oklahoma City, 24-58, 12.5%
- Indiana, 25-57, 10.5%
- Portland, 27-55, 9%
- Sacramento, 30-52, 7.5%
- Los Angeles Lakers, 33-49, 6%
- San Antonio, 34-48, 4.5%
- Washington, 35-47, 3%
- New York, 37-45, 2%
- LA Clippers (to OKC), 42-40, 1.5%
- Charlotte, 43-39, 1%
- Cleveland, 44-38, 0.5%
Last May, just four wins was the difference between having a 14% chance at the top pick and a 9% chance. Were those wins worth that?
Regardless, the Jazz will likely have at least decent odds at a high pick, even if they pick up some more unexpected wins along the way.
"The best part about tonight. We didn't blow a fourth quarter lead! How about that?!" — utahsmitty
OK, this is obviously tongue in cheek, but the end was probably the most impressive part of Utah's victory. I don't think it's unfair to say Denver sleep-walked through the first half of the game; combine that with Utah's energetic start and some hot shooting and suddenly it was a 20-point game.
Still, it always felt like the Nuggets were going to come back and win. They had the better players, and the shooting usually evens out.
Denver did make a push — cutting the lead to 7 with 5:35 left to go — but how the Jazz closed was, like most of the rest of the game, pretty surprising.
Utah finished the game on an 18-4 run to put the Nuggets away — a far cry from last year's squad that saw three double-digit fourth quarter leads evaporate in the closing weeks of the season.
The Jazz got some timely shooting, and then Collin Sexton brought them home. And as Mike Conley tells it, that was the plan.
Before Sexton subbed in with five minutes remaining, Conley turned to him and told him to "take over."
He took that to heart. The Jazz put the ball in his hands late, and he took advantage of mismatches by getting down hill to get looks. He scored a quick 6 points in the final few minutes to close the door on the game.
"He's obviously one of the more athletic guards when he's going downhill and he made all the right reads tonight," Conley said.
