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SALT LAKE CITY — Utah opened Pac-12 play with a convincing, dominant victory over former South Division rival Arizona State. The Utes jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead, outgained Arizona State by 200 yards in the first half, and eventually extended the final score to a three-touchdown margin at 34-13.
The Utah offense had balanced production — 260 yards passing, 205 yards rushing — but the bigger storyline was the dominance by Morgan Scalley's defense.
Utah finished with five sacks and held Arizona State to its lowest rushing total in school history: 6 yards. The secondary picked off Emory Jones twice, including a jumped route by All-America candidate Clark Phillips III. After the sloppy opener against Florida, in which the defense missed 27 tackles, there has been clear improvement and the starting unit has allowed just one touchdown in the last three games.
The strength of schedule is about to heat up in October, but credit Utah for taking care of business against the last three overmatched opponents: an FCS team, a non-AQ team, and a Power Five team without a head coach.
On Saturday in Rice-Eccles Stadium, Utah hosts Oregon State, who went punch for punch with No. 7 USC last week. While they lost the game 17-14, they held a late lead and would have won if not for a (-4) turnover margin.
Not only does this matchup impact Utah's conference title race — and eventually the Playoff race — it also stages another revenge game. Last year in Corvallis, Oregon State defeated Utah 42-34 and rushed for 260 yards (6.3 per carry). This dynamic Oregon State rushing attack led Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham to call them "the best offense in the Pac-12."
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-Year Average 2019-21: Utah 68.9 (7th) | Oregon State 45.6 (41st of 66 Power Five)2021 Season: Utah 69.5 (7th) | Oregon State 50.7 (37th of 66 Power Five)2022 Season: Utah 70.3 (14th) | Oregon State 54.1 (37th of 66 Power Five)
Utah's decisive 34-13 (+200 yardage) win over Arizona State moved them up eight spots to No. 14 in the 2022 Game Grader. Continuing to stack double-digit wins over conference opponents will keep Utah rising in the polls and in the formula.
Oregon State beat Fresno State by 3 points, lost to USC by 3 points, and won decisive games against Boise State and Montana State (FCS). Their Game Grader score is near the Power Five average, but on Saturday they proved they can contend with the conference's best teams.
Oregon State with the ball
Last season, Oregon State finished No. 2 nationally in my Run Push metric (trailing only Utah) and were one of just three teams to post consecutive Top 20 yards per carry rushing seasons. Their run game is slightly below that standard so far in 2022 after they had to replace first team All-Pac 12 lineman Nathan Eldridge and Pac-12 rushing champ BJ Baylor.
They are currently 38th in yards per carry and the passing attack is below average. Chance Nolan has thrown for seven touchdowns and six picks (four last week) but does have a high yards per attempt average — this is representative of their success hitting on play-action passes downfield.
In short-yardage situations, they like to use former quarterback (current linebacker) Jack Colletto as a physical "wildcat" runner. Utah is 98th nationally in defensive red zone touchdown percentage — a clear advantage for Oregon State should they get near the goal line.
The key to stopping Oregon State is containing their rushing attack, and we'll learn if Utah has made strides since its opening loss. Head coach Jonathan Smith is creative with his ground game and gets several players involved with jet sweeps, end arounds, reverses, etc.
Utah with the ball
Utah is the only offense in the Pac-12 to place in the league's top four in all key categories: scoring offense (3rd), yards per carry (4th), QB rating (1st), and yards/pass (4th).
Oregon State's defense has struggled to defend the run but is in the league's top three in the pass defense metrics. New defensive coordinator Trent Bray took over last November and there was a marked improvement statistically after the switch. Bray runs a variety of base formations and loves to bring extra pressure and blitzes more than most teams.
Utah received awful news Sunday morning as star tight end Brant Kuithe was confirmed to have a season-ending injury. Kuithe's role was much more than the typical tight end — he lined up out wide, in the slot, and was even involved in the run game where he rushed for several touchdowns over the years. I hope for a full recovery for him.
Look for this injury to force Utah to rely more on the traditional run game and to target Dalton Kincaid even more. They will need the wide receivers to continue to progress. Devaughn Vele looks like an emerging star No. 1 WR, and Money Parks has flashed potential.
Game prediction
Given Oregon State's statistical weakness defending the run, look for Utah to pound the ball and slow the pace of the game as they begin rebuilding the offense without do-it-all Kuithe.
Look for both rushing offenses to have some success, but Utah's decisive advantage at quarterback makes all the difference. Cam Rising currently leads the league in QB Rating and has more big-game experience and success than his counterpart.
Utah 28 | Oregon State 17
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Brett Ciancia
