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LAS VEGAS — The path to the NCAA Tournament for Utah State isn't impossible, but it surely isn't plausible.
It'd require four wins in four days at the Mountain West Tournament in the Thomas and Mack Center.
The path begins Wednesday, when the seventh-seeded Aggies facing the 10th-seeded Air Force. If they win that, it'd require defeating Mountain West Player of the Year David Roddy and nationally-ranked Colorado State. In the semifinals, Utah State would likely face San Diego State, which is second nationally in defensive efficiency — and that's just to get to the final, which they'd also have to win to earn an invitation to the dance.
Playing on a neutral court, that'd likely require three straight wins against Quad 1 opponents, or opponents ranked in the Top 50 of the NCAA Net rankings. This season, the Aggies are 2-10 in Quad 1 games.
Oversimplifying the circumstances surrounding those games, the 12-game sample size says they have a 16% chance of winning Quad 1 games. Using this logic, in three Quad 1 games in row, against perhaps Colorado State, San Diego State and Boise State, Utah State would have a .065% of winning all three.
Not ideal.
No wonder the "one game at a time" cliche has been emphasized by head coach Ryan Odom in back-to-back press conferences.
And there's no doubt the pressure is on.
"Some are playing to stay in the tournament for an at-large bid, some are playing to try and have a chance like us to get in and earn our way in," Odom said. "So you've got a lot of different things at stake."
Despite the looming odds, it's not unreasonable to consider a path to the championship.
For one, Utah State has made it to the conference championship game each of the past three years — and won two of them. Seniors Justin Bean and Brock Miller were on each of those teams and know how to win in Vegas.
Additionally, the seventh-seed mark in front of Utah State's name on the CBS Sports Network ticker Wednesday afternoon may not be indicative of the threat the Aggies pose to the conference.
This is a Utah State team with two Quad 1 wins and three Quad 2 wins. They beat San Diego State at home by 18 points and edged out Oklahoma in the Myrtle Beach Invitational Tournament earlier this season.
Led by All Mountain West second team senior Justin Bean and All Mountain West third team senior Brandon Horvath, Utah State has been competitive against every team in the conference.
Utah State fell to league-leading Boise State on a dagger 3-pointer from Marcus Shaver Jr. They lost to Wyoming twice on go-ahead buckets from Graham Ike, one of which came in overtime. The Aggies also had Colorado State within one possession during the final two minutes in both games they played.
The KenPom rankings recognize Utah State's poor luck at the end of games — it has the Aggies 355 out of 357 teams in the luck column.
More than bad luck is to blame for close losses that contribute to Utah State's 8-10 conference record, though; it hasn't been the easiest season for the team. Utah State brought in a new coaching staff this season and had to replace three starters from last year, including NBA draft pick Neemias Queta.
Injuries and sickness have also hampered Utah State this season. During one loss, both Horvath and Bean played with the flu; Miller missed half the season with a back injury; COVID-19 sidelined senior starter Rj Etyle-Rock for two games; and a concussion sidelined Rylan Jones for several weeks. That isn't the extent of it.
"We're there until the last two minutes and then, you know, stuff just kind of goes wrong for us," Horvath said. "I mean, I obviously don't have an answer for it but I feel like we have a new team, a new coach this year. We're just trying to figure it out on the fly and you're going to learn from experience in the games."
Obviously, these excuses don't deliver the full story.
End-of-game execution in crucial moments has been poor for the Aggies. Utah State has failed to develop a go-to scorer in critical situations and there have been nights where the offensive intensity has lacked.
Whatever the synopsis is for the arguably underwhelming season, the results have yet to best the Aggies as they approach the postseason.
"I think what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. And, you know, we've taken some hard losses. I think we've really, really learned from it; we really know what to do now," Horvath said. "Everyone believes that we can win. And we've never lost that belief. So until that final buzzer sounds we're always gonna believe that we can.
"And I think that's just a really, really important part of this team," Horvath added. "Because on most teams, you lose five, six games at the buzzer like that, you're gonna waver and you're gonna split. We've just come closer together."
To make a run in the conference tournament will require some of the most efficient games of the season all strung together. Much of that will rely on the 3-point shots. In their five wins against Quad 1 or 2 opponents, the Aggies have shot 39.6% from 3-point range. During conference play, they shot 30.7%.
Utah State has a rhythm-based offense — ball movement and pace to directly translate into shooting percentage and offensive efficiency. They're second nationally in assist-to-made basket ratio at 65.1%, per KenPom. In their rhythm, they're unstoppable; out of it, they struggle to make baskets.
Horvath thinks the key to maintaining the rhythm starts on the defensive end of the court.
"When we're really engaged on defense and we're getting stops, and we're pushing the ball, I think transition, like the San Diego State game, I think we did a really good job of pushing the ball against them because they're a really good defensive team," Horvath said. "So I think we've just got to hang our hat on the defensive. And then if we're playing that really well, we just get out and push the ball because we've got to fight."
No question it'll be a fight in Vegas. Odom said "every team is going to give their best effort." To win four in a row will require shooting at a high clip and defending similarly.
Plus some lighting in a bottle.
"It's like a mentality, like leave it all out there," Horvath said. "Like you don't have many (games) left — can't be wasting time. So it's good. I'd like it."