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The Pac-12 women's tournament is more important for Oregon and Arizona than for Stanford, but don't mistake that for a lack of Cardinal urgency.
In the selection committee's final projections of the NCAA Tournament's top 16 seeds, which were revealed Monday, the defending national champion Cardinal was No. 2 behind South Carolina. So even a worse-case loss in the Pac-12 quarterfinals Thursday in Las Vegas almost certainly would not prevent the Cardinal from being a No. 1 seed.
But NCAA first-round games aren't played until March 18-19, so there's no real rest advantage to an early Pac-12 tournament exit, and Stanford has plenty to work on despite an undefeated conference season (16-0).
"We can play a lot better," Cardinal coach Tara VanDerveer said after a narrow 63-56 escape over last-place Washington on Saturday, when Stanford shot 20.8 percent from 3-point range.
"I recruited every one of them for offense. That's something we have to get going."
She has a point. Stanford has scored in the 60s in four of its last five games, well off its season average of 74.5 points per game. That trend might not get the Cardinal through to a 15th Pac-12 tournament title, let alone back to the NCAA mountaintop as the Pac-12's first repeat national champion since USC in 1983-84.
"There are no gimmes in this league," VanDerveer said. "You've got to come out every night and compete and make plays."
That's especially important for Oregon, which is no longer among the top 16 NCAA seeds but hopes to return to that level in order to host a sub-regional. Arizona remains a national seed at No. 11, down five spots from the Feb. 10 edition, but the Wildcats can use at least a quarterfinal win to avert dropping further on selection day.
As for the first round of the Pac-12 tournament, all four games appear up for grabs and only a fool would even attempt to predict them — or the rest of the tournament, for that matter.
But why be silent, to paraphrase Mark Twain, when the Hotline can remove all doubt about being a fool.
For context, here are the Hotline power ratings for this week, which differ somewhat from the tournament seeds: No. 1 Stanford, No. 2 Oregon, No. 3 Arizona, No. 4 Washington State, No. 5 Colorado, No. 6 Utah, No. 7 UCLA (up two places from last week), No. 8 USC (up two), No. 9 Arizona State (down one), No. 10 Oregon State (down three), No. 11 Washington (up one) and No. 12 Cal (down one).
Here, with no great conviction, is how we see the Pac-12 tournament unfolding at the Mandalay Bay Events Center.
(All times Pacific; all games on the Pac-12 Networks except for the championship.)
Opening round (Wednesday)
No. 5 Colorado vs. No. 12 Washington (12 p.m.)
The Huskies, winners of two of their last three games, are playing their best basketball when it comes to finishing games. But NCAA-bound Colorado has won six of its last seven, including a 66-43 victory over Washington on Feb. 6. The Buffs pick up their 21st win of the season, the most since 2013.
No. 8 Oregon State vs. No. 9 Arizona State (2:30 p.m.)
Both teams finished the regular season in the wrong direction: Oregon State went 2-7 in February while ASU lost its last six. The Sun Devils can back up a 10-point head-to-head win over the Beavers in early February if they shoot a decent percentage, but that's a big if. Oregon State needs to exploit its size advantage. We'll take ASU in a coin flip.
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 USC (6 p.m.)
Barring some upsets, this will be the only rivalry meeting in the tournament. UCLA won twice over a three-day stretch in January, but USC is more dangerous now — especially if leading scorer Jordyn Jenkins returns from injury. Still, we like the Bruins to rise to the occasion, as they have all season.
No. 6 Utah vs. No. 11 California (8:30 p.m.)
The Utes needed overtime to beat Cal 80-75 on Feb. 13 and need a better defensive showing to avoid another shootout. Utah's league-leading offense is more reliable, and Cal is on a four-game losing streak. Tough to pick an upset here.
Quarterfinals (Thursday)
No. 5 Colorado vs. No. 4 Arizona (12 p.m.)
Forward Cate Reese (shoulder) is not expected to play in Las Vegas unless Arizona reaches the championship game, making it significantly easier for the Buffaloes to figure out how to avenge a 75-56 loss on Jan. 23. It feels like an early exit looms for the Wildcats, who would have time to regroup for Reese's return and the home-court advantage in the NCAAs.
No. 9 Arizona State vs. No. 1 Stanford (2:30 p.m.)
Even given three consecutive single-digit wins, there is no reason to think Stanford will trip up against ASU, a team it dominated 78-50 on Jan. 28. It would be a win for the Sun Devils simply to keep the game close into the fourth quarter.
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 2 Oregon (6 p.m.)
Oregon put the hammer down in a make-up game two weeks ago, leading by 20 points at halftime en route to a 67-53 win. The Bruins can be counted on to make it closer in a rematch. But coming off a tough opener against USC, they will fall short of defensively slowing the Ducks.
No. 6 Utah vs. No. 3 Washington State (8:30 p.m.)
The Cougars lost 72-66 at Utah on Feb. 6 in a game that wasn't that close for three quarters. Now they're 5-1 in the last six games and back into the NCAA Tournament picture. The Utes are more than capable of winning, but we like Washington State to remain hot and motivated to stay off the NCAA bubble.
Semifinals (Friday)
No. 5 Colorado vs. No. 1 Stanford (6 p.m.)
In the last three seasons, Colorado has a win over Stanford and four single-digit losses, so it's safe to assume the Buffs will not be intimidated — not even in their first Pac-12 tournament semifinal since 2013. This might not be pretty for the Cardinal, but it's the kind of game Stanford wins with depth and experience.
No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Washington State (8:30 p.m.)
Washington State obviously relishes a do-over from its 83-30 mid-week disaster in Eugene on Feb. 9. But getting your wish and making something out of it are different things. The Ducks are too big and potent offensively to experience a drop of that magnitude.
Championship (Sunday)
No. 1 Stanford vs. No. 2 Oregon (3 p.m., ESPN2)
In the end, we will see a third Stanford-Oregon meeting this season (the Cardinal won both) and the same tournament finalists from 2018-20 (the Ducks won two of three). Stanford will be up to 33 consecutive wins over Pac-12 opponents by Sunday and on a 19-game overall winning streak. Both will come to an end as the Ducks need a dramatic statement more than Stanford in order to host an NCAA sub-regional.
Jon Wilner's Pac-12 Hotline is brought to KSL.com through a partnership with the Bay Area News Group.
Jeff Metcalfe is a sports writer covering Arizona State University sports and the Olympics for The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com sports, and is a correspondent for the Pac-12 Hotline. You can follow him on Twitter @jeffmetcalfe.
Pac-12 Hotline: Subscribe to the Pac-12 Hotline Newsletter. Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
