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Only one thing is certain entering the final week of the Pac-12 women's basketball regular season: Stanford is the champion and will be the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament next week in Las Vegas.
Every other seed still is up for grabs.
Seeds are determined by conference win-loss percentage and tiebreakers. Staying away from the Cardinal is the likeliest path to a long tournament run, although the No. 5-12 seeds are close enough that almost any outcome is possible on Day One.
— A lot could change this week, but these would be tournament pairings in Las Vegas based on current standings:
Utah/Washington, winner vs. Arizona; UCLA/Arizona State, winner vs. Stanford; Oregon State/USC, winner vs. Oregon; Colorado/California, winner vs. Washington State.
— Meanwhile, the latest ESPN projections for the NCAA Tournament include six Pac-12 teams:
Stanford (No. 1 seed), Arizona (2), Oregon (5, not hosting a sub-regional), Utah (9), Washington State (10) and Colorado (10), with Oregon State on the bubble.
Here are the Hotline's 10th women's basketball power ratings …
NET rankings through Monday. (The NCAA Evaluation Tool rankings are used by the selection committee to determine the seeds and at-large bids.)
1. Stanford (23-3/14-0)
Last week: 1
Results: beat Oregon State 87-63 and Oregon 66-62
Next up: vs. Washington State (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 3 (no change from last week)
Comment: Of Stanford's 25 Pac-12 regular-season titles, 24 are credited to Tara VanDerveer and the exception was a 1995-96 team with her fingerprints when she was coaching the U.S. national team. The Cardinal has won two straight titles after an uncharacteristic six-year gap (2015-20) below the top.
2. Oregon (18-9/10-5)
Last week: 3
Results: beat UCLA 67-53 and Cal 52-47, lost to Stanford 66-62
Next up: at Colorado (Wednesday)
NET ranking: No. 12 (change: -1)
Comment: The Ducks navigated nine games in 20 days with a 5-4 record that is more impressive than it suggests. There still is no clear-cut delineation between Oregon and Arizona, but the Ducks get the nod for No. 2 this week for playing even into the final minute with Stanford on Sunday.
3. Arizona (19-5/9-5)
Last week: 2
Results: beat Washington 51-42, lost to WSU 72-67
Next up: vs. UCLA (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 13 (change: -1)
Comment: Similar to Oregon's recent mixed results, Arizona is 4-3 over its last seven games and now will be without its best player, forward Cate Reese (dislocated shoulder), for an unspecific length. Sam Thomas, Lauren Ware, Koi Love and Gisela Sanchez will be asked to do more in Reese's absence, which might extend until the NCAA Tournament.
4. Washington State (18-8/10-5)
Last week: 7
Results: beat Arizona State 65-58 and Arizona 72-67
Next up: at Stanford (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 62 (change: +5)
Comment: No sooner had we dropped the Cougars to No. 7 in our ratings than they beat the Arizona schools, solidifying their chances of a Pac-12 Tournament first-day bye and a second straight NCAA Tournament appearance. Now they're on a four-game roll and have the Pac-12 Player of the Week (Johanna Teder) going into the ultimate test at Stanford.
5. Colorado (18-7/7-7)
Last week: 6
Results: beat UCLA 67-54 and USC 67-54
Next up: vs. Oregon (Wednesday)
NET ranking: No. 31 (change: +3)
Comment: Going 4-1 in their last five games, the Buffaloes seem to have stabilized at just the right time when it comes to making the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013. "It's all about how your veterans handle those ups and downs, and I think our team was very self reflective about what can I do better," coach JR Payne said.
6. Utah (16-9/7-6)
Last week: 4
Results: lost to USC 83-62, beat UCLA 75-70
Next up: vs. Oregon State (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 25 (change: -2)
Comment: The Utes took a significant hit in a 21-point loss to USC just nine days after beating the Trojans by 22. But they regrouped against UCLA, winning thanks to a 25-9 third quarter. They are 6-2 in the last eight games.
7. Oregon State (13-10/6-7)
Last week: 8
Results: lost to Stanford 87-63, beat Cal 68-59
Next up: at Utah (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 50 (change: -1)
Comment: After going 1-4 in five consecutive games against AP top-25 opponents — that's the longest such streak in Pac-12 history during a single season — the Beavers made the most of some schedule relief by beating Cal on a 40-10 edge in paint points.
8. Arizona State (12-11/4-7)
Last week: 5
Results: lost to Cal by forfeit, lost to WSU 65-58 and Washington 74-69
Next up: vs. USC (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 41 (change: -2)
Comment: ASU still is in NCAA Tournament contention based on its NET ranking despite a tumultuous 0-3 week that ended with just eight available players. The health issue is key for the Sun Devils to have a chance of winning at home this week and at least once in the Pac-12 Tournament.
9. UCLA (11-11/6-8)
Last week: 9
Results: lost to Oregon 67-53, Colorado 67-54 and Utah 75-70
Next up: at Arizona (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 58 (change: -5)
Comment: With all its injuries, UCLA is not built for a three-game week, so the 0-3 result is not a complete surprise. The Bruins had Charisma Osborne for the first two games but not against Utah, when Izzy Anstey and Dominique Onu also were not available for parts of the game.
10. USC (11-14/4-11)
Last week: 10
Results: beat Utah 82-62, lost to Colorado 67-54
Next up: at Arizona State (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 78 (change: +4)
Comment: Rayah Marshall is Pac-12 Freshman of the Week for the second time after an 18-point, 10-rebound double-double in the Trojans' upset of Utah. The 6-foot-4 forward followed that up with 13 points and 11 rebounds against Colorado in her first career start. She has a nine-game streak of double-digit scoring.
11. California (11-10/2-8)
Last week: 11
Results: beat ASU by forfeit, beat Cal State-LA 98-53, lost to Oregon 52-47 and OSU 68-59
Next up: vs. Washington (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 91 (change: +6)
Comment: It shouldn't go unrecognized that Division II Cal State-LA agreed at the last minute to play the Bears when ASU canceled. Cal won big as expected and nearly spun the momentum into an upset of Oregon. Freshman Jayda Curry continues to lead the Pac-12 in scoring (18.8 points per game).
12. Washington (6-14/1-11)
Last week: 12
Results: lost to Arizona 51-42, beat Arizona State 74-69
Next up: vs. Arizona (Friday)
NET ranking: 108 (change: +12)
Comment: The Huskies broke through for their first Pac-12 win on Senior Day thanks, in part, to making all 12 free throws in the fourth quarter. Seven of their Pac-12 losses are by single digits, and ASU coach Charli Turner Thorne said she's never been more nervous going into a game because of Washington being better than its record.
Jon Wilner's Pac-12 Hotline is brought to KSL.com through a partnership with the Bay Area News Group.
Jeff Metcalfe is a sports writer covering Arizona State University sports and the Olympics for The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com sports, and is a correspondent for the Pac-12 Hotline. You can follow him on Twitter @jeffmetcalfe.
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