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SALT LAKE CITY — Utah is already the nation's fastest-growing state and a new report published Wednesday finds there are really no signs that'll change anytime soon, even if the rate might slow down slightly quicker than originally projected.
Utah's population is projected to reach close to 5.5 million by 2060, an increase of about 2.2 million people or a 66% increase over the next 40 years, according to Utah Long-Term Planning Projections, a report released Wednesday by the University of Utah's Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute. The institute says the state is on track to reach 4 million residents by 2033 and 5 million by 2051.
It also projects about 1.3 million more jobs over the next four decades, with construction jobs leading the way in new work opportunities.
"These changes will be experienced differently throughout the state, with Salt Lake and Utah counties continuing to be dominant drivers for both the population and the economy," Mallory Bateman, director of demographic research at the Gardner Institute, said in a statement. "Demographic shifts impact our statewide characteristics of age and households throughout these projections."
Inside the projections
The 22-page document is an update to a similar report released in 2017, but using the 2020 census, as well as new modeling and data information over five years to adjust projections. These include major projects that will add or subtract jobs announced since 2017, according to Bateman.
Most of the population growth trends remain the same, although the new report projects 104,825 fewer people living in Utah by 2060 than the report issued in 2017.
Either projection signals a slowdown from the past four decades, when Utah's population tripled. The 1980 census found about 1.06 million people lived in the state in 1980, with nearly 3.3 million two years ago — a population increase of 210% in the past 40 years.
While the rate would drop significantly, the growth in the total number of people in the state would be about the same at about 2.2 million.
Southwest Utah is expected to be the state's fastest-growing region during this time, according to the report. The Southwest Economic Region is expected to add over 330,000 more residents, doubling in the next 40 years.
Most of that growth will be in Washington County, which is projected to add the third-most number of people over the next four decades. If so, the county would have over 460,000 people by 2060. It had about 180,000 residents in 2020.
That said, the report also pinpoints Utah County, which has already emerged as a fast-growing county, to be the fastest-growing county in terms of absolute growth, or total people over the next four decades. Analysts estimate that nearly 674,000 residents will end up in Utah County, besting Salt Lake County by about 190,000 people over time.
Those two counties are also expected to produce the majority of the 1.3 million jobs anticipated to be added by 2060. The report projects the two counties, which currently account for 71% of industry employment, to account for three out of every four new jobs.
Given the growth and the infrastructure that would demand, it's also no surprise that construction is expected to be the leading employment growth industry between 2020 and 2060. The institute estimates that construction will produce over 200,000 new job opportunities.
The professional/technical services, health, retail trade and administrative/waste services industries follow construction in anticipated employment growth over the next few decades.
Behind the rate slowdown
Age and a decline in children being born are big reasons for this expected growth rate slowdown. Utah's population is projected to get older, resulting in declining household sizes.
"If you're starting a family and having fewer kids, that's obviously going to have a huge impact on your average household size," Bateman explained, adding that household sizes and Utah's young population of the past few decades were the results of higher fertility rates.
This is something already happening. The percentage of Utahns under 18 has already dropped from 31.5% to about 29% over the past decade.
The institute projects that will continue to decline annually until it's 20.3% by 2060, based on projected trends. The median age is also projected to increase from 32 in 2020 to 42 by 2060. For context, the Census Bureau estimated the average age in the U.S. was 38.2 in 2018, up from 37.2 in 2010.
The institute's projection carries over into how many people are in the average household. The 2020 census data on household size is expected later this year; however, the Gardner Institute estimates the average Utah household dropped slightly from 3.11 to 3.06. It projects that the average household size will continue to decrease annually over time, falling to 2.45 people per household by 2060.
The report also indicates that net migration will ultimately replace natural growth as the leading reason Utah grows. What that means is future growth will have more to do with people choosing to move to Utah than babies being born in the state.
There is a brief period in the 2030s that natural growth is projected to be the driving factor in population growth. Emily Harris, a demographic analyst in the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, explained that "birth waves" still exist even as fertility rates drop.
"What we're anticipating in probably the next 10 years is that even as fertility rates decline, we will still have a large concentration of people at child-bearing ages, and that will result in just a larger number of births in that time period," she said. "After that time period kind of resolves itself, it will go back down to having a lull. That's pretty typical with most demographic models that you see."
What can knock these projections off course?
Harris said that it's difficult to track the reasons people leave Utah, which is the other major component in tracking net migration. The projection takes into account some reasons people leave doesn't define all the issues that may arise, such as cost or if Utah runs out of space in the Wasatch Front to construct more housing because there isn't reliable enough data to make those projections.
Cost hasn't been a general issue so far since people tend to move to a cheaper county than a cheaper state, Harris added.
Shortages of natural resources, such as if another megadrought impacts water supply, also aren't included because it's difficult to track. Bateman says major policy changes, investments are infrastructure projects other issues that can't really be predicted but can result in population trend shifts.
But those outside issues are why demographers believe this report matters. They are issues that state leaders and local governments will have to address in the coming years knowing very well that Utah's population is still growing.
Bateman says the institute doesn't advocate how communities address future populations, other than suggesting issues that will arise. For instance, crowded roads and schools are two issues that will have to be considered, but the report doesn't outline specific plans.
The report is instead a resource that helps in crafting policy that addresses what's likely to come.
"We just want this data to be used by anyone who is looking to the future," she said. "We're not going to dictate who we want to look at it. ... We're not going to tell anyone they can or can't or should or should not use our data."
