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SALT LAKE CITY — The college football landscape continues to be a crapshoot as we move through a global pandemic that forces us to watch whether a team boards an airplane in hopes of a game being played. But 2020 continues for a little longer.
Just this week there were five games that featured a ranked team that had a game canceled or postponed — nothing is equal.
That adds to the confusing task of ranking teams on unequal playing schedules — just ask Ohio State who had another game canceled this week and are at risk of missing the playoff simply because they may not even be eligible to qualify for the Big Ten Championship. This has led me to drop the Buckeyes to No. 4 in my ballot because Notre Dame and Clemson continue to play football.
I still believe Ohio State is probably worthy of my previous ranking of No. 2, but the games are starting to pass them by. But those top four teams — Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson and Ohio State — appear to be in a league of their own this season, and most seasons. Texas A&M and Florida are a close second group, and then it's a little more chaos.
Even with the College Football Playoff rankings out, my ballot hasn't changed a ton, though there have been some alterations. I respect the selection committee, and I factor their rankings into my overall consideration — as with other factors — but I wouldn't be true to myself if I completely shifted everything around. I also want to see a few things play out and I'm not necessarily in a rush to move some teams.
With that being said, here's the rationale for some of the choices on my ballot.
BYU-Cincy stays put ... for now?
The two are obviously separate entities but they've been linked throughout much of the season, and for good reason. The CFP selection committee sees a bigger divide between the two, though I don't see how it can be as big as it is currently. Cincinnati has a harder strength of schedule (Sagarin has Cincy at 84th and BYU at 108th as of Sunday), but the two are fairly close, statistically. The committee obviously loves Zach Wilson and sees him as a Heisman contender, so I don't quite get the split.
This week there wasn't really a reason to move teams above BYU and Cincy as the pair sat idle, but will that remain? Northwestern naturally helped some of that (more later), but Georgia, Miami, Oklahoma, Indiana and at least Iowa State are closing the gap. Each has tougher strength of schedules and has a more difficult road ahead. If they can continue to win, it's hard to believe I won't consider moving them up.
I've said for a few weeks now, specifically about BYU, having a lull in scheduling right as the committee is shaping its decisions is a very difficult challenge. It's a difficult challenge for me to assess, too. I like BYU and Cincy a lot and believe they're worthy of their ranking in my ballot, but would either stand an equal chance of winning if they replaced schedules with any of the teams around them? I'm not 100% convinced yet.
That's not to take away from their seasons, but if the teams around them continue to win, I'm going to be hard-pressed to keep my ballot the same in the top 10. That's not a threat, but a reality of the situation.
Nice try Northwestern
My previously ballot ranked Northwestern No. 15, six spots lower than where the CFP had them ranked. The favorable ranking in the CFP was a bit of a shock to me, but hey, they had done well and beat good teams along the way, so probably worthy of a look inside the top 10. But as fast as the Wildcats rose, their chances of a playoff berth all but dried up in an instant with a stunning loss to Michigan State.
At one point, Northwestern had more than a 92% probability of beating Michigan State and then quickly watched as that chance evaporated as the Spartans reeled off a pair of touchdowns and a field goal to take a 17-0 lead to start the game. Sure, Northwestern bounced back to take a lead to start the fourth quarter, but it was fool's gold as Michigan State closed out the game with a scoop-and-score touchdown as the clock expired.
Northwestern had everything going for it to close out the season: a high ranking, an easy close to the season's schedule (MSU, Minnesota and Illinois) and no real challenge in the West Division. Now, it's a whole new ball game and the Wildcats have to be thinking about what could have been. Northwestern is still a good team, which is why I dropped them to No. 19, but it's unfortunate it turned out this way.
Pac-12 Chaos
It wouldn't be the Pac-12 if there wasn't some chaos that happened around the league. After one week, Washington claimed the top spot in the North Division with a come-from-behind win over Utah, Oregon fell to Oregon State despite the refs trying to help the Ducks, and Colorado is 3-0 in a year when they weren't expected to amount to much with a brand new coach.
As a result, Oregon takes a drop in my ballot (falls nine spots to No. 18), USC gets a favorable boost due to the teams around it, Washington jumps up to No. 21 and Colorado enters my ballot for the first time this week at No. 25. How long any of this will last is anyone's guess as there's no real dominant team from the Pac-12 this season. Maybe it's Colorado.
Dropping Out: Auburn (5-3), Nevada (4-1), Texas (5-3)
Checking In: Colorado (3-0), Iowa (4-2), Tulsa (5-1)
In Consideration: Boise State (3-1), Buffalo (4-0), Liberty (9-1), Nevada (4-1)
If you have a question about any of the teams I ranked (or missed), hit me up on Twitter @JFurKSL and I'll do my best to explain my reasoning. If you can't see the ballot below, click here.
