Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
This archived news story is available only for your personal, non-commercial use. Information in the story may be outdated or superseded by additional information. Reading or replaying the story in its archived form does not constitute a republication of the story.
DREAMIN' OF MARCH — With two-three weeks left in the regular season for each Division I college basketball team in Utah, it’s the stretch run for the Cougars, Utes, Aggies, Wolverines, Wildcats and Thunderbirds.
But what are the chances they will get their “One Shining Moment” on the CBS/Turner family of networks this March?
"We've got a lot of things to get better at," said BYU coach Dave Rose, whose team has 3-of-4 games on the road before the WCC tournament opens March 1. "Offensively, I hope we can play together and make open shots and be aggressive. But the important thing is to get your team playing its best basketball, and hopefully we can do that.
"It’s a tough challenge, and we've got the schedule. This immediately pops out, with three-in-a-row on the road, starting with Thursday (against Pepperdine)."
The Pac-12, Mountain West, Western Athletic and Big Sky conference tournaments all open a week later, March 7, in Las Vegas and Reno, Nevada.
Here’s a look at the resume and tourney potential for each team.
Utah (15-9, 7-6 Pac-12)
RPI: 59
KenPom: 61
ESPN BPI: 73
Best win(s): Arizona State, Oregon, Missouri, Washington
Outlook: The Utes have the top-rated RPI in the state, but trail rival BYU in predictive metrics like KenPom and the BPI. With quality wins over Arizona State and Oregon in conference play, as well as a home win over potentially surging Missouri in the non-conference portion of the schedule, the Utes are likely in the best position for an at-large bid.
A run in the Pac-12 tournament could put them squarely on the selection committee’s bubble. Likewise, the Utes have shown themselves capable of losing to Washington, Washington State, UCLA, USC and Colorado — their remaining opponents in Pac-12 play, which could drop Utah as low as the bottom third in the conference.
BYU (20-7, 9-5 West Coast)
RPI: 72
KenPom: 62
ESPN BPI: 61
Best win(s): Utah, Utah Valley
Outlook: The Cougars' season in 2017-18 can be best described as "average."
Bereft of the highest quality of wins, BYU's only upset losses have come at Pacific and at Loyola Marymount.
While those losses can’t be ignored, a win over a potential top-four team in the Pac-12 and a road win over the best team in the WAC not named New Mexico State doesn’t hurt its resume, either.
The Cougars still have one chance at a high-quality win when No. 9 Gonzaga visits the Marriott Center in the regular-season finale next week. Ironically, though, BYU’s at-large berth may be best tied to rival Utah and what kind of run the Utes put together through the Pac-12 tournament.
Utah Valley (17-8, 6-3 Western Athletic)
RPI: 104
KenPom: 106
ESPN BPI: 91
Best win(s): Grand Canyon, UT San Antonio
Outlook: Devoid of quality wins, the Wolverines likely need to rely on the end-of-season WAC Tournament to qualify for their first-ever Big Dance.
New Mexico State has proven once again to be the class of the conference, and any talk of tourney bids goes through the Aggies. But the Wolverines have gone toe-to-toe with them in the past, have dispatched every other challenger in the WAC thus far, and a home win Thursday over NMSU would go a long way toward determining their postseason fate.
Utah State (14-13, 7-7 Mountain West)
RPI: 126
KenPom: 134
ESPN BPI: 134
Best win(s): UNLV, Boise State, UC Irvine
Outlook: Stuck in the soft middle of the Mountain West Conference, the Aggies have proven themselves able to beat two of the top teams in the conference in UNLV and Boise State.
Inconsistency has also dogged the team, as was the case during a four-game losing streak that included a loss to 11-16 Colorado State.
Koby McEwen and Sam Merrill are two of the top guards in the conference. Will it be enough to carry them through the Mountain West tournament in Las Vegas and to the league’s automatic berth?
Weber State (17-7, 10-2 Big Sky)
RPI: 174
KenPom: 145
ESPN BPI: 123
Best win(s): Utah State, Portland State
Outlook: The reality of the Big Sky is that no team has done enough to put itself on the committee’s radar for an at-large berth. That makes the end-of-season tournament in Reno vital for every team in the league.
Jerrick Harding has been sensational in his second season with the Wildcats, and Zach Braxton has been a vital pillar in the post at the Purple Palace. The inside-out combo could help the Wildcats to the top of the league in three weeks — but 20-5 Montana and 17-7 Idaho won’t make it easy.
Two Weeks Left
Southern Utah (10-13, 4-8 Big Sky)
RPI: 231
KenPom: 270
ESPN BPI: 307
Best win(s): Central Michigan
Outlook: Southern Utah won’t be an easy out in the Big Sky tournament. But the Thunderbirds’ resume is a long cry from at-large worthy, and they will need to win the conference tournament title to make the NCAA Tournament.
Still, stranger things have happened. Brandon Better, who averages 12.5 points per game, and BYU graduate transfer Jamal Aytes (12.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg) have made the Thunderbirds … well, better in Todd Simon’s first year as head coach.