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Some big games were played this weekend and they’ve shaken up the BCS rankings yet again, but have our bowl projections changed?
BCS Bowls
Discover BCS National Championship Game: Alabama vs. Oregon.With Kansas State ahead of Oregon in the BCS standings, the Ducks are going to have to leap the Wildcats to make it to the national championship game. This looks like it is going to happen if both teams stay undefeated.
If that is the case, Oregon will have gone on to beat Cal, 14th-ranked Stanford, 11th-ranked Oregon State, and either USC or UCLA in the conference championship game. Kansas State will have gone on to beat TCU, Baylor, and 17th-ranked Texas if things stay the same.
The advantage in strength of schedule will assuredly push the Ducks over Kansas State if both teams go undefeated, which is what I am projecting.
As for Alabama, I actually thought that the Crimson Tide got outplayed on Saturday by LSU, but I do still believe that the Tide are the best team in the SEC. Alabama won’t lose the rest of the season.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State vs. Notre Dame. Kansas State will go undefeated with no real tests remaining outside of Texas and they should handle the Longhorns pretty easily. The Wildcats also don’t have to worry about a conference championship game, which helps and hurts.
It helps because the odds of going undefeated increase dramatically without having to play another tough team. It hurts because the odds of Oregon jumping Kansas State also go up because the Ducks’ schedule will be tougher. As the Big 12 champions, Kansas State will fill the conference’s slot in the Fiesta Bowl.
The Fiesta Bowl gets the first at-large pick and will take Notre Dame. If the Irish go undefeated, they will not jump either Oregon or Kansas State so they’ll still end up here. I project Notre Dame to lose to USC in the last game of the season, but Notre Dame’s ability to fill any stadium in the country will make them very appetizing for any BCS bowl. Because the Fiesta Bowl gets the first pick, it will take the Irish.
Winner gets the winner of Oregon-Alabama. Psych! Just wanted to make sure you were paying attention. Too bad.
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Clemson. Georgia and Florida will both likely win out which will put the Bulldogs in the SEC title game because they beat Florida. After losing to Alabama in the SEC title game, Georgia will take the place of the Crimson Tide in the Sugar Bowl, which is tied to the SEC champion.
It’s hard right now to say who will be the next at-large pick, but the Sugar Bowl gets the second at-large pick and I am projecting them to take Clemson. Most are projecting Oklahoma here, but I don’t believe that the Sooners will make it through the rest of their schedule unscathed (Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, TCU).
Clemson will also not get through their schedule without a loss — probably losing to South Carolina in the last week of the season — but the difference is that puts the Tigers at two losses, whereas the Sooners will have three losses. Are there better teams than Oklahoma and Clemson? Sure, but they are all SEC teams and there can only be two teams from each conference in BCS bowl games.
Discover Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Louisville.So, by the way, Louisville is undefeated. Even if they don’t finish undefeated, the Cardinals will likely win the Big East. However, I am projecting that they will finish undefeated. If they do, there’s a decent chance that they get picked by the Sugar Bowl instead of Clemson or Oklahoma.
Keep in mind, the Big East champion is guaranteed a spot in a BCS bowl game; they just don’t have a tie in to a specific BCS game. So they are open to be picked at-large by any BCS bowl game, but they will still likely be picked last because the Big East travels so poorly.
Florida State will probably win the ACC and end up in the Orange Bowl because of it.
Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio: USC vs. Nebraska.I predict that the Trojans will win out which would have them beating UCLA along the way to clinch a spot in the conference title game. I project that there will be three, nine-win teams to finish the season behind Oregon in the Pac-12, but the Rose Bowl will take the team that makes them the most money and that’s USC.
Nebraska seems to be the only team who actually wants to win the Big Ten ... who can. Undefeated Ohio State would love to win it, but they are on probation and can’t. That leaves the Rose Bowl to take Nebraska as the champion of a very weak Big Ten.
BYU
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: BYU vs. San Diego State. There will likely be multiple teams atop the Mountain West Conference at the end of the year. San Diego State and Boise State are my favorites to be there, but it’s also possible for Fresno State to be there as well.
If that is the case, the Las Vegas Bowl, which gets the Mountain West Champions, will likely take Boise State because the Broncos are the highest profile team among the three and they fill that stadium every time they get sent to Vegas.
That would leave the hometown San Diego State Aztecs for the Poinsettia Bowl to pick. There is a very intriguing outside chance, however, that the Cougars get a rematch with Boise State. The Broncos still have Nevada looming on their schedule. That’s a losable game and if that happens, the Poinsettia Bowl wouldn’t have any problems with a rematch between BYU and Boise State.
Pac-12 Bowls
In order to figure out where or if Utah is going bowling this season, we have to look at where everyone else in the Pac-12 is going to wind up.
First of all, Utah is going to make a bowl game. Where things were going wrong at the beginning of the year, they are going right now. Penalties are down, sacks are down and turnovers are down. Travis Wilson looks solid, not exceptional yet, but solid. The interception on Saturday was his first really bad mental mistake.
Wilson opens up the Ute offense in a way that allows them to put points on the board consistently. The biggest aspect of a potential turnaround is that the confidence level is sky high on this team right now and that can make all the difference going on the road against Washington.
As of right now, I am projecting the Utes to win out and finish 7-5. The defense is clicking as well and has really played well since the USC game. They should shut down Keith Price and Washington. The Arizona game is a bigger concern for me because of the schematic matchup, but I think the Utes will win both games and finish 7-5 after beating Colorado. I know what happened last year, but this year’s Colorado is so bad, last year’s team looks like the 2008 New England Patriots right now. Utah won’t lose to Colorado again.
So here’s the projected final standings for the Pac-12 teams that we are projecting to be bowl eligible (for bowl projection purposes, we will disregard the divisions):
Oregon: 12-0 (9-0)
Stanford: 9-3 (7-2)
Oregon State: 9-3 (6-3)
USC: 9-4 (6-3)
UCLA: 8-4 (5-4)
Arizona State: 7-5 (5-4)
Utah: 7-5 (5-4)
Washington: 7-5 (5-4)
Arizona: 6-6 (3-6)
Oregon will go to the national title game and the Pac-12 will have another BCS bowl bound team even though it will not have another team with less than three losses. This will happen if for no other reason than the Rose Bowl nearly always wanting to keep its Pac-12-Big Ten matchup.
With three teams at 9-3, you might think that the Rose Bowl would have to take the only team in that group with seven conference wins (Stanford), but that is not necessarily the case. When Oregon goes to the national title game, the Rose Bowl can then take whomever they want, inside or outside the Pac-12.
As mentioned, however, the Rose Bowl likes to stay with its matchup between the Pac-12 and the Big Ten. If that’s the case, the Rose Bowl can take whomever they want from the Pac-12 regardless of record in or out of conference. The choice will come down to which team will bring the most fans and draw the most television viewers. That team will be USC.
From there, the Alamo Bowl has the next pick of Pac-12 teams. Stanford doesn’t traditionally travel well, so I am projecting the Alamo Bowl to take Oregon State. Even though Stanford has a better-projected record, they would get passed up by the next bowl, the Holiday Bowl, because UCLA is in the mix there. UCLA would easily bring more fans to the Holiday Bowl and that would send Stanford to the Sun Bowl.
After the Sun Bowl, the Las Vegas Bowl will get the next pick and choose between Arizona State, Utah and Washington. It is likely that the Utes get the nod here because they will travel better than both of the other programs and have had good experience in the Vegas Bowl. However, Arizona State could easily get the slot here too because they would also bring a good amount of fans to party it up in Vegas.
The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco comes next and Washington would likely get the nod there over whoever remains, either Utah or Arizona State. That leaves the New Mexico Bowl as the last Pac-12 tie in. I am projecting that it will be Arizona State after the Las Vegas bowl picks Utah instead of the Sun Devils.
Arizona wouldn’t get left out of the party, with a likely bid from either the Pinstripe Bowl or the Military Bowl.
So the projection for the Utes is to the Las Vegas Bowl.
Maaco Bowl Las Vegas: Utah vs. Boise State.The Utes would likely play the Broncos who would likely be the first pick out of the Mountain West Conference.
Other possible destinations (listed in my order of probability) would be the New Mexico Bowl against Nevada, the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl against Navy, the Pinstripe Bowl against TCU and the Military Bowl against Middle Tennessee State.
Utah State
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Utah State vs. Northern Illinois.There will be one person commenting that the Aggies are little more than a footnote in this article when they may be the best team in the state. When you fill your stadium for an 8-2 team, then come talk to me.
At any rate, I am projecting the Aggies to win the WAC and get to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl again, this time taking on Northern Illinois. Utah State fans may be asking how they can win 10 games (as I project) and still play in a bowl as low on the totem poll as the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. You have BYU to thank for that. Normally the WAC champion would go to the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego, but because the independent BYU has a deal with the bowl, Utah State will head to Boise while the Cougars head to the beaches of San Diego.
For more opinion, projections and predictions, go to BYUtahInsiders.com.
Trevor Amicone is the founder of byutahinsiders.com, which covers BYU, Utah and national college football with weekly polls, bowl projections, opinions and analysis. Follow its brand new Twitter page at @BYUtahInsiders and Trevor's at @TrevorAmicone.
