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CLIVE, Iowa -- My bio says that I "currently cheer from Iowa," the state famous for corn and caucuses. In fact, I've heard a comedian say Iowa is an ancient Native American word for "the state that only matters for one day every four years."
With the 2012 Iowa caucuses coming up Tuesday, I'd like to point out a couple of crossovers between politics and sports.
First, in both politics and sports there are overly passionate fans who mistake failure of a rival as a success for themselves.
Second, political and sporting performances seem to be graded on a curve of what the expectations were beforehand. New York Times Blogger Nate Silver notes that in early political contests, "performance in an absolute sense has mattered very little—it's mostly how a candidate performs relative to expectations."
The Armed Forces bowl will both close out 2011 for the BYU Cougars and offer a preview of next year. In last year's bowl game, BYU lit up another CUSA opponent and may have been given too much credit for beating a reeling team with an injured quarterback. High expectations and self- inflicted wounds in this year's most-hyped games cast a shadow over the early part of BYU's 2011 performance.
Like political expectations, I feel like even if BYU plays as well as they did in the 2010 New Mexico Bowl, the reaction will probably be a little more muted. BYU fans see Tulsa as a solid opponent, but the natural reaction based on the early stumbles and last year's bowl experience may cause fans to exercise caution in extrapolating from this year's bowl, no matter the result.
Going into Friday, both Tulsa (8-4) and BYU (9-3) are in the unfortunate position of losing games against solid competition and winning games against shaky competition. BYU's best win is probably the miracle finish at home against Utah State, who finished 7-6. Tulsa's best win is either over 7-5 SMU or 7-6 Marshall.
So, while neither team can provide the other with a great win or a shocking loss, no matter the outcome, the winner of the Armed Forces Bowl will claim their best win of the season.
Also, perhaps most prominent in many fans' minds is the revenge factor for a 2007 loss where Tulsa's offense unleashed a slew of trick plays. BYU also has the chance of ending the year with at least 10 wins and in the Top 25 for the fourth time in five years.
Beyond Friday, I think BYU fans are curious about what they've now got. The team has been somewhat reset, and this game will reset fans' expectations for 2012.
Going into the bowl, it looks like the receivers are exciting and the defense is solid. Nelson has been unconventional, enthusiastic and entertaining, but how far can enthusiasm take the team?
Also, it's not just BYU fans that are having a hard time figuring out what to expect from this game. Las Vegas Casinos originally favored BYU by as many as three points, but so much money has apparently come in on Tulsa that now it's the Golden Hurricane that is favored to win by one point.
I'd like to say that BYU will come into the game feeling disrespected; that since the big money is coming in on the Golden Hurricane the players will play the no-one- believes-in-us card, but I just don't think that's how BYU operates. Once expectations are at a certain level, it's tough to lower them, even if that would make the feeling of success a lot easier to achieve.
In high school I remember wishing I'd gotten myself arrested at age 14. The idea was that everything I did after that would seem great to my parents. "Well, at least he's not getting arrested anymore," they'd say.
BYU is going to have high standards and set goals high. Striking a balance between shooting for the absolute best and still being satisfied with the best you can get is tough to pull off. Just on its own, BYU's 2011 performance has been OK. On the line Friday is the chance to get a win that would leave BYU with a good, but not great year for 2011 with a lot of pieces to build on and few others left to put together for 2012.
Greg Welch, a contributor on CougarBoard.com, has followed BYU sports from six different states and currently cheers from Iowa. Professionally, he works at an ad agency and can be found at @ArtDirectorBYU on Twitter.
