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Saturday's massive Marriott Center meeting between BYU and the 6th/7th-ranked Baylor Bears has been made more difficult for the Cougars with the news that forward Stephen Rogers is out two to four weeks after Thursday night surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee.
BYU head coach Dave Rose said Rogers had been dealing with a knee problem for the last couple of weeks. The junior from Mesa, Ariz. was forced to leave Thursday's practice early with knee pain; he headed to the hospital for an MRI and was undergoing surgery soon thereafter.
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The 6'8" Rogers was a multiple-use player for Rose, having played at the shooting guard, small forward and power forward positions for the Cougars this season. A ineffective starter for the first two games of the 2011-12 campaign, Rogers has come off the bench in each of the last eight games, averaging 10.9 points per game as a reserve and Rose's primary scoring threat off the pine.
Rogers' three-point shooting (40% on 15/38 from the arc) and length will be sorely missed against a Baylor team that is the tallest and most athletic squad BYU will see this season. With 6'9" forward Chris Collinsworth sidelined since the third game of the season and expected to be out another month with knee issues, BYU's anticipated size surplus is now further diminished.
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The absence of Rogers coincides with point guard Matt Carlino's eligibility for the Baylor game, but while Carlino should be able to replace some of Rogers' bench scoring punch, the Cougars ability to better match up with the 8-0 Bears takes a significant hit.
What Carlino can do is give BYU another three-point shooter on the floor, and the Cougars' long-distance marksmanship will be at a premium versus a Baylor team that leads the country in two-point field goal percentage defense.
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6'5" wing Damarcus Harrison may see some of Rogers' minutes, and 6'10" forward/center Nate Austin should see a jump in his 10.8 minute per game average. Those two players' skill-sets are vastly different, but both will be integral to keeping the team's wheels turning until the aforementioned ailing forwards are able to make their return.
After a solid start to the season (first six games: 12.2 mpg, 5.8 ppg, 40% fg, 42% 3pfg, 6/8 ft), Harrison has been slumping of late as his confidence and productivity have waned (last four gms: 9.5 mpg, 2.3 ppg, 20% fg, 10% 3pfg, 0/2 ft). The freshman from South Carolina is supremely talented and has a sweet shot; it has just taken him a while to get comfortable. No time like the present to give BYU a shot in arm on the wing.
Austin meantime has been nothing short of a revelation as BYU's third post player, and his productivity trend is the opposite of Harrison's. Over the first six games, Austin was averaging 7 mpg and 1.7 ppg, on 3/6 shooting from the field, with no three-point attempts, while pulling down 1.3 reb/gm. In the last four games, Austin is averaging 16.5 mpg and 9.5 ppg, on 17/22 (77%) shooting from the field and 4/7 shooting from the arc, with a three-point field goal in each of the last four games; he has also averaged six reb/gm over that span.
A forgotten man in the forward mix has been Josh Sharp, who was recently hampered by a sprained ankle. He has not done much lately (two total points, three total rebounds in the last five games), but against a team like Baylor, should he recapture the energy with which he started the season (5.0 rpg in his first four games of the year), Rose would gladly take that kind of help on the boards in a Baylor game that will require maximum effort underneath the hoop.
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No one relishes a challenge more than Dave Rose; his teams specialize in bouncing back. Now in his seventh season as BYU's head coach, Rose has seen his teams lose consecutive regular season games only twice (once in 2006-07, and once in 2008-09). Whether dealing with Jimmer Fredette's bout with mononucleosis in 2009-10, or Chris Collinsworth's season-ending injury and Brandon Davies' late season departure in 2010-11, Rose will not allow an unexpected absence to modify his or his team's expectations.
Previously a popular pick to stage the Saturday upset, BYU has seen its chances to beat the Bears take a hit; Rose himself speculated that it would be a "big blow" if Rogers were not able to play against Baylor. That said, if there is way to win the game, trust Rose, his staff and players to find it. I look forward to seeing how the visitors from Waco handle 20-thousand fans and the bite of a short- handed underdog.
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Friday night update:
I talked to future Lone Peak HS big man Eric Mika this evening, shortly after he called Dave Rose to verbally commit to the BYU Basketball program. Mika says Rose offered him in late October/early November; he says he also had scholarship offers from Utah State and Weber State, along with interest from Utah, Stanford, Boston College and some smaller eastern schools.
The 6'8" forward will sign his letter of intent with Lone Peak teammate Nick Emery in November of 2012. Their Knights teammate T.J. Haws joined Emery in verbally committing earlier this year; he will be a signee in November of 2013.
Mika is sitting out the 2012 varsity season on a UHSAA transfer ruling; he will play the 2012-13 campaign for Quincy Lewis' team at defending 5A champion Lone Peak after transferring from 2A Waterford, where he averaged 17 points and 12 rebounds a game in 2010-11.
Mika told me he and his family "are all real excited" about his decision to play for BYU, and to play with current teammates Emery and Haws; of joining them at BYU, Mika said "I love it."
Mika says he was drawn to BYU's style under Dave Rose. "I really love watching them play," he said, adding that Rose "has a great reputation."
BYU Basketball has liberally utilized what can be called the "Lone Peak Pipeline" in populating the Cougar program with top-line talent. Sam Burgess was followed by Jackson Emery, then Tyler Haws (currently serving an LDS mission in the Philippines), Nate Austin (current), Josh Sharp (current), and now the committed LP trio of Nick Emery, T.J. Haws and Mika.
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