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SALT LAKE CITY -- The BCS Bowl picture is getting a little bit clearer while some of the local bowl scenarios have become more confusing. We’ll clear things up for you as bowl season approaches.
BCS bowls
Allstate BCS National Championship Game:LSU vs. Alabama. There is almost zero scenario in which these two SEC teams do not meet in the national title game. LSU could lose to Georgia in the SEC title game by four touchdowns and the Tigers would likely still remain in the two slot in the BCS standings.
The margin between those top two and the rest of the field is way too much to be overcome by Oklahoma State (No. 3) or Stanford (No. 4). The only chance would be for Georgia to beat LSU by 30-40 points and for Oklahoma State to beat Oklahoma by a similar margin. That could potentially put the Cowboys into the national championship, but seeing as how neither result is likely, it’s looking like a rematch for better or for worse.
Rose Bowl game presented by Vizio:Oregon vs. Wisconsin. The Ducks will not lose to UCLA in the Pac- 12 championship game and will take the Pac-12’s slot in the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin takes on Michigan State in the Big 10 title game this weekend and after seeing the Badgers whop Penn State last week, it’s clear that Wisconsin is on a mission. That mission should include revenge against the Spartans who beat Wisconsin last month. It’s tough to beat a good team twice in one year, and Wisconsin is playing its best football all season.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl:Oklahoma vs. Stanford. It seems like everyone is picking Oklahoma State to beat Oklahoma in Stillwater this weekend, but I’m sticking with my original pick. The Sooners at least attempt to play defense while the Cowboys have given up on that altogether and now try only to outscore people. I expect the Cowboys to experience a hangover after their national championship hopes were seemingly dashed a week ago when they lost to Iowa State.Stanford should fit here unless the Fiesta Bowl picks Michigan instead. The Cardinal are guaranteed a spot in a BCS bowl if they stay at fourth in the BCS rankings. They could get jumped by Virginia Tech if the Hokies blow out Clemson in the ACC title game, but even if they do, they should still end up here. The small chance that Stanford ends up on the outside looking in would be if the Fiesta Bowl picks Michigan instead of Stanford. That would leave the next choice to the Sugar Bowl, which may select Oklahoma State (if the Cowboys do indeed lose to Oklahoma this weekend) instead of Stanford, believing that the Cowboys would bring more fans than Stanford, which is known for not traveling well.
Allstate Sugar Bowl:Michigan vs. Houston. Houston will automatically qualify if it can win the Conference USA championship game over Southern Miss this weekend. The Cougars should take care of business against the Golden Eagles, so that side of the bowl is taken care of.
The other side, however, is a little more confusing. Michigan should end up here, but it will have to end up in the top 14 of the BCS standings to qualify for a BCS game. Right now it is 16th. That means it would need to jump two teams. The two most likely teams for the Wolverines to jump would be the loser of the Big 10 title game and Georgia if they lose to LSU in the SEC title game. Georgia sits at 14 and should fall below Michigan with a loss.
The problem would be if Wisconsin beats Michigan State in a close game. Wisconsin sits at 15 and Michigan State sits at 13. The Spartans may not fall below Michigan if they lose in a close one in the Big 10 title game. If not, Michigan will likely get left out of the BCS picture. The only other possible hope for Michigan would be if Oregon somehow loses to UCLA or Oklahoma gets blown out by Oklahoma State badly enough to fall from tenth.
If Michigan doesn’t get in the top 14, Oklahoma State will likely fill its spot. If Oklahoma State goes to the Fiesta Bowl and Michigan doesn’t qualify, the Sugar Bowl spot may fall to Michigan State or Boise State, in that order.
Discover Orange Bowl:West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech. Clemson is not the same team it was on Oct. 1 when it beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg and neither is Virginia Tech. Clemson has gone backwards and Tech has taken leaps and bounds forward since then.
West Virginia started here in my projections and it should end here after beating Pitt last weekend, but you never know with the Big East. This may actually be a decent match-up for the Orange Bowl, pitting teams in neighboring states against each other in the otherwise maligned bowl game.
Pac-12 bowls
The bowl-eligible teams in the Pac-12 are Oregon, Stanford, Arizona State, Cal, Utah, Washington and potentially UCLA. UCLA will likely finish 6-7 so it will need to petition the NCAA for a bowl berth, something that the NCAA may deny the Bruins given the fact that there are many bowl-eligible teams in the country sitting at 6-6 that would be getting kicked out of a bowl game by UCLA.
Rose Bowl:Oregon vs. Wisconsin;Fiesta Bowl:Stanford vs. Oklahoma
Valero Alamo Bowl (Dec. 29, 7 p.m., San Antonio): The Alamo Bowl has second choice among Pac-12 teams. Stanford would fall here if it didn’t go to a BCS bowl game. The Alamo Bowl’s choices fall to Washington, Cal or Utah, which all sit at 7-5. After the Rose Bowl takes the conference champions, standings are thrown out the window and the bowl games select the teams that they believe will fit best for their bowl games based on ticket sales, match-ups and travel situations.
The Alamo Bowl will take into account which one of these three teams will bring the most fans with them and the potential match-ups. No bowl game wants a blowout if it can help it. The opposite side of the bowl goes to the third choice from the Big 12. If Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, the Sooners will probably end up here. Oklahoma would be a bad match-up for Utah, but Cal or Washington would match up better. Washington would likely travel better and beat both Utah and Cal during the season. This likely puts Washington here from the Pac-12.
If the Sooners beat Oklahoma State, this would likely put Kansas State in the Alamo Bowl from the Big 12. That would be a better match-up for Utah and this could put the Utes into consideration. The Alamo Bowl believes that Utah would travel well, considering the novelty that the bowl destination would represent to the Ute fan base. This would have been the sure destination for the Utes had they beaten Colorado, but they didn’t, which will likely mean it’s Washington here. Projection: Washington vs. Kansas State.
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl (Dec. 28, 6 p.m., San Diego): This bowl holds the third choice of Pac-12 teams, or in this case the fourth choice, with Oregon and Stanford both in BCS bowls. With Washington going to the Alamo Bowl, this leaves Cal and Utah at 7-5 for the Holiday Bowl to choose from. They could conceivably choose Arizona State here also, but they likely wouldn’t with the Sun Devils at 6-6 going through a coaching change.
Cal seems to be the obvious choice, having to travel from just upstate. The Golden Bears would travel well to San Diego and will likely get the bid. There is an outside chance that the Utes will go here because of the novelty factor. Cal has been in the Holiday Bowl in 2006 and 2004 but would still likely get the bid with a big alumni base in Southern California. The Big 12 match-up might also make a difference. If Texas fills the Big 12 slot in the Holiday Bowl, the Utes would match up better than they would with Missouri or Baylor, which are more likely to end up here. It may be more likely for the Utes to end up in the higher-profile Alamo Bowl than the Holiday Bowl. Projection: Cal vs. Missouri.
Hyundai Sun Bowl (Dec. 31, noon, El Paso, Texas): The location of this bowl game is not ideal, but the Sun Bowl is considered a very good bowl game and would feature a high- profile match-up. This is where the Utes will likely end up, with the Sun Bowl highly unlikely to take Arizona State instead of Utah.
The Sun Devils fan base would not travel to El Paso, whereas Ute fans might travel there, being excited for a new bowl opportunity. There are two likely match-ups for the Utes coming out of the ACC’s fourth slot — Georgia Tech or Virginia. Both teams are on the borderline of being ranked, and they are both good match-ups for the Utes. It would be miserable for the Utes to prepare for the Georgia Tech option, but they do a relatively good job against the triple option. Virginia is also a good match- up for the Utes, but it looks like it will be the Yellow Jackets. Projection: Utah vs. Georgia Tech.
Maaco Bowl Las Vegas (Dec. 22, 6 p.m., Las Vegas): This is likely where Arizona State would fall at 6-6, the only bowl- eligible team with that record in the Pac-12. The Sun Devils would be the only option here and rest assured, the Sun Devil students and fans would have a good time getting over finals in Vegas.
The Sun Devils would meet the best choice from the Mountain West Conference, not the first-place team, but the best choice. That means the Vegas Bowl could take either TCU or Boise State. The Vegas Bowl was thrilled with the turnout from Boise last year and would likely get a better turnout again this year from the Broncos than the Horned Frogs. Projection: Arizona State vs. Boise State.
As mentioned, UCLA will likely petition the NCAA for a bowl berth after finishing 6-7. Ted Miller of ESPN is now reporting that UCLA will seek a bowl bid. I don’t think the NCAA will grant the petition, however, but if it did, the Bruins would likely end up in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco.
The Pac-12 will not fill its slot with the Gidian New Mexico Bowl unless Stanford is not selected for a BCS bowl and UCLA’s petition is granted. If that happens, Stanford probably will go to the Alamo Bowl, Cal will go to the Holiday Bowl, Washington would likely go to the Sun Bowl, Utah would drop to the Las Vegas Bowl, Arizona State would head to the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl and UCLA would go to the New Mexico Bowl.
BYU bowl options
Bell Helicopters Armed Forces Bowl(Dec. 30, 10 a.m., Fort Worth, Texas): BYU has accepted its inevitable invitation to the Armed Forces Bowl, the only question now is who it will play. It seems to be narrowed down to two options now: SMU and Tulsa. ESPN is projecting it to be Tulsa. Meanwhile, Jerry Palm for CBS has the Cougars playing SMU.
The Armed Forces Bowl has the third choice of teams from Conference USA. The third-place team in Conference USA looks like it is going to be Tulsa, but because the bowl doesn’t have to necessarily take the third-place team from Conference USA, it could easily pick SMU, which would probably travel better with the bowl game being in its backyard. This makes sense from a financial standpoint, but Tulsa would make for the more attractive team and likely a more entertaining game. Projection: BYU vs. Tulsa.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 17, 3:30 p.m., Boise): Like the Cougars, Utah State has also already accepted an invitation to a bowl game, so the Aggies will be headed to Boise for bowl season. The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl is slated to make the third choice of MAC teams, which would likely be Toledo or Ohio. Ohio plays Northern Illinois in the MAC championship game this week and a loss will put it at 6-3 in conference play, making it the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl’s probable pick. Projection: Utah State vs. Ohio.
Trevor Amicone is the sports director at 88.1 Weber FM, "Ogden's Radio Station," and host of the sports talk radio show, "Fully Loaded Sports with Trevor Amicone." Follow him on Twitter at @TrevorAmicone
