GAME PREVIEW: BYU at Oregon State

PROVO -- There are a lot of positives to take out of the BYU 29-16 victory over San Jose State. There is also a lot to work on. These are the games that are a problem to gauge where BYU is as a football program. Yes, they won and it was pretty decisive, but these WAC teams aren't at the level to judge where they actually are. These were the games last year that entrenched Jake Heaps as the starter, and they may leave him riding the bench this year. Cody Hoffman looked to be every bit of an All-American last year, this year they spread it out so much that the playmakers get lost in the relative dominance.

There should be nothing taken away from the Cougars for the victory, they did everything they needed to in order to secure a win. The Spartans wanted to win just as much as the Cougars. The talent dropped off, but that isn't BYU's problem; the players can only play who is across from them. Overall they played well, but as they play their remaining few tough games they will need to get rid of the turnovers and play four full quarters.

Here is a look at some specifics learned last week and what Oregon State will bring to the game on Saturday.

What did we learn from the previous game?

Riley's the quarterback. Riley Nelson wasn't great. He played well enough to get a win over an average team. However with the talent on the offense that is all he needs to do. He was consistently decent. His passes flutter, he makes a bad decision or two and he fumbled on the 3-yard line, but he just gets the job done. He has a Tebow-esque quality about him; you could break down his problems, but really all you have to do is look at his results. He has five touchdowns in three quarters, from the end of the Utah State game through the first half of last week. Even his fumble turned into something good. Things just fall right. He only completed 14 passes, but with his added running ability and the overall BYU ground game that is all that is needed. Michael Alisa is the hero of the hour. He played great, 16 rushes for 91 yards, kept the defense on their heels. But, why is he playing over three proven players? Not saying he shouldn't play, his game proved that, but is he going to be the back? Is Brian Kariya now just a fullback in the Manase Tonga-mold? Is JJ Di Luigi the change of pace back instead of the feature back? What does this mean for Josh Quezada?

The depth of this group is borderline ridiculous; all talented and all have a different skill set. It's a bounty of riches, but can they all get touches? Should they all get touches? There isn't a great drop from one to four and that will be a blessing as the season moves along.

Offensive line did work. There isn't much to say about them, they had a job and they did it. No one was fantastic, their names weren't called much and they just did what they needed to do. Kudos to the line, as the season rolls along they will get stronger and the offense will prosper because of it.

Linebackers are running out of superlatives. This group is fast, physical and smart. There isn't much more that you need from a unit. Kyle Van Noy is every bit as good as the press clippings. He just makes plays all game long. Jordan Pendleton came back from injury with a sack and balanced the defense. Uona Kaveinga anchors the defense and punishes ball carriers. Lost in the shuffle has been Brandon Ogletree. He led the team in tackles, but doesn't get the credit he deserves for being a solid player. Could start on a lot of teams across the country, but is possibly the least talked about player on the defense.

What lingering questions do we still have?

Can the secondary hold up? BYU only gave up 16 points, but the secondary needs to step up or that number could get bad, fast. A subpar passing attack with no running game led to a quarterback going 25 of 35 for 255 yards. He had no touchdowns and threw two picks but they didn't play that well. Two Spartans had 20 catches between them. Tight end Ryan Otten had 9 catches for 108 yards and their receiver Noel Grigsby had 11 for 88. Tight ends are linebackers and safeties responsibility, and receivers are the corner's problem. If the secondary can't target and stop two players that each had more than the other five receivers with catches, each other receiver had one. They need to fix the scheme or the players.

Can BYU survive losing the turnover battle again? Nelson struggled with turnovers. He was seven yards from making this game a blowout, a fumble on the three and an interception on the four. That is at least six points left on the field if not 14. The offense played well, but if they continue to leave points in the "blue" zone then a loss to an inferior opponent will happen soon. How long is Nelson the answer? Nelson took control of the team, and the job is his to lose. But will the coaching staff be fine sitting Heaps with all the talent? Not to say that Nelson will make mistakes and lose the job, but is the job Nelson's from here on out? This question won't be answered this week, but it is the big question lingering over the players on the team.

Can kick coverage teams stop big returns? This isn't a huge problem, but they need to cover better. They didn't give up a touchdown, but this is something that can be fine-tuned over the rest of the season. The special teams have been good, but this could be the one small weakness.

What can BYU expect from Oregon State?

This team is better than their record. They have been hurt, embarrassed and they are fighting for pride. James Rodgers is starting to get healthy and would give the Beavers three playmakers outside, if he is playing at full speed the secondary will have problems containing them. Malcolm Agnew leads the team in rushing, but hasn't played since the first game. He had 223 yards in their opening game but left with a hamstring injury. He might play which would give the Beavers another weapon on offense.

An offense that will move the ball. They are incredibly young at the skill positions. Sean Mannion is their quarterback and he is a freshman. Agnew is a freshman and his backup, Jovan Stevenson, is a sophomore. Their two leading receivers are juniors. The only real contributing senior is Rodgers. They haven't put the ball into the end zone that much yet, but they have moved the ball. They are right around 400 yards per game, but they only average 21 points per game. They got shutout by Wisconsin which drops the numbers lower than they should be. They aren't great, but they could catch BYU off-guard if they are expecting an easy game. Not a very good defense. Their best defender from last year is playing in the NFL and they don't have much after him. They give up 30 points per game and really haven't had any silver linings. The lowest point total they have allowed has been 27 to UCLA and Arizona, two subpar offenses. They don't have a lot of experience or talent, but just like any team they are getting better through time. They will be able make some plays, but if BYU's offense is clicking it should make easy work of the defense.

A different team than the Vegas Bowl two years ago. The last time these teams met was in the Las Vegas Bowl in 2009 and this team doesn't resemble that team at all. BYU handily beat that team on a windy cold day two years ago. This Beavers team has basically completely changed since then. They will have players and coaches that remember that game, but the only contributor from then to now is Rodgers. Others were on the team, but few played significant minutes.

A scary special teams. Jordan Poyer is eighth in the country in punt return average and brought one back for a touchdown. BYU has been okay so far, but they will need to keep an eye on Poyer in order to stop big plays from happening.

What can we expect from BYU against Oregon State?

A very strong running game. Last week BYU ran the ball 44 times and passed 24 times. This should continue. Between all the backs that get touches they should be able to get a big time of possession advantage. Alisa should get a lot of carries, but expect everyone to get involved. Nelson will keep the defense honest with play-action passes and designed draws. 44 is a lot to run, but this game could be closer to 50 times. BYU will want to keep the Oregon State offense off the field and minimize turnovers and this is how to do it.

Lots of pressure on Mannion. The Beavers offense is young and BYU will want to make sure that Mannion doesn't get comfortable. With Pendleton back, the Cougars should be able to use him and Van Noy to collapse the pocket throughout the game to force some turnovers. Mannion has thrown seven interceptions this season. Lots of throws to the tight ends and McKay Jacobsen. Over the last two games the tight end play has improved dramatically. Part is the game plan and part is them stepping up, with a little miracle powder thrown in. They will be able to get open and either Austin Holt or Marcus Matthews will have a big game. McKay Jacobsen is Nelson's go-to guy. All his deep balls go to Jacobsen, whether that is by design, or comfort he should get a lot of balls coming his way.

Notes and stats:

• BYU has played Oregon State nine times; Oregon State leads 5-4.
• They are 4-4 over their last eight games, with neither team winning more than one in a row.
• The last time these teams played was the 2009 Las Vegas Bowl when BYU won 44-20.
• BYU averages 160.5 yards rushing on the ground in wins and 27 in losses.
• BYU has had four different players lead the team in rushing and five different players lead in receiving yards.
• Oregon State is the only team that both Utah and BYU will play this year.

Conclusion:

BYU will be able to move the ball against this defense. They will put points up and this may be the game that they play a full offensive game. The question will be whether the BYU defense can stop a few big plays from happening. The defense is really great if the offense has to drive, but is prone to big plays. If the Beavers get one or two big plays on offense it will make the game close. Both teams will turn the ball over, since they are both a little sloppy so the turnover battle will be based on who get the best field position out of the turnovers.

This will be the game that Nelson breaks out. He can get 100 yards rushing and 200 yards passing. He could get more, but they will look to run the ball at the end with a small lead. BYU will win the time of possession by at least ten minutes and the Oregon State offense won't get in rhythm.

Prediction: BYU 34 Oregon St. 24

Email: onlinesports@ksl.com

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