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SALT LAKE CITY — “Go big.”
That’s the mantra the University of Utah men’s basketball team hopes to embody in the final stretch of the regular season — a three-game homestead with a lot on the line. It’s a mantra the late Jon Huntsman Sr. used to guide his everyday life, and is now a part of the basketball program he loved.
Each of the final three games comes packed with importance to Utah’s postseason hopes of claiming a top-tier spot in the Pac-12’s final regular season standings. In fact, the Utes are three wins away from earning a second place finish in the conference and claiming a potential NCAA Tournament bid — an improbable feat early in the season.
Early on, few seemed to have faith in the Runnin’ Utes: they were picked to finish seventh in the preseason Pac-12 media poll after losing veteran leadership to graduation and the team’s leading scorer Kyle Kuzma to the NBA.
But head coach Larry Krystkowiak, who is now a strong contender for the Pac-12 Coach of the Year award, ignored the team’s unfavorable season outlook and quietly put together a strong group of players that can contend with anyone in the conference. Most importantly, the team is peaking at the right time as the regular season comes to a close.
On Saturday, Utah closed out its final road series of conference play, sweeping the Washington schools and finishing with four straight victories ahead of a three-game home schedule against UCLA, USC — two teams ahead of them in the standings — and Colorado. Utah also became the only Pac-12 team this season to sweep two road series.
“We could do something special, and we hopefully can do that at home with a home crowd,” assistant coach Tommy Connor told ESPN700. “We need to get that place rocking.”
Utah is considered an NCAA Tournament bubble team this year, according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, who listed the program as part of the “next four out” group. Other bracketology experts have Utah in a similar position: CBS Sports and NBC Sports have Utah part of the “first four out” grouping.
Winning the final three games of the regular season is not a guarantee to get into the tournament, but it would send a stronger message to the NCAA committee. Looking at Utah’s current resume, the team’s average RPI win is No. 153, while the average RPI loss is No. 52. That’s mostly on par with Utah’s recent NCAA Tournament teams.
More importantly, Utah’s record against top 50 teams is 4-6, with Missouri (No. 17) as the team’s best win this season. Wins over both UCLA (47) and USC (42) would give the Utes two extra Top 50 wins — finishing the season with a 6-6 record against the nation’s top programs.
But even a .500 record and six total wins over Top 50 teams is short of Utah’s 2016 tournament team, where their record was 11-7. The difference here is that Utah had more quality wins against top-tier teams despite losing more games.
However, Utah's 2015 tournament team was 3-7 against Top 50 teams. Regardless, it’s better than last season’s NIT team that had a 1-6 record against Top 50 teams.
Utah’s upcoming three games, though, come against three teams they’ve lost to earlier in conference play, while the team was uncharacteristically overwhelmed, outworked and performing poorly overall.
Utah is favored to win their final three games of the season, according to prediction analysis by KenPom, but there is little error for the Utes to slip up. Utah enters each contest with a favorable home court advantage — KenPom sees it as the 35th best in Division I basketball — but two of the three games are expected to be one-possession games.
UCLA and USC are two of the top teams in the Pac-12 in terms of offensive efficiency, scoring on average of more than 110 points in 100 possessions. Utah, though, is right behind them in fourth place (109.5) in the conference in offensive efficiency, so defense becomes key in both matchups.
For Utah to succeed and close out the season strong, the Utes need to continue with what has been working in their four-game win streak: an improved defensive mindset with sound transitions and switching, aggressive play and an overall team-first mentality on both ends of the court.
Points will be important, but it’s how the points are scored that matters most. Krystkowiak has said all season that Utah can’t beat teams with a single superstar talent. Utah wins games by playing as a team in designed sets, and running Krystkowiak’s motion offense which sets up players to take the best open look possible, whether down in the post or deep for a 3-pointer.
In Utah’s most recent wins, assists played heavily into the team’s success. Almost every basket was set up by another player, showcasing teamwork Krystkowiak hopes is present as the team attempts to “go big” and finish the season strong.
Utah returns to the Huntsman Center on Thursday to take on visiting UCLA Bruins at 7 p.m. The game will be broadcast on ESPN in a nationally televised matchup.
Editor's note: The article originally said Utah had a 12-7 record against Top 50 teams in the 2014-15 season. Their record, however, was 3-7.
