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SALT LAKE CITY — For the Runnin’ Utes, the season rests on maintaining consistency. It’s not just one thing, but several aspects of the game that are keeping Utah from likely receiving an NCAA Tournament bid.
Entering its California road trip last week, a vital week for conference standings, Utah was considered a “bubble team” and one that seemed to pass the eye test but had a resume that lacked any wins against top programs. Utah, though, dropped both games in what ended any chances of receiving an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament and making it more difficult for Utah to earn one of the top four spots in the conference standings.
For Utah, myriad issues kept the program from maintaining an already over-achieved season. The culprit: turnovers, free-throw shooting and easing up on defense.
“If we could just put it all together, that’s where we’re at,” Utah assistant coach Andy Hill told ESPN700 following Utah’s 81-75 loss at Stanford Saturday. “We have stretches and moments and things like that, which is teasing, but if we could find a way to just put it all together with the starters and the bench and the defense and taking care of the ball, that’s what every coach is striving for and every team.”
For much of the season, though, Utah has been a team that has been good enough, challenging some of the top programs in the country despite some deficiencies. Even before David Collette and Sedrick Barefield joined the team, Utah kept it close against Butler and Xavier.
In conference play, Utah challenged Arizona on the road and had opportunities to win late in the game, narrowly missed on an opportunity to beat UCLA despite matching the Bruins shot for shot, and kept an efficient Oregon program from pulling away for much of the game.
Hill was right, it was a tease.
But the clear divide in Utah’s wins and losses is a simple formula: turnovers, free-throw shooting and effort on defense. In Utah’s losses in conference play, the team averages 12.6 turnovers and is shooting 59.8 percent from the free-throw line. Additionally, the team has a defensive efficiency of 106.5, which is how many points the team allows per 100 possessions.
Conversely, in Utah’s wins in conference play, Utah is averaging 10.7 turnovers, is shooting it 61.3 percent from the free-throw line and has a defensive efficiency of 93.1.
All these equate to more opportunities for the opponent to score in a loss or at least give the opponent more opportunities to extend its lead. The extra two turnovers equate to anything from one to six points — the exact loss margins against UCLA and Oregon.
“Especially when they score in transition, it’s almost every turnover in this time of year, in Pac-12 play, leads to an easy bucket on the other end, especially on the road,” Hill told ESPN700 following Utah’s double overtime loss to Cal. “Not only do you not get the two or three that you can attempt, or a free throw, you give up a two or three, or a free throw on the other end.”
Additionally, missing free throws, as the name implies, is giving up “free” points, which Utah averages 6.3 missed shots per game or an average of 6 “free” points per game. Although Utah’s free-throw percentage isn’t drastically different in wins versus losses, the team’s free-throw rate, or the percentage of free-throw opportunities in all of Utah’s possessions, is a big difference in a win or loss.
In a Utah win, Utah has an average FT rate of 31.7 percent, which ranks about 275th in the country, but is drastically better than in a Utah loss where the team has an average FT rate of 22.9 percent. Basically, Utah is not getting to the free-throw line enough, but when it does, it's missing too many shots, compounding the problem.
Add to that Utah’s easing up on defense in its losses and it’s easy to see how opponents are able to pull away at the end. In a win, Utah holds opponents to 0.927 points per possession while scoring 1.209 points per possession — a +0.281 point difference for Utah. But in a loss, Utah allows 1.071 points per possession while scoring 0.987 points per possession — a -0.084 differential.
Extending that to defensive efficiencies, as mentioned above, Utah is allowing 13.4 more points per 100 possessions in a loss, while making 21.1 less points. The defense is giving opponents more opportunities to score, while the offense limits itself in turnovers and missed free-throw opportunities.
Compound that to Utah’s drop in shooting percentage in losses and it’s easy to see where Utah struggles. In wins, Utah shoots 56.4 percent, or 62.9 percent in effective field goal percentage, which adds value for made 3-pointers; but in a loss, Utah shoots 46.3 percent, or 51.5 percent in eFG percentage.
Utah head coach Larry Krystkowiak maintains that a good defense is a leading factor to a good offense. So for Utah to cure its ills, it must play better on defense and limit shots.
On the other end of the floor, Utah can start by limiting its turnovers, which forward Tyler Rawson says are mostly unforced turnovers, and give the team more opportunities to score. Turnovers bring chaos and keep the team from having the success it has had at times this season. As coach Hill says: "That’s a big stat that we have control over."
