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Lee Cummard's NBA audition continued last night, and things did not go particularly well at the Portsmouth Invitational.
Cummard was held to 5 points on 2/9 shooting as his Norfolk Sports Club team lost its PIT opener. Throw in the Hershey's All-Star game at last last week's Final Four in Detroit, and Cummard has now shot 2 for 17 (1/6 3pfg) in two postseason games played front of scouts from all 30 NBA teams.
In last night's play-by-play summary, Cummard is reported to have missed three layups, continuing a puzzling late-season trend that saw Cummard miss many close-in opportunities that heretofore had been "gimmes" for the lanky wingman (he had four missed lay-ups in the first half v. Texas A&M in Philadelphia).
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Not to fly a knee-jerk red flag, but Cummard's late-season play might give some NBA decision-makers pause as they evaluate his pro potential. A career 53% shooter (43% from three-point range), Cummard last shot 50% in a game back on February 14th, when he went 6 for 10 and scored 24 points at TCU.
In the ensuing 11 games (including the Final Four all-star game and last night's game at the PIT), Cummard is shooting 33% from the field, and 26% from the arc. Is this significant? Well, Cummard's slight build has naturally led to questions about stamina and durability, and his end-of-the-season swoon could lead one to wonder about his ability to perform consistently against bigger, more physical players over a longer playing season.
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In his sophomore season of 2006-07, Cummard scored in double figures in 12 of his first 27 games, and was averaging 10 points a game at that point. In the final 7 games, he topped ten only twice, and scored six or fewer in five of the last seven games of the season. Averaging 29 minutes per game for the season, he played that many in only two of the final seven games.
He improved in his junior season of 2007-08, when his scoring average was up substantially, topping out at 16.2 points per game through 27 games. In the final eight games, Cummard topped 16 points only twice, but ended the season with 12 consecutive double figure-scoring games. Averaging 31.5 mpg that season, he played that many minutes or more in seven of the final eight games. Cummard also shot the ball exceptionally well down the stretch, so it's tough to identify a late season fade last year.
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I noted Cummard's 26% three-point shooting (9/35) in his last 11 games, and while three-point shooting was one of Cummard's hallmarks through his first three seasons, it wasn't a featured aspect of his game as a senior. With BYU's offense running through Cummard in the post much of the time, he made only 36 of 93 three-point attempts (39%) this past season--this after hitting 40/92 triples as a sophomore and 60/127 three-pointers as a junior.
Cummard last made multiple three-pointers in a game back in Fort Worth on February 14th (2/2 3pfg @ TCU). Since then, he has made one three-pointer in a game nine times, and zero three-pointers twice.
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While recent results have not been encouraging, it's important to remember that Cummard's professional prospects have always been predicated on his all-around game; he's not just a shooter and scorer, he's a good rebounder, a solid assist man, a crafty shot blocker, and a long, active player who is often in the right place at the right time. His value cannot be measured purely by points per game or percentages.
However, there's little doubt that Cummard's reputation as a shooter and finisher has taken a bit of a hit in the last few weeks. It will be up to Cummard to restore that reputation in the remaining Portsmouth games and individual team workouts.
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I remember spending some time with an NBA scout before the BYU/Wake Forest game, and he showed me his list of NBA rosters and his position-by-position breakdown for every NBA team. On this list, he had highlighted all of the NBA shooting guards on current rosters who he thought had LESS ability than Lee Cummard, and the list of highlighted names was lengthy. I have had additional numerous conversations with other NBA scouts--all of whom have raved about Cummard's versatility and fundamental basketball abilities.
Certainly, seasoned NBA personnel people are not going to base their opinions on a handful of exhibition games, or the last few games of a 35-game college season, but Cummard is in a crucial phase of the evaluation process. Unless he finds his "second wind" soon, Cummard's going to find it tough to make a move up the draft ladder in the weeks to come, especially considering the number of underclassmen who have declared for the draft in recent weeks.
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My gut feeling on all of this is that Lee Cummard has gotten tired, and the pressure of feeling he had to "do it all" for a depth-challenged BYU squad sapped much of his energy. After Portsmouth, he will have a short time to re-charge his batteries, then hit the workout circuit to re-state his credentials.
Cummard has pro talent, even without an NBA build. And remember, he doesn't need to be able to play 30 minutes a night in the NBA right away--rather, he would be asked to be a role player, but would be challenged to create his own shot and finish against much bigger, stronger players.
Many draft projections have Cummard among the top 10 shooting guards in the draft--we'll see if or how much that assessment changes in the weeks to come.
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Utah Valley product Ryan Toolson is also playing in Portsmouth, and he had a good night last night, scoring 13 points (5/7 fg, 3/3 3pfg) in 24 minutes as his Norfolk Naval Shipyard team won its opener.
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Cummard's next game will be played at 1:15pm MT this afternoon.
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I note in the latest Sporting News' "Top 100 Picks" list that Austin Collie is a projected 2nd round pick (61st overall; 8th among WR) to the Indianapolis Colts (nice little pic of a one-handed Collie grab on page 17 of the mag, by the way). I suspect Austin could live with second-round money and the chance to catch passes from Peyton Manning...
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