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The Colorado State Rams are better than they were the last time they played BYU, when the Cougars came away with a 26-point win in Fort Collins back on January 10th. But are the Rams improved enough to snap a 9-game Marriott Center losing skid?
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Tim Miles' three-guard, spread-offense, drive attack-oriented scheme has helped the "Horns" to three conference wins since BYU and CSU last met, but the numbers still show the Rams struggling to put it together.
In conference play, CSU is last in fg% def, and next-to-last in scoring defense, scoring margin, 3pfg% defense, assists per game, assist-to-turnover ratio, and 3pfg/gm. Additionally, the Rams are 7th in fg% and scoring offense.
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After play last night (a UNLV home win over TCU), BYU continues to lead the conference in scoring offense, fg%, 3pfg% defense, assists per game and assist-to-turnover ratio. So, in tonight's game, you get the best shooting and scoring team in the league home to the arguably the worst defensive team in the MWC--just one of the reasons BYU is an 18-and-a-half point favorite.
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UNLV's win drops TCU to 4-6 in conference play, and the Horned Frogs' annual swoon is now in full swing--TCU has dropped five consecutive conference games after opening 4-1. TCU, Wyoming and Colorado State will split the 6, 7 and 8 seeds in the conference tournament, with those three teams essentially battling to avoid the "play-in game" with Air Force at the tourney in Las Vegas.
With the "bottom four" teams firmly established, the intrigue at the top of the league league will involve which of the "top five" teams avoid the dreaded 4/5 quarterfinal, since the loser of that game will conceivably lose its shot at the NCAA Tournament.
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SI.com's Seth Davis has a BYU-related note referencing the Cougars one-point loss to Arizona State, and possible Big Dance-related ramifications down the line:
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"A small handful of nonconference games always loom large on Selection Sunday. Exhibit A is BYU's one-point loss to Arizona State on Dec. 20. Remember, that was the game when officials ruled BYU's apparent game-winning basket no good based on what they saw on a replay monitor -- a questionable judgment in my view. If BYU (which is 5-3 in the Mountain West, 17-5 overall) fails to earn an at-large bid, that game could be the difference."
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Parenthetically, of the three officials involved in that controversial video review, one has since officiated a game involving the Cougars; BYU-ASU lead referee Bobby McRoy was an umpire for the BYU-SDSU game on January 24th. In that game, McRoy made the crucial over-and-back call against the Aztecs' Richie Williams that helped the Cougars secure a 6-point win.
Tonight, a second official from the BYU-ASU game has his first encounter with the Cougars since "Videogate"--Kevin Brill is on the crew for BYU v. Colorado State. In the aftermath of the Cougars-Sun Devils game, Brill notably said the video review was the "toughest call" of his college officiating career.
The third official in Glendale--Frank Harvey III--has yet to see the Cougars since the BYU-ASU game.
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Seth Davis also had this, as it relates to UNLV's Dance chances:
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"UNLV is going to be another tough call for the Selection Committee. Yes, the Rebels have solid nonconference wins over Arizona and Louisville and they won at BYU, but they're also sitting at 5-4 in the Mountain West. I've seen some bracket projections showing this conference getting four teams in, but I think there's a better chance they'll get two than four. Keep in mind that the Mountain West Conference tournament is played every year in Las Vegas. That isn't fair from a competitive standpoint, but I guess it's what's best for the league."
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