The state of the economy is top of mind for many Americans. A poll from the Economist/You Gov found 53% of Americans think the economy is getting worse, 21% say it's improving and 19% say it seems to be the same.
It's easy to sit back and speculate on why the economy is the way it is and what can be done to fix it. But there are many elements that shape today's economic landscape.
At a Utah Valley Chamber of Commerce presentation, Robert Spendlove, senior economist for Zion's Bank, spoke about some of the elements influencing today's economy. Here are a few key takeaways.
Consumer sentiment is lower, but consumer spending continues
Consumer sentiment is one of those economic terms that sounds complicated, but is actually just a way of understanding how people feel.
Daniel Liberto, writing for Investopedia, explains, "Consumer sentiment measures how confident people feel about their financial situation and the broader economy, making it a gauge of economic health."
In Utah, consumer sentiment is drastically different from the national number. According to data from Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, the national consumer sentiment was 56.4 in January 2026. Utah's consumer sentiment was 80.6—a suprisingly higher figure.
Spendlove reports that Utah consumer sentiment took a small downturn in February but remains more than 20 points higher than the national measurement. However, he says consumer spending is still holding up.
Federal interest rates throughout the years and what's to come
Federal interest rates might not go down in a way consumers hope, Spendlove explains. To better understand why rates are where they are, he shares a small history lesson.
Just before the Great Recession in late 2007, interest rates were about 5.3%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. They sharply plummeted about one year later in 2008.
Spendlove says the rates stayed just above 0% for several years to try and stimulate the economy's recovery. During this period of time, businesses and Americans got used to near-zero interest rates. Financial markets structured investments around that rate.
When the pandemic hit in 2020, the interest rates again plummeted. In April 2020, the rate dropped to 0.05% and stayed below 1% until June 2022. Spendlove explains the Fed raised the rates to help fight increasing inflation.
In August 2023, the rate reached the highest it's been since before the Great Recession — 5.33%. In the last two years, the Fed has lowered the rate nearly 2%.
But people shouldn't expect it to reach those pandemic levels, even if they're hoping for or waiting for it, Spendlove warns. Based on the Federal Funds Forecast, those on the Federal Open Market Committee expect to keep the rates around 3.4-3.1% over the next couple of years.
Inflation and tariffs aren't explicitly related
It's easy to assume that tariffs are causing higher prices of goods because someone, whether it's the consumer, seller, or manufacturer, is paying more. Naturally, many people assume this adds to already painful inflation rates. However, Spendlove says the data isn't there to support the theory.
"We were all told that the tariffs were going to cause inflation, and I'll just tell you, there's not proof of that. The data is not bearing that out," Spendlove says. In fact, inflation rates have actually gone down recently.
But the higher costs of goods isn't imaginary. Over the last six years, the cost of goods in the U.S. has risen more than 26%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Utah's labor market is still growing — but slowing
Reports from the Utah Department of Workforce Services show Utah's labor market continues to show growth and resilience at a higher rate than the U.S. as a whole. In the third quarter of 2025, Utah's growth rate was 1.5% while the nation's was 0.8%.
Many factors go into the health of a labor market, including unemployment, layoffs, job growth, and wages. So while the unemployment rate was 3.6% in December, a half-percentage point increase from April, layoffs were low and jobs were growing, according to the Department of Workforce Services.
9 fun Utah Valley spots where you can escape the winter cold
Utah Valley offers plenty of activities that don't depend on the weather or even a heavy coat. In fact, some destinations require nothing more than a swimsuit. When winter cold has you tempted to stay inside, these local spots might be just enough to coax you out the door.Intermountain region remains resilient and strong
Despite national trends and fears, Utah's economy remains strong. A 2026 WalletHub ranking of states with the best economies lists Utah as No. 2 in the nation, following Massachusetts.
Factors like Utah's healthy labor market, low unemployment rates, and average income increase put the Beehive State toward the top of the list.
Spendlove also credits Utah with high population growth and steady (but slow) job growth. Though there's still an issue of housing availability and affordability, he says Utah is generally in a good economic position.
Discover more economic and business insights
Utah Valley Chamber of Commerce values giving a voice to local business leaders. To learn more about leadership, business, and how current issues affect Utahns, check out Utah Valley Chamber's resources. From leadership summits and master classes to Chamber Chat interviews, they offer insights and education for those looking to grow their businesses.
Check out the Utah Valley Chamber website to learn more.
