Welcome the Hotline's weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the top games nationally and the most intriguing matchups across the West. Last week, we were 3-5-1. Lines are courtesy of vegasinsider.com. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren't.
We won't insist on it, but the Hotline would appreciate greatly if Washington State could reveal its true identity this weekend.
Not the defense, necessarily. We've seen enough from that unit to conclude it's reasonably stout.
But is WSU's offense more comparable to the anemic version on display in the season opener against Idaho or to the productive, efficient version that took the field last weekend against San Diego State?
Because a unit that produces one touchdown and three yards rushing — three! — in a narrow victory over an FCS opponent will doom the first year of the Jimmy Rogers era.
But a unit that generates four touchdowns and 396 yards in a lopsided victory over a Mountain West opponent packs enough punch to potentially send the Cougars into the postseason.
Those are two very different endgames for WSU.
And those were two very different performances.
The lack of early-season clarity makes sense given how many parts are new in Pullman: head coach, offensive coordinator, playbook, quarterback, skill position talent, offensive line — all of it, really.
But time is running short for the Cougars (2-0), for their bowl math could get quite difficult very quickly.
North Texas appears to be a mid-level team from the American that should provide a stern but not insurmountable test. Starting next week, everything changes.
The Cougars host Washington and visit both Virginia and Mississippi — three Power Four conference opponents in a four-game span. The only respite in that stretch is a road game at altitude (Colorado State).
Win this week, and a 3-0 record entering the meat of the season offers just enough margin for error.
Lose this week, and the ascent to the six wins required for a bowl bid starts to look daunting.
And the outcome Saturday afternoon hinges on — allow us to close the circle — the Cougars mustering the requisite yards and touchdowns. Because they cannot rely on the defense to limit North Texas the way it limited Idaho and SDSU.
The Mean Green are averaging 42 points through two games with a freshman quarterback (Drew Mestemaker) and a balanced offense. Their head coach, Eric Morris, has deep ties to Washington State as a former assistant under both Mike Leach and Jake Dickert.
Morris lured Cam Ward to Pullman and recruited John Mateer, too. He knows quarterbacks, and he knows offense.
The question Saturday is which version he'll see from the Cougars.
To the picks …
Season record: 6-12-1
Games involving FCS teams not included
All times Pacific
Colorado (+6) at Houston
Kickoff: Friday at 4:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: There's plenty of focus on CU's quarterback situation — will Ryan Staub vault from third string to starter, as ESPN reported? — but we don't think Deion Sanders' decision will matter much. Houston is better. Better than the Buffaloes and better than most college football media chroniclers believe. The Hotline sees coach Willie Fritz's team as a Big 12 contender. Pick: Houston
Kansas State (-1.5) at Arizona
Kickoff: Friday at 6 p.m. on Fox
Comment: It's only Week 3, and this is being counted as a nonconference game, but it's huge for both teams. Is two-loss Kansas State headed for a disappointing season? Is Arizona destined for a bounce-back year? The matchup will have all the intensity of a conference game played in November, especially with the home team out to avenge a loss in Manhattan last season. Kansas State is on the road with a short week after dealing with Army's triple option. Not ideal. Pick: Arizona
New Mexico (+16.5) at UCLA
Kickoff: Friday at 7 p.m. on Big Ten Network
Comment: UCLA's season essentially hangs in the balance after losses to Utah and UNLV. The visitors won't be intimidated one bit: They have already faced a Big Ten team on the road, having lost at Michigan by 17. Lobos coach Jason Eck will provide the Bruins with all they can handle and more. Pick: New Mexico
Oregon (-27.5) at Northwestern
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Fox
Comment: The Ducks' first road game will have a neutral-site feel with the Wildcats playing in a temporary, 12,000-seat facility on Lake Michigan while their new stadium is built. Tough to imagine Northwestern, which lost by 20 at Tulane in Week 1, offering much resistance after halftime. The line is tantalizing, with 27.5 a notably better number than straight 28. Pick: Oregon
Washington State (+6) at North Texas
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ESPNU
Comment: The Cougars need first downs early and often to keep their defense off the field. While the weather has been perfect in Pullman this week, the heat index Saturday afternoon in DATCU Stadium should soar past 90 degrees. It's not difficult to envision WSU's front seven wearing down in the fourth quarter if the Mean Green lean into their ground game. Pick: North Texas
Oregon State (+23.5) at Texas Tech
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Fox
Comment: All the attention on Trent Bray's use of an expletive during his halftime interview in the loss to Fresno State has taken some focus off the Beavers' woeful performance on special teams and their wobbly run defense. Add a gigantic uptick in competition — the Red Raiders might be the best team in the Big 12 — and this has the ingredients for a wipeout. Pick: Texas Tech
USC (-21) at Purdue
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS
Comment: Much like Oregon, the Trojans now hit the road after two home blowouts and open conference play against a lower-tier opponent. Purdue doesn't have the personnel to keep pace for four quarters, but it does have the coaching acumen, courtesy of Barry Odom, to make this closer than it should be. Pick: Purdue
Texas A&M (+7) at Notre Dame
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Comment: One of the top national games of the day is a must-win for the Irish after their loss at Miami. The Aggies are 2-0 after thumping second-tier opponents, and veteran quarterback Marcel Reed has been sharp. If this is half as compelling as Notre Dame's 10-point win last season in College Station, it will be terrific theatre. Our view: Close early, not close in the final minutes. Pick: Notre Dame
Utah (-23.5) at Wyoming
Kickoff: 5 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Comment: War Memorial Stadium in Laramie is a sneaky-tough venue — the Cowboys gave Brigham Young all it could handle last season — but the Utes have a schematic edge: play-caller Jason Beck's offense gained 576 yards and scored 45 points against Wyoming last year during his tenure on the New Mexico staff, but the Lobos lost the game because of their non-existent defense. Beck is running a similar offense this fall with the Utes, and they most definitely have a defense. Pick: Utah
Texas State (+15.5) at Arizona State
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on TNT
Comment: The line has ticked up from 14 and feels high, for two reasons: The Bobcats played ASU to a three-point game early last season in San Marcos — they actually out-gained the Sun Devils — and will have zero fear of the opponent or the moment; also, the Hotline isn't fully confident in ASU's mindset following the gut-punch loss at Mississippi State last weekend. Pick: Texas State
Minnesota (-1.5) at Cal
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: A tipping point game for Cal — with a victory, the Bears would have an open road to four nonconference wins and be well positioned for their best season in years. How will rookie quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele fare against the best defense he has faced thus far? The same question should be asked of Minnesota freshman Drake Lindsey. Good chance this comes down to a last-minute field goal. Pick: Cal
Boston College (-12.5) at Stanford
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ACC Network
Comment: We have not ruled out the possibility that Stanford is the worst Power Four team in the country. In fact, the evidence is mounting. (The race to the bottom includes Oklahoma State.) In this case, the Cardinal are a double-digit home underdog against a ho-hum ACC program that lost on the road in overtime last weekend (at Michigan State) and must now make a cross-country trip. That's a tough ask of the Eagles, and yet ... Pick: Boston College
Straight-up winners: Houston, Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, North Texas, Texas Tech, USC, Notre Dame, Utah, Arizona State, Cal, Boston College
Five-star special: New Mexico. The Lobos were within 10 points of Michigan at the end of three quarters in the Big House. They can hang with UCLA for all four in a Rose Bowl that will be two-thirds empty.
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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
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