Estimated read time: 7-8 minutes
By all reliable metrics, the Pac-12 has been an indisputably mediocre conference for the past five years.
In a possibly related note, three-quarters of the head coaches have been on the job for at least five seasons.
For reasons that are both legitimate and stupefying, the university presidents and athletic directors responsible for the basketball programs have opted to stick with coaches who are clearly stuck in the muck.
The schools either can't afford to make changes or don't care enough to make changes. Either way, their collective negligence has led to the current state of affairs in which the Pac-12 places a paltry three or four teams in the NCAA Tournament on an annual basis.
That said, we expect a busy spring. At least four coaches are on fragile ground and at least one more is hurtling toward retirement.
Our examination is below.
(Note: Compensation figures are approximate and taken from published reports, including USA Today's salary database.)
Arizona's Tommy Lloyd
Contract: $4 million (signed through 2026-27)
Comment: Lloyd's record in the regular season and conference tournament through two-and-a-half years in Tucson is a stellar 75-14. His record in the NCAA Tournament is merely 2-2, with a first-round flameout as the No. 2 seed. If the Wildcats exit early this March, there could be real pressure on Lloyd in the spring of 2025.
Chance of vacancy: 2%. We'll assign half that amount to the never-say-never component inherent in the coaching business and half to the likelihood of Mark Few leaving Gonzaga and Lloyd returning home. Otherwise, Lloyd's seat is as cool as they come.
Arizona State's Bobby Hurley
Contract: $2.6 million (signed through 2025-26)
Comment: Hurley quieted many critics last season when he led the Sun Devils to 23 wins and their third NCAA berth of his tenure. But the chirping has returned in Year 9 and is growing louder as ASU plunges into a multi-week losing streak that includes a lopsided home loss to Cal.
Chance of vacancy: 20%. The Sun Devils remain without a permanent athletic director, which complicates an accurate assessment of Hurley's situation. But from here, it's clear his survival odds have taken a slight turn for the worse in recent months.
Cal's Mark Madsen
Contract: $2.1 million
Comment: The first-year coach has done superb work in lifting the Bears from the Pac-12 gutter to the realm of the respectable. After two ill-advised hires (Wyking Jones and Mark Fox) set the program back decades, the Bears finally have their man.
Chance of vacancy: 5%. But can they keep their man? If Cal plays as well over the next month as it has over the past month, Madsen's market value will soar. That said, his contract includes a $5 million buyout — a steep price, even for his alma mater across the Bay.
Colorado's Tad Boyle
Contract: $2.5 million (signed through 2026-27)
Comment: Boyle's 14th team in Boulder is one of his most talented, with both the Pac-12 title and an NCAA berth in sight. (CU is squarely on the bubble.) And his staying power is such that he likely will steer Colorado into a new conference for the second time: the Pac-12 in 2011, and the Big 12 in 2024.
Chance of vacancy: 0.1%. The Colorado native just turned 61, so we don't see Boyle leaving Boulder for another gig. But given his age and the demands of the job — not the Big 12 move so much as the NIL and transfer portal headaches — we cannot completely ignore the possibility of retirement.
Oregon's Dana Altman
Contract: $4 million (signed through 2027-28)
Comment: The Ducks have returned to a familiar place (contention for the conference title) after two subpar years, but their NCAA Tournament position isn't nearly as strong. Would a third consecutive empty spring prompt the 65-year-old to consider retirement? This much is certain: Whenever he departs, it will be on his own terms.
Chance of vacancy: 45%. We wonder about Altman's enthusiasm for schlepping from Eugene to Big Ten campuses next season and his overall enjoyment of a profession that has changed drastically in the past few years.
Oregon State's Wayne Tinkle
Contract: $2.7 million (signed through 2026-27)
Comment: Despite the recent upset of Arizona, the Beavers have not materially altered their position. Barring an unexpected run through March (comparable to the 2021 miracle), they will end the 2024 season the way they have ended so many seasons.
Chance of vacancy: 25%. Tinkle is midway through the huge extension he signed following OSU's run to the Elite Eight. But his buyout reportedly drops from $1.5 million to $750,000 this spring — a manageable figure for the Beavers, despite the conference chaos and looming revenue hit.
Stanford's Jerrod Haase
Contract: Terms not disclosed
Comment: Haase has yet to lead the Cardinal into the NCAA Tournament, a stretch of mediocrity that began in the spring of 2017 and wouldn't be tolerated anywhere else. The trajectory won't change this year unless Stanford wins the Pac-12 title — the at-large path into March has been blocked for weeks.
Chance of vacancy: 33%. Stanford athletic director Bernard Muir has stuck by his hire through one lost season after another for a program that was once a jewel of the West Coast. We'll believe a change is coming when we see it.
UCLA's Mick Cronin
Contract: $4.1 million (signed through 2027-28)
Comment: The Bruins are emerging from a woeful stretch that ended just early enough for them to build momentum for March and a possible run through the Pac-12 tournament.
Chance of vacancy: 10%. Cronin says he's committed to UCLA, and we believe him … to a point. After all, every coach is committed to his employer until a better offer comes along — an offer, perhaps, from an ACC school not far from his hometown of Cincinnati.
USC's Andy Enfield
Contract: Terms not disclosed
Comment: Thanks to three consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances, Enfield has developed a stellar credit line that should fortify him against any internal blowback resulting from what has become an immensely disappointing season. Generally speaking, he has elevated the program to unprecedented success.
Chance of vacancy: 15%. We have always considered the possibility that Enfield, who grew up in Pennsylvania, will jump to a basketball school on the East Coast. That said, USC's struggles this season could undermine his market value.
Utah's Craig Smith
Contract: $2.1 million (signed through 2026-27)
Comment: The Utes are one of the most improved teams in the conference and contending for an NCAA berth in Smith's third season — a development that could not have been scripted any better. Whether they qualify for the field of 68 or not, the broader outlook is positive.
Chance of vacancy: 1%. Utah has found the sweet spot, at least this season: Enough success to generate momentum but not so much that Smith becomes ultra-attractive to any bluebloods in the market for a new coach.
Washington's Mike Hopkins
Contract: $3.1 million (signed through 2024-25)
Comment: No coach in the Pac-12 entered this season with a hotter seat than Hopkins, and his position remains tenuous three months later: The Huskies are below .500 in conference play and just lost at home to WSU.
Chance of vacancy: 60%. Hopkins' buyout is significant (reportedly $3 million) but so is the cost of keeping a coach who cannot extricate his program from its multi-year tailspin. Add a new athletic director (Troy Dannen) and the looming conference change, and it's increasingly easy to envision a dismissal on Montlake.
WSU's Kyle Smith
Contract: $1.5 million (signed through 2026-27)
Comment: The good news is the bad news for WSU, the hottest team in the conference and a contender for the NCAAs: Smith's success increases his market value and the potential for a school with deeper pockets to lure him away this spring.
Chance of vacancy: 25%. And so we wonder: Are the Cougars better off making the NCAAs for the first time since 2008, even if it means losing Smith, or missing the NCAAs and keeping their top-notch coach? Against the unique backdrop (i.e., realignment tumult), we lean to the latter scenario.
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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
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