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PROVO — Since joining the Western Athletic Conference 62 years ago, the BYU men's basketball program has finished with a losing conference record in only 12 seasons.
In each of those instances, ranging from the first in 1968 to the most recent last year, the Cougars struggled all season and didn't participate in any postseason tournament.
At 2-3 in the Big 12, going into Tuesday night's game against fourth-ranked Houston, BYU (14-4) most likely won't come close to finishing below .500 overall but could end up with a losing record in college basketball's toughest conference.
And yet, if it happens, the Cougars will probably still make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in three years. The fact is, Big 12 history shows teams have lost as many as 11 conference games and still been rewarded with an at-large berth.
Thanks to a strong nonconference record, highlighted by wins over San Diego State and current Pac-12 co-leader Arizona State, the Cougars require only moderate success in the Big 12. In addition to Houston, other ranked opponents include No. 7 Kansas, No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 15 Baylor and No. 23 Iowa State.
Tuesday night's Houston game marks the first time in school history BYU has played three consecutive ranked opponents. Last week, BYU beat Iowa State and then lost to No. 25 Texas Tech.
Three Big 12 teams over the last two years finished with losing conference records yet made the NCAA Tournament. In each of the last two seasons, Iowa State and West Virginia were each 7-11 and got in. West Virginia earned a No. 9 seed last year, meaning it didn't have go to Dayton, Ohio, for a play-in game.
The Big 12, which ESPN analyst Jay Bilas calls an "unforgiving league this year" regularly gets at least six teams in the tournament.
"If you go 7-11 or 8-10 in a year where your nonconference schedule is solid, you're going to be in the NCAA Tournament," ESPN analyst Fran Fraschilla said in an interview on The Zone. "West Virginia proved that last year, and other teams have done it in the past. It's not just 9-9, 7-11 and 8-8 with the right wins gets you in the tournament because of how strong this league has been over the last decade."
Fraschilla, who competed against BYU in the Mountain West as the coach at New Mexico, describes conference play as "hand-to-hand combat." Oklahoma State, which plays BYU in a home-and-home series this season, at 0-5 in conference play looks like the only overmatched team.
Perennially a national power, Kansas has already lost to Central Florida and West Virginia this season. Houston, which was ranked No. 2 in the country earlier this season, went 16-0 in the nonconference but started Big 12 play at 1-2.
"You just can't count on anything in the league because everybody is capable of beating everybody on a given night," Fraschilla said. "It's just the way it is."
Before calling last week's loss at Texas Tech, Fraschilla believes BYU can compete in the Big 12 for the foreseeable future. He points out the religious affiliation the school routinely draws connects with top Latter-day Saint recruits, citing the return off a mission next year of talented guard Collin Chandler.
At the same time, the advent of players getting paid through name, image and likeness has dramatically changed college sports. BYU lost a player over the summer to NIL-related issues.
"College basketball in general, it's a new normal," Fraschilla said. "I said this two or three years ago to my coaching friends, if you don't embrace this new normal and realize that you're going to be recruiting year to year, and that many of these relationships are just transactional and not transformational, you're going to be left by the wayside.
"I think that's where BYU may have an advantage, because I do think they can build a foundation and a basketball culture that could transcend what we're going through right now. It's going to be interesting to see how they navigate it."
