Estimated read time: 5-6 minutes
LAS VEGAS — After back-to-back Pac-12 titles, Utah's 2023 season came up short of expectations as they finished with an 8-4 regular season record and earned an invite to the pre-Christmas SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl.
The program faced an unprecedented run of injuries — some 30+ players from the two-deep missed time, according to KSL.com's Josh Furlong — so their "next man up" mentality to grind out eight wins was a feat itself.
While there was no three-peat in the final Pac-12 season, Utah fans should be proud of the way the staff and players responded to so much adversity to their stars, starters, and key reserve players all season.
The 2023 Utah team gets one final game together as they appear in their seventh Las Vegas Bowl in program history. The Utes have a 5-1 record in the bowl game, with their most recent appearance being a win over BYU in 2015. Utah draws a 7-5 Northwestern team who surprised everybody by overcoming a summer head coach firing and surging from last place to bowl season (5:30 p.m. MST, ABC).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2020-22): Utah 66.9 (6th) | Northwestern 39.3 (59th of 69 Power Five)
2022 season: Utah 69.2 (10th) | Northwestern 26.0 (65th of 69 Power Five)
2023 season: Utah 54.2 (28th) | Northwestern 44.1 (46th of 69 Power Five)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. Utah stacked another national top-10 finish last year; and thanks to the high amount of returning production, program-record recruiting classes, and proven coaching staff, they earned a No. 8 rank in my 2023 preseason magazine.
Utah rose two spots to No. 28 in my Power Five Game Grader after the Colorado win brought the Utes to 8-4.
Northwestern coach David Braun deserves all the coach of the year attention that he is receiving — and then some. Last year, Northwestern was 1-11 and lost all 11 games after the Ireland opener.
Their offense averaged just 5 points per game in November, they lost most star players in the offseason, and then fired longtime head coach Pat Fitzgerald in July right before preseason fall camp. Northwestern was the consensus pick to finish last in the Big Ten West and was projected to finish in the bottom five nationally again.
Braun provided a spark and guided the program to surprising win after surprising win. The Vegas spreads couldn't catch up to Northwestern as they closed on a 6-0 record against the spread.
The Wildcats check in at 46th in 2023 Game Grader, which far exceeds any preseason expectations.
Northwestern with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Northwestern offense: 58th of 69 Power Five (overall), 31st passing, 64th rushing
Utah defense: 15th of 69 Power Five (overall), 16th passing, 7th rushing
Utah has battled injuries all season and still managed to lock in a top-15 defense in my opponent-adjusted, per-play metrics. That run of injuries hit a breaking point in the penultimate game against Arizona, and the list of missing players is even bigger for the bowl game.
Safety Cole Bishop and two-way safety-running backSione Vaki have both declared for the NFL, starting corner JaTravis Broughton has entered the transfer portal, and three more starters are knocked out with season-ending injuries: Jonah Elliss, Logan Fano, and Lander Barton.
Head coach Kyle Whittingham said there may be even more scratches, based off the timing of when the players make their decisions and announcements.
"We have so many guys in so many different situations … I can't keep track of it," Whittingham said.
Northwestern made significant gains in the passing game, rising to an above-average No. 31 rank after consecutive years in the bottom five. Quarterback Ben Bryant put up 224 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and added one on the ground to help pace Northwestern past rival Illinois 45-43 in their final game.
There are no expected opt-outs or roster scratches from the offense at this time.
Utah with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Utah offense (2023): 63rd of 69 Power Five (overall), 61st passing, 39th rushing
Northwestern defense (2023): 50th of 69 Power Five (overall), 62nd passing, 48th rushing
A major part of the logic in predicting Utah to return to the Pac-12 title was the strong quarterback play of Cam Rising and the All-America caliber tight end Brant Kuithe. Neither played a single snap in 2023.
So a projected strength flipped to a major weakness, and Utah's passing game never got going. They fell to the bottom 10 of my opponent-adjusted passing metrics, which ended up sinking the overall offense also into the bottom 10.
Quarterback Bryson Barnes expects to play in this bowl game despite publicly announcing his intent to transfer. The next man up Nate Johnson is also transferring and is already gone, so Utah remains extra thin at quarterback.
Utah also loses do-it-all Vaki and leading receiver Devaughn Vele, who are both skipping the bowl game for the NFL draft. The second-best receiver, Mikey Matthews, is also gone to the transfer portal. The starting offensive lineup in the bowl game is nowhere near what anybody expected to see just a few short months ago.
Game prediction
Utah closed out its Pac-12 era in style, winning two of the final three league titles in the century-old West Coast icon. Whittingham has established a proven program built on toughness and player development; and given their recent uptick in high school recruiting and the transfer portal, they are well-positioned to contend in the new 16-team Big 12.
Regardless of outcome, this bowl game with a skeleton roster is no referendum on the Utah program. I am excited to see them compete in a wide-open Big 12 — especially in an expanded playoff era that rewards the conference champion an auto bid and home playoff game.
Look for Utah to grind out a close win Saturday before shifting the focus to 2024.
Utah 21 | Northwestern 13
