Top-25 Cougs? BYU basketball has 'a chance to prove' itself in Las Vegas

PROVO — Take what you will from early season results and the first two weeks of a college basketball campaign that stretches from November to March, but one conclusion seems plausible: BYU men's basketball is better than it was last year.

The first four games of the 2023-24 season have been good to the Cougars, who currently rank No. 14 in KenPom's predictive metrics and are receiving votes in the Associated Press Top 25 after a 4-0 start. But just how good are the Cougars?

BYU (4-0) ranks 21st nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and 14th in adjusted defense after wins that included then-No. 17 San Diego State (currently 20th in KenPom) and blowout victories over Houston Christian (358), Southeastern Louisiana (218) and Morgan State (351).

Picked to finish 13th out of 14 teams in the Big 12, the season is about to get a lot more difficult. Eventually, the Cougars will prove one of two things false about their current standing: either they aren't the No. 13 team in the Big 12, or they aren't the 14th-best team in college basketball. Time has a way of adjusting to the mean, especially against a schedule like the one BYU faces in conference play.

The increased load begins Thursday (10 p.m. MST, ESPN2) against soon-to-be Big 12 foe Arizona State (92 in KenPom), followed by a game against either North Carolina State (52) or Vanderbilt (138). But there's plenty to like about coach Mark Pope's team that brought back most of last year's experience, added wing Trevin Knell from a season-long shoulder injury, and still hasn't played with a full-strength complement of newcomers in Aly Khalifa (Charlotte), Dawson Baker (UC Irvine) or four-star freshman Marcus Adams Jr.

"I think we're good, and we're figuring out who we are; now we'll figure more out with our game on Thursday," Pope said before practice Tuesday afternoon at the Marriott Center Annex. "I have a lot of faith in this group, but we still have a ton of growing to do. We have so many more experiences to experience together and learn from, but … I feel like we have a little bit of a sense of who we are and who we want to be. We're really excited to go get a chance to prove if we're a good team."

Even beyond Vegas, the road is about to get a lot more difficult. After four-straight home games, BYU will be in the Marriott Center for just one of the next five games. That includes a neutral-site tipoff against Fresno State next Friday, Dec. 1 at the Delta Center and a trip to in-state rival Utah on Saturday, Dec. 9.

For all the praise of KenPom metrics, the Cougars are only the fifth-highest rated team from the Big 12 in the predictive metric, and one of 11 teams from the conference in the top-50. Their adjusted strength of schedule rates just 337th nationally — though that, again, is also projected to change in a big way once Big 12 play arrives.

So for now, the focus is on the Sun Devils, who will be without center Shawn Phillips, a 7-foot transfer from LSU who will miss "significant time" with a foot injury, ASU coach Bobby Hurley told Arizona media Tuesday. Win that game, and the 138 votes received in the most recent AP Top 25 — unofficially the No. 27 team in the country — may become much more, perhaps even the first AP ranking since the 2021-22 season.

Enjoy the wins while they come, right? This team will.

"I don't think I've ever played on a team that has been so invested in each other's success," said BYU guard Richie Saunders, the 58% shooter from Wasatch Academy averaging 10.5 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game off the bench. "There are going to be things that happen in the season; it's a long season. But I love that we are together, and I have no other expectation than being together."

This is a team, after all, whose entire starting five for the first four games — Trey Stewart, Spencer Johnson, Noah Waterman, Fousseyni Traore and Knell, the team's unofficial "shot doctor" a year ago — was with the program a year ago.

That year proved tough, with a 19-15 record and 7-9 mark in the Cougars' final year in the West Coast Conference. It was just the second time since 2005 that BYU basketball failed to reach the 20-win plateau.

But it also led to a lot of learning, and some offseason soul-searching.

"Last year was a hard year, a big learning year," Saunders said. "I also think our Croatia-Italy trip helped, too; it was fun to see other people in a different light and off the court a little bit more."

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