Pac-12 football: Our inaugural coaching Hot Seat breakdown of the 2023 hiring cycle

The 2023 coaching carousel has started to spin and should reach full speed within weeks as schools act before the transfer portal opens in early December and recruiting peaks with National Signing Day in the middle of the month.

In the Pac-12 footprint, changes in conference affiliation could impact decisions, as well.

Welcome to the Hotline's inaugural Hot Seat ratings of the 2023 hiring cycle, in which we assess the status of each school's head coach from two angles: The likelihood of a school-initiated dismissal; and the chances of a voluntary departure.

The ratings will be updated regularly until the carousel stops spinning. When that will be, we cannot guess.

(Note: Compensation figures taken from USA Today's invaluable salary database.)

Here we go …

Arizona

Coach: Jeff Fisch (third season)

Seat heat: Sub-zero

Nitty gritty: Fisch has worked wonders in Tucson, turning a 1-11 team (in 2021) into a contender for the Pac-12 championship. His use of the transfer portal, combined with sound recruiting, has upgraded Arizona's play at the line of scrimmage to a level not seen in a decade.

Chance of vacancy: 33%

Comment: Fisch is due a significant raise from his current salary of $3.25 annually, but his future in Tucson hinges on offers from other schools: He stands to be one of the hottest coaches on the market and could be lured away to a campus that prioritizes football. The sample size is small with only one winning season — this season — on his resume. For that reason, we don't see Fisch as a candidate for vacancies with the bluest of bluebloods. But there could be numerous openings at the light-blue level that offer Fisch resources he doesn't have in Tucson.

Arizona State

Coach: Kenny Dillingham (first season)

Seat heat: Nonexistent

Nitty gritty: We have been impressed with Dillingham's work under extraordinarily difficult circumstances. Battered by injuries and without a bowl berth available, the Sun Devils (3-7) are nonetheless a few plays away from a .500 record. ASU fans have nothing to complain about, at least with regard to the performance of the coaching staff.

Chance of vacancy: 0%

Comment: Dillingham's deep ties to the school — he grew up in Phoenix and attended ASU — add a layer of stability that other programs don't have. We won't call him an ASU lifer just yet, but it's easy to envision Dillingham coaching in Tempe for a decade or more. Only an alum would endure the administrative missteps and wait out the NCAA sanctions with an unwavering commitment to the program.

Cal

Coach: Justin Wilcox (seventh season)

Seat heat: Warm … and getting warmer

Nitty gritty: After a rough stretch through the middle of the season, Wilcox has a terrific opportunity to cool his seat: The Bears are two wins from bowl eligibility and have winnable games remaining (at Stanford and UCLA). His program has undergone an identity shift: Cal no longer plays ironclad defense, but the offense has improved substantially — and it's far better to be entertaining than boring, especially if you aren't winning regularly.

Chance of vacancy: 10%

Comment: Despite the ongoing mediocrity in Berkeley, we don't envision the Bears making a change. Chancellor Carol Christ is retiring, athletic director Jim Knowlton has other issues on his plate and the athletic department can't afford to change coaching staffs. (Wilcox earned $4.4 million this season and has four years remaining on his deal.) Also, we suspect the school wants stability atop the program as it navigates the transition to the ACC. But next year will be critical for Wilcox.

Colorado

Coach: Deion Sanders (first season)

Seat heat: Same as frozen nitrogen (-346 degrees)

Nitty gritty: The Sanders Experience has been a phenomenal success for Colorado despite the mid-season collapse — it stands as an example of the influence a premier football coach can have on the university writ large. Clearly, Sanders is serious about his craft.

Chance of vacancy: 5%

Comment: Sanders' name has already been linked to the Texas A&M vacancy, and there will be more rumors in coming weeks — nobody believes he's committed to Boulder for the long haul. We don't claim to know whether Sanders wants to coach in the NFL or has his sights set on a college blueblood. (Texas A&M is definitely not a blueblood.) But he doesn't need the money, his son (Shedeur) has another year of eligibility and CU's roster will only get better in 2024. In other words: Why leave now? His stock is not close to its peak. That said, if a premier job becomes available, we'll adjust this assessment.

Oregon

Coach: Dan Lanning (second season)

Seat heat: Ice cold

Nitty gritty: The Ducks are in the playoff chase, Lanning appears content in Eugene and his bank account is lined with gold. Following a 10-win debut season, Lanning received a contract extension that pays $8 million this year (including deferred compensation) and features $200,000 annual bumps up to $9 million. However, we should note that he's 0-3 against Washington and Oregon State, so things could get interesting in the next few weeks.

Chance of vacancy: 0.1%

Comment: Lanning offered a master-class response to speculation linking him to the Texas A&M vacancy, saying "There's zero chance I will be coaching somewhere else." And we believe him — to a point. You can count on one hand the number of schools that could lure Lanning away, with Georgia and Alabama atop the list. But there is no indication either job will open this winter.

Oregon State

Coach: Jonathan Smith (sixth season)

Seat heat: Cold as OSU's relationship with Oregon

Nitty gritty: Few coaches anywhere in college football can match Smith's work in Corvallis, where the Beavers have won 18 games in the past two seasons and are playing for a berth in the conference championship. His use of the transfer portal, shrewd recruiting evaluations and masterful staff hires have fueled OSU's surge.

Chance of vacancy: 33%

Comment: Smith's situation is more complicated than most. He received a new six-year contract last winter (approximately $5 million annually) and is undoubtedly in line for another raise. Also, he's an OSU alumnus who seems comfortable in the Pacific Northwest. That said, the school's conference affiliation is uncertain, as are the resources available for Smith to keep the program functioning at a high level. His name will be attached to numerous vacancies, but the one to watch is in Los Angeles. Smith grew up in the shadow of the Rose Bowl and assuredly would be interested in Big Ten stability if UCLA has a vacancy.

Stanford

Coach: Troy Taylor (first season)

Seat heat: Cryogenically frozen

Nitty gritty: Taylor's initial year has gone as expected, with the Cardinal's lack of talent leading to more losses than wins. Stanford is well coached, and it's easy to see Taylor producing a competitive program if given time to upgrade his personnel. But because Stanford's use of the transfer portal is limited, the roster overhaul will take time.

Chance of vacancy: 0.0001%

Comment: We've seen enough to become convinced Taylor, a Cal grad, is a good fit for Stanford. Our projection is rooted in his comfort level with the school: Does Taylor believe campus leadership will provide him with the resources needed to compete? Or might he become frustrated and develop a wandering eye? We view that possibility as infinitesimal but not zero.

UCLA

Coach: Chip Kelly (sixth season)

Seat heat: Mojave Desert in May

Nitty gritty: Kelly's tenure has not come close to meeting the expectations that accompanied his arrival in November 2017, with the program unable to break through to the Pac-12's top tier. The loss to Arizona State last week was dreadful on multiple levels and inflamed speculation that a change is coming.

Chance of vacancy: 49%

Comment: This is the job to watch over the next two weeks, partly because of Kelly's seemingly tenuous status and partly because an opening in Westwood could have a ripple effect across the conference. Kelly recently received a contract extension (about $6 million annually) that smartly left the school with a manageable buyout. Is he the right coach to lead UCLA into the Big Ten, or would the program be better served with a new leader? And does chancellor Gene Block's announced retirement (next summer) impact the decision-making process? The candidate pool matters immensely, and UCLA could have quality options available in Tucson and, especially, Corvallis.

USC

Coach: Lincoln Riley (second season)

Seat heat: USC has four losses; no more need be said

Nitty gritty: The program's trajectory under Riley has moved in the opposite direction of our expectations: We figured his first season would be modestly successful, followed by a high-end second year. Instead, the Trojans blasted to 11 wins in 2022 and are now stumbling. Not surprisingly, the porous defense is the cause of USC's ills. As a result, the Trojans will miss the playoffs twice with a generational talent at quarterback (Caleb Williams).

Chance of vacancy: 5%

Comment: We're constantly amused by any calls for USC to fire Riley or suggestions that he was a bad hire. (Nick Saban and Kirby Smart weren't walking into Heritage Hall.) The slim chance of a vacancy noted above is rooted in the potential for Riley, his frustrations mounting, to look elsewhere. In that event, just the right job would have to open — such as an NFL gig in Los Angeles with a franchise quarterback.

Utah

Coach: Kyle Whittingham (19th season)

Seat heat: Not relevant — Whittingham sits on a throne

Nitty gritty: Utah's quest for a third consecutive conference championship has been derailed by injuries, but the fundamentals of the program are unchanged. The Utes will compete for a title each year they experience reasonably good health, regardless of conference affiliation.

Chance of vacancy: 5%

Comment: Whittingham will coach the Utes as long as he wants to coach the Utes. We aren't convinced the soon-to-be 64-year-old will see the end of his contract (2027). The move to the Big 12 is less of a factor in our calculation than Whittingham's desire to spend time with his family and the rapidly shifting dynamics of college football, with NIL dictating roster composition and athletes approaching employee status. It's not the job he signed up for all those years ago.

Washington

Coach: Kalen DeBoer (second season)

Seat heat: Vladivostok in January

Nitty gritty: We can't help but note the contrast in public response to the Pac-12's hiring trifecta in the late fall of 2021, when USC grabbed national attention with Lincoln Riley, Oregon did the same with Dan Lanning and Washington flew well under the media radar with a guy from Fresno State. Turns out, DeBoer might have been the best hire of them all.

Chance of vacancy: 25%

Comment: Another situation to watch closely. DeBoer is massively underpaid at $4.2 million annually and due a huge raise. Our sense is that UW's administration will recognize the need to double his salary and act accordingly. (If not, president Ana Mari Cauce will have angry donors at her door.) But will a contract windfall be enough to keep DeBoer if a blueblood job opens? (Hello, Michigan.) We're skeptical. Absent turnover at the top of the sport, however, the Huskies should be fine. There's no need for fans to panic, yet.

Washington State

Coach: Jake Dickert (second season)

Seat heat: Microscopic signs of thawing

Nitty gritty: Dickert took WSU to a bowl game last year, started this season 4-0 and was one of the hottest names in the business at the end of September — so hot, in fact, that he was linked to the Michigan State vacancy. Now? Not so much. The Cougars have collapsed and are unlikely to keep their postseason streak alive.

Chance of vacancy: 0.1%

Comment: Let's be clear: There's no chance of the school initiating a termination — none, zero, zip. But given WSU's uncertain status following the collapse of the conference, and with Dickert publicly bemoaning the state of the NIL war chest in Pullman, it's foolish to completely dismiss the potential for him to look elsewhere. That's doubly true if WSU's lawsuit against the Pac-12 takes a turn for the worse, and the Cougars are cast adrift.

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