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PROVO — BYU's 11-year run of independence is over as the program earned the most valuable prize in college athletics: Power Five membership.
The 2023 season will mark BYU's first season in the Big 12, and with that comes its toughest schedule in school history. Athletic director Tom Holmoe did an excellent job getting Power Five opponents on the schedule during the independent era, but now the team faces nine Big 12 programs, plus the road trip to the SEC's Arkansas.
This step up in competition — and how BYU fits into the Big 12 and Power Five landscape — is the key storyline for the Cougars this season.
I have included BYU in my Power Five-only season preview magazine Pick Six Previews long before news of the Big 12 offer. BYU has a special place in the history of college football, with LaVell Edwards revolutionizing the passing game, their quarterback lineage, national title, and passionate fan base from coast to coast.
Before the inaugural Big 12 season kicks off, BYU faces two programs that were competing at the FCS level in 2022. First up is Sam Houston State, an annual FCS contender who moved up to the FBS level this year. Sam Houston State went 10-0 and won the 2020 FCS "spring" national title, notched another 10-0 regular season in 2021 before a national quarterfinal loss, and then had a rare disappointing 5-4 record last fall.
BYU hosts the Bearkats under the lights Saturday night in LaVell Edwards Stadium (8:15 p.m. MDT, FS1).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2020-22): BYU 60.5 (16th of 69 Power Five) | Sam Houston State N/A - FCS
2022 season: BYU 45.4 (50th of 69 Power Five) | Sam Houston State N/A - FCS
2023 preseason: BYU (48th of 69 Power Five) | Sam Houston State N/A - FCS
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After peaking at No. 5 in 2020, BYU slid to No. 26 in 2021 and then collapsed last year all the way down to No. 50 (of 69 Power Five teams) for the second-worst grade of the entire Kalani Sitake era.
Sam Houston State's 5-4 record was a clear setback from a 20-0 two-year regular season run (2020-21). Youth was a key reason, as head coach KC Keeler redshirted several players to set up a more experienced roster for their FBS transition season.
Sam Houston State with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Sam Houston State offense (2022): 106th of 130 FCS teams
BYU defense (2022): 46th of 69 Power Five
In October, BYU's defense allowed 528 yards per game during its four-game losing streak, which forced Sitake to fire defensive coordinator Ilaisa Tuiaki. Sitake hired Jay Hill, who coached five straight FCS top-30 defenses at Weber State and he is bringing that same attention to fundamentals and a more aggressive, attacking defensive scheme.
In past years, BYU played conservatively and often dropped eight players into pass coverage. Look for increased disruption in the backfield in 2023 after placing second-worst nationally in my Negative Play Rate last year.
Sam Houston State only averaged 18 points per game last year but does return seven offensive starters, including quarterback Keegan Shoemaker, top running back Zach Hrbacek, and five of its top six receivers. Only two starters return up front, which means Hill's new defensive scheme should shine through and blow up plays in the backfield.
BYU with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
BYU offense (2022): 24th of 69 Power Five
Sam Houston State defense (2022): 13th of 130 FCS teams
As BYU enters the Power Five level, the team added one of the most experienced signal-callers in America. Kedon Slovis started three years at USC and then last season at Pitt, and earned a spot on Pick Six Previews' Big 12 All-Transfer team.
Slovis will throw to a talented receiver trio and be protected by another strong offensive line. Both of those units placed in the top half of my Big 12 unit ranks (WR No. 4, OL No. 6) even with proven stars gone from the 2022 roster.
Receivers Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney are gone, but the trio of Kody Epps, Keanu Hill and Chase Roberts remain a team strength. Two linemen are off to the pros and the Barrington brothers transferred to Baylor, but Kingsley Suamataia is back after earning All-Freshman honors.
Many are doubting the BYU offensive line, but I trust this staff's track record in player development and how they build stout lines year after year. Last season, BYU made it two consecutive years placing in the Top 25 of both my offensive line metrics: OL Run Push (No. 19) and Pass Protection (No. 12).
Sam Houston State returns nine starters off of its No. 13-ranked FCS defense last year, and are again led by a top-notch linebacker unit. They held seven of their eight FCS opponents to 21 points or less, but did allow 31 in their only FBS test to Texas A&M.
Game prediction
Sam Houston State's FBS debut will be overshadowed by BYU's long-awaited Power Five debut. BYU has the edge in the trenches, and Hill's new-look defense gets to tee off on a unit that placed 106th last year among FCS teams.
BYU 37 | Sam Houston State 17
