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PROVO — Outside expectations are low, to say the least, for the BYU football program as it transitions into the Big 12 after playing as an independent the last 12 seasons.
Most forecasters anticipate the Cougars to finish no better than .500, meaning a bowl for the fourth consecutive season is in question. Taking it further, one betting site lists BYU as having the worst odds to win the Big 12.
As might be expected, the Cougars scoff at such disrespect. Get ready for a big surprise, they think.
Despite losing a few probable starters on the offseason, the coaches believe the team got better through the transfer portal. With at least one transfer and possibly more signings to come over the next two weeks, the portal was a net gain.
The most important acquisition came in December when former Pittsburgh quarterback Kedon Slovis signed on to take over for NFL-bound Jaren Hall. BYU later added junior college transfer Jake Retzlaff, giving the program two quarterbacks whom the staff believes have NFL talent.
The offensive line took a big hit with defections and Blake Freeland going to the NFL, but reinforcements are ready, beginning with transfers Caleb Etienne, who started 13 games last season at Oklahoma State, and former Utah starting center Paul Maile.
The portal also netted Aidan Robbins, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards behind a suspect line at UNLV last season. Deion Smith, who gained 393 yards last season to lead Colorado, comes over the mountain range as a graduate transfer.
Eastern Michigan transfer Darius Lassiter will be a top four receiver, if not a starter. Kody Epps, who was in the portal for a few days, is locked in the receiver rotation with Chase Roberts and Keanu Hill.
For all the potential offensive prowess, the overhauled defense will determine BYU's success. The defense was mostly horrible last season, to put it mildly, which is why coordinator Jay Hill was brought in along with three other new assistants.
BYU desperately needed help in the front seven for Hill to implement his stated desire to attack rather than sit back and drop eight. Linebacker AJ Vongphachanh (Utah State) is expected to start with defensive linemen Jackson Cravens and Isaiah Bagnah, who both came over from Boise State.
Potential aside, history indicates BYU probably should struggle during its first season in a Power Five conference. Look no farther than 45 miles to the north.
It took a bit for the two-time defending Pac-12 champion to be competitive upon leaving the Mountain West after the 2010 season. Hard as it is to believe now, Utah's first three seasons in a Power Five conference resulted in three consecutive losing records in Pac-12 play.
The Utes somehow piecemealed an 8-5 record overall in their first year in 2011 before suffering through two consecutive 5-7 seasons. Needing enough time to infuse the roster with a higher level of talent, Utah has either finished first in the South Division, which no longer exists, or been in the conference championship game the last four full seasons.
Texas Christian made a similar jump from the Mountain West to the Big 12 with lousy results. The Horned Frogs, who played for the national championship last January, were 6-12 in their first 18 conference games from 2012-13.
The losing was in stark contrast to the program then-coach Gary Patterson had built in its final Mountain West seasons. In four years from 2008-11, TCU was 30-1 against Mountain West competition, with appearances in the Fiesta and Rose bowls.
In their final three Mountain West seasons, the Utes had a 21-3 conference record and 33-6 overall record. The 13-0 team in 2008 thrashed Nick Saban's Alabama team in the Sugar Bowl.
BYU enters the Big 12 in decent shape, having gone 29-9 over the last three seasons, but the Cougars did not play a Power Five team during the 2020 COVID season in which athletic director Tom Holmoe was forced to scramble to put a schedule together.
BYU has 10 games against Power Five opponents this year, by far the most in a single season.
