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PROVO — BYU enters the 2022 season with its first preseason Associated Press Top 25 ranking since 2009.
They come in at No. 25 in the AP poll, yet I've got BYU all the way up at No. 15 nationally in my annual preseason magazine Pick Six Previews.
The 2020 Cougars started 9-0, rose to No. 8, but drew criticism by not playing a single Power Five opponent due to the conference-only scheduling restrictions. They quickly proved those doubters wrong in 2021 by sweeping the Pac-12 (5-0), beating former BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall's Virginia team, and finally snapped the losing streak against Utah.
Can the 2022 squad be even stronger? I say yes. Almost the complete starting lineup returns intact and BYU is No. 1 nationally in the returning production metric that is a clear pointer toward year-over-year progress.
The first test is a road trip down to Tampa to take on the AAC's South Florida in a rematch of last year's 35-27 BYU win.
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
2021 Season: BYU 58.1 (24th) | USF 22.4 (Power 5 equivalent: 64th of 66)
2022 Season: N/A
USF was one of the worst teams in America last year; they went 2-10, and seven of those losses were by double-digits. Against their two Power Five opponents, USF was outscored by a combined score of 87-20. Game Grader formula had USF rated low with a 22.4 season grade, which would place 64 of 66 in the context of the Power Five — that's ahead of only Kansas and Vanderbilt.
On the other hand, BYU surged up to No. 5 in 2020 Game Grader and then demonstrated staying power with another top-25 finish in 2021. Instead of getting blown out like USF, BYU went 6-1 against the Power Five.
USF with the ball
The USF offense threw for just six touchdowns in the entire 2021 season. This is one of those stats that I had to go double check for a typo, but yes, six in twelve full games. Even the Armed Forces' triple-option offenses threw more touchdowns. Worse, USF's quarterbacks combined to toss twice as many interceptions (12). Their rushing attack was relatively stronger, with a 3.9 yards per carry average, but even that was still below the national average (87th of 130 FBS).
Like BYU, USF returns the bulk of its starting lineup, including the duo of running backs that combined for 1,151 yards in 2021: Jaren Mangham and Kelley Joiner. The offensive line is packed with experience and has headliners in Donovan Jennings and Demetris Harris.
But the biggest storyline is at quarterback where Baylor's Gerry Bohanon transferred in after spring ball. Bohannon led Baylor to its surprise breakout season but he was knocked out in the 11th game and missed the Big 12 title game. That championship moment provided the platform for backup Blake Shapen to shine — he eventually beat out Bohanon this spring.
With Bohanon, USF gets an experienced Power Five quarterback who was an efficient passer and got involved in the run game by shouldering 7-10 carries per game (nine rushing touchdowns in 2021).
Yes, USF's offense is experienced, but so are their counterparts. BYU returns 15 of its top 16 tacklers, and they welcome back star linebackers Payton Wilgar and Keenan Pili, who both missed time later in the season. With the Wilgar, Pili combo in the lineup, BYU graded as the 32nd defense (of 66) in Power Five; but as injuries piled up, they fell to 58th over the last seven games.
A common misconception is that BYU simply drops eight defenders into coverage every play. They may have leaned on that a bit in 2020 when they had mountain-sized Khyiris Tonga at nose tackle, but nowadays it is a very complex scheme. Advantage: BYU
BYU with the ball
BYU quarterback Jaren Hall had big shoes to fill when Zach Wilson was selected No. 2 overall in the NFL draft, but he stunned Utah in his debut and turned in a top-25 passing season as a first-time starter. Hall now gets a second-year starter bonus and has one of the nation's best offensive lines protecting him. BYU's line was one of just eight nationally to place in the top 25 in both my Run Push and Pass Protection metrics. All five offensive line starters return, along with most of the two-deep, and left guard Clark Barrington earned fourth team All-America honors by Pick Six Previews.
I expect the trenches to be the deciding factor in this game, with the big advantage for BYU's offensive line against USF's defensive front. Last season, USF graded as one of the worst defenses in America and placed in the national bottom five against the run. In pass rush they were dead last with just nine sacks generated all season. They do return plenty of experience, but again, so does BYU; and with last season as an indicator, this is a huge advantage for BYU. Look for the Cougars to establish both a consistent run game and protect Hall long enough for secondary breakdowns.
Game prediction
All the evaluations and metrics point toward a BYU victory. I have BYU ranked No. 15 nationally, and behind only Notre Dame when considering teams not in a Power Five league. USF is projected ninth in the 11-team, non-AQ AAC. BYU will start the season off right with a strong road victory.
No. 25 BYU (-11.5) 37 | USF 20
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Brett Ciancia
