Patrick Kinahan: Expect success, but not collective replica, for BYU, Utah, Utah State

SALT LAKE CITY — One week earlier than usual, thanks to Utah State's schedule, the time has arrived to unveil the annual predictions for the three top college football teams in Utah.

Right off, no way there's a collective repeat of last season for BYU, Utah and Utah State. The three teams combined to go 31-10, with each finishing ranked (Utah was No. 12, followed by BYU at 19 and USU at 24).

Although the unparalleled success likely won't be the same, all three should anticipate bowl appearances that follow at least a somewhat decent regular season. Bowl games don't always equal satisfaction, not with the minimum requirement being only six wins, but each team has enough talent to look beyond barely sneaking into the postseason.

With a mix of trepidation and faith, here we go:

BYU Cougars

After three years of mediocrity, a combined 21 wins over the last two seasons has created an expectation of continued success for the Cougars.

And, why not? It can take a while to build a program in Provo, but coach Kalani Sitake has done just that going into his seventh season. Another campaign of double-digit wins would cement Sitake's and his staff's ability to recognize and develop talent.

This season, though, might be tough to maintain a national ranking through the entire schedule. On paper, for what it's worth, the collective opposition figures to be the most difficult during the independence era that began in 2011.

At the same time, there's a quiet confidence among the coaches, who believe in the available talent. But it comes with one stipulation: health is a requirement for quarterback Jaren Hall, whose durability has been an issue.

For all the progress Hall's backups have made, the coaches would have recruited a quarterback with more experience if they had known Baylor Romney was going to forego his eligibility to enter the workforce. For a time during the offseason, they believed Romney was planning to remain in the program.

Injuries on the defensive side led to some of BYU's shortcomings last season, but many of the projected backups gained valuable experience. Still, as with Hall, the starters have got to stay healthy.

The Cougars have got to find a way to win two of the four games against the teams ranked going into the season (Baylor, Oregon, Notre Dame and Arkansas). A split will go a long way toward defining success.

The pick: 9-3

Utah Utes

The barometer for success has never been higher for the Utes, who are considered a contender for the four-team national playoff. If playing in a second consecutive Rose Bowl could be viewed as a disappointment, the expectations are out of whack.

Yet, here's where Kyle Whittingham's program is at. Any loss, let along more than one, would be catastrophic — or so it would seem, as silly as it sounds.

Two years removed from a serious shoulder injury, quarterback Cam Rising has declared himself fully healthy and ready to show off his arm strength. All he needs now is the freedom to fire the football 30 yards downfield more than occasionally. For a program built on rushing and defense, color us skeptical in close games.

No doubt, though, Rising has plenty of weapons at his disposal. NFL talent at running back and tight ends — along with capable, if not spectacular — should equate to Utah's most potent offense since entering the Pac-12 in 2011.

The names change on defense over the years even as the productivity stays consistent. No one individual will replace first-round draft choice Devin Lloyd at linebacker, but the collective will be better than last season.

One point of note in forecasting the record: No Pac-12 team has gone through the nine-game regular season unscathed. Therefore, don't count on the Utes being the first.

Record: 10-2

Utah State Aggies

Blake Anderson worked magic in his debut season for the Aggies, who finished 11-3 and beat two Power Five teams (Washington State and Oregon State) for the first time in a season. An encore would solidify his greatness in Logan.

Returning quarterback Logan Bonner and running back Calvin Tyler Jr. are proven commodities, but replacing star receiver Deven Thompkins won't be easy. Bonner will have to spread the ball around more.

Even with a background on offense, Anderson coaches with a toughness and resiliency that reflects his team's efforts on defense. The defense did just enough to allow the offense to win games, a pattern must continue.

As they did last season, close games will determine USU's season. Last season, the Aggies won four games by a combined 17 points.

Record: 8-4

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