Pac-12 football preview: Predicting Cal's weekly results and win total

Welcome to the Hotline's predictions for each Pac-12 game of the 2022 season. The 12-part series will be published in six installments, with teams grouped by travel partners. Links to prior articles at bottom …

Cal Bears

Coach: Justin Wilcox (sixth season)

Offensive coordinator: Bill Musgrave (third season)

Defensive coordinator: Peter Sirmon (third season)

2021 record: 5-7/4-5

Cal's five-year win totals: 5-5-7-8-5 (2020 season excluded)

Last postseason appearance: 2019 Redbox Bowl (beat Illinois)

Best-case 2022 scenario: 8-4

Worst-case 2022 scenario: 3-9

Projected starting quarterback: Jack Plummer

Key question: Will the Bears, who were No. 96 nationally in scoring last season, muster the offense necessary to make the jump to the top tier of contenders in the conference race?

Here we go …

Sept. 3: vs. UC Davis

Result: win

Record: 1-0

Comment: Ballyhooed collision of UC schools not headed to the Big Ten.

Sept. 10: vs. UNLV

Result: win

Record: 2-0

Comment: So long as the Bears don't get caught looking ahead, they should be looking down on the Rebels early in the fourth quarter.

Sept. 17: at Notre Dame

Result: loss

Record: 2-1

Comment: This one-time matchup is worth about $2 million to the Bears. A victory would be worth quadruple that amount in attention and momentum.

Sept. 24: vs. Arizona

Result: win

Record: 3-1/1-0

Comment: There will be an appropriate time to mention how the ridiculous Berkeley health protocols cost Cal a victory in Tucson last season and, as it turned out, a bowl berth. But we're going to mention it here, as well.

Oct. 1: at Washington State

Result: loss

Record: 3-2/1-1

Comment: The schedule logistics work for Cal, with WSU in between duels against Oregon and USC. But this feels like one the Bears let slip away inexplicably.

Oct. 8: idle

Comment: Not a terrible spot for the bye, but one week later would have been twice as good.

Oct. 15: at Colorado

Result: win

Record: 4-2/2-1

Comment: No advantage either way with the Buffaloes also coming off a bye — an example of the Pac-12 being more attuned to competitive balance in the manner it crafts the schedule.

Oct. 22: vs. Washington

Result: loss

Record: 4-3/2-2

Comment: The past three matchups have been decided by two points, one point and in overtime. We expect the same this time. Bet the Under, whatever it is.

Oct. 29: vs. Oregon

Result: win

Record: 5-3/3-2

Comment: Tremendous back-to-back Saturdays in Strawberry Canyon. We're convinced the Bears will win one of them and picked the least likely, because that's how the Pac-12 rolls.

Nov. 5: at USC

Result: loss

Record: 5-4/3-3

Comment: Unfortunately for Justin Wilcox and his staff, Clay Helton and his staff aren't standing on the other sideline.

Nov. 12: at Oregon State

Result: loss

Record: 5-5/3-4

Comment: After the difficult back-to-back-to-back, the Bears are a half-step slow with their feet and a half-second behind with their heads in the chilled drizzle of Reser Stadium.

Nov. 19: vs. Stanford

Result: win

Record: 6-5/4-4

Comment: Cal became bowl-eligible in 2019 with a victory over Stanford. History repeats, only on the other side of the Bay — and without the need for a desperation drive.

Nov. 25 (Friday): vs. UCLA

Result: loss

Record: 6-6/4-5

Comment: UCLA's last trip to Berkeley as a member of the Pac-12 after 40-something prior visits. And honestly, it's going to be freaking weird.

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