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ANN ARBOR, Mich. — Everything comes down to this.
From the moment BYU's five seniors opted to come back for one more year — even a fifth season of eligibility — to Selection Sunday, everything has been building for this weekend for the women's basketball team.
The Cougars put together a historic regular season: a program-record 25 wins that included victories of Power Five opponents Arizona State, Washington State, West Virginia, Florida State and Utah. Then they swept through the West Coast Conference, losing just one game and beating rival Gonzaga twice before finishing up the WCC Tournament in Las Vegas with a disappointing second-place finish, which was assuaged only by the fact that the top-20 team nationally was virtually guaranteed an at-large berth in the Big Dance.
Now, with less than a day to go before the Cougars' NCAA Tournament opener against Big East runner-up Villanova (11 a.m. MDT, ESPN News), the doubts keep coming.
The Wildcats (23-8) are a trendy pick to upset sixth-seeded BYU in the first round, though even using the word "upset" may seem strange for a team from the Big East compared to one from the much less-renowned West Coast Conference.
But that's the case when a double-digit seed is picked to win against a single-digit opponent — let alone one ranked No. 20 in the Associated Press' final ranking, the highest final ranking in BYU history. These Cougars are good, but so, too, are the Wildcats.
There's still something to prove for BYU. Or is there?
"I don't know if there's necessarily one thing we're trying to prove. I think everybody who's playing in March, in general, is trying to prove that they can win and they can compete," BYU senior Tegan Graham said. "But in terms of the senior or veteran mindset, I think all the seniors that came back, we love this team and we obviously love college basketball. So, I think it's just an opportunity to keep playing with one another and keep playing college basketball.
"March is a fun, fun time and a very competitive time to do that. I think there's just a lot of gratitude and excitement around that rather than necessarily one big thing that we're trying to push or one big thing that we want people to know about our team, we want to win. Everyone wants to win in March. But we definitely want to win together."
Make no mistake, the Cougars are good. The No. 11-ranked scoring offense nationally is led by star guard Shaylee Gonzales, the two-time West Coast Conference Player of the Year who averages a stat-stuffing 18.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 2.3 steals per game.
She's joined by her "Splash Sister" Paisley Harding, the No. 6 scorer in BYU history who puts in 17.0 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game, as well as Lauren Gustin, the walking double-double who tallies 10.8 points and 11.5 boards per contest.
Harding is one of those fifth-year seniors who came back for this moment. Alongside starting point guard and offensive conductor Maria Albiero, she's already set a BYU record with 145 games played.
She doesn't want to go home at No. 146, though.
"Making more memories and just enjoying the time, the last few moments we have of college basketball," Harding replied when asked what more BYU has left to prove.
There's also Graham, the 3-point specialist who proved to be more than a shooter in the Cougars' WCC Tournament opening win that avenged their lone conference loss of the year; and Sara Hamson, the 6-foot-7 shot blocker who comes off the bench and inspires confidence.
How many teams outside of Provo can say that have a weapon like that?
So when the Cougars say they have nothing left to prove, maybe we should believe them.
Except if there is something to prove, then proving it against Villanova would be a good court on which to settle things.
The Wildcats are making their first NCAA appearance since 2018, a team that has ridden the tourney bubble all yeat, and then scraped in after a loss to UConn — yes, that UConn — in the Big East Tournament title game last week.
Beyond that, Villanova is an offensive threat, ranked No. 71 in the NET and led by an Associated Press All-American in junior forward Maddy Siegrist. The 6-foot-1 veteran averages 25.9 points and 9.5 rebounds per game — the No. 2 scorer nationally behind electric Iowa star Caitlyn Clark, and much of the offense goes through her in much the same way a lot of BYU's offense goes through redshirt sophomore Gonzales.
Siegrist won Player of the Year honors in her conference, the Big East — just like Gonzales.
So, similar? Yeah, you could say that — right down to the scouting report, with Nova's offensive cuts and a lot of motion.
"Obviously, they're a really talented team and experience is something they have," Siegrist said of BYU. "We just have to play Villanova basketball to the best of our ability, go in and have fun, and I think we'll be alright."
More than just stats and players, both teams also play a similar style of offense depending on ball movement and lots of motion.
"I feel like it's going to be an interesting matchup to see which team sticks to their game plan," Graham said, "which team has better principles with defensive kind of motion guarding."
Just like Villanova's scouting report starts with Gonzales, an AP All-America honorable mention; so does the Cougars' scheming begin with Siegrist, who took third-team honors.
"She's definitely one of the best players in the country. We'll have our hands full," BYU head coach Jeff Judkins said. "It won't be one person that can just totally shut her down. It has to be a team defense that can help and try to not let her get baskets easy. But she does a great job with scoring in so many different ways. She can score from the outside and drives and post-ups and rebounds, so she's kind of a nightmare. It's a real hard matchup."
BYU will have "three or four players" that could potentially guard Siegrist, just as Nova will likely have a similar game plan for Gonzales. But while BYU rarely sees teams that run motion offense the way they do — outside of practice and intrasquad scrimmages, that is — the Wildcats have more experience playing against teams like themselves.
Villanova head coach Denise Dillon compared the Cougars to Creighton — which finished third in the league and held off Colorado 84-74 in Friday's first round of the NCAA Tournament — for their constant ball movement, ability to score from three and off the dribble, and strong post play.
"They're definitely a team, if you're trying to prepare your players to just have an idea in mind, that's who we brought it back to, recognizing what Creighton does and has done," Dillon said. "Time to watch some film, but just keeping that in mind, the constant movement of Creighton, the effort.
"Yeah, they're just a gritty group, and I think BYU is very similar."
The Cougars are also playing for more than themselves. In addition to representing the university and the school's sponsoring faith, BYU also represents the West — a region that traditionally isn't as respected in women's basketball, where the balance of power resides with historical strongholds like UConn, North Carolina State, LSU and Baylor — to say nothing of defending champion Stanford, a somewhat rare West Coast power.
The Cougars can change a lot of perceptions with a strong showing in Michigan.
"I kind of understand it. You're two hours ahead of us and a lot of our games are late and you can't watch them all," Judkins said. "Hopefully we got a good time; we play at 1:00 (p.m. EDT), which is a good time here in the East, and it'll be good for our fans to be able to see us.
"We just want to go out and just do our best and play our game, and whatever happens happens."
NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament
No. 6 BYU (26-3) vs. No. 11 Villanova (23-8)
Saturday, March 19
Tipoff: 11 a.m. MDT
TV: ESPN News (Sam Gore, Aja Ellison)
Streaming: WatchESPN
Radio: BYU Radio 107.9 FM, SiriusXM 143 (Greg Wrubell, Kristen Kozlowski)
Series: Villanova leads 1-0. The Cougars and Wildcats haven't faced off since 1995 when Nova won 61-58 at the Dead River Tip-Off Tournament in Maine.
Tourney Time: BYU is making its 15th overall appearance in the NCAA Tournament and 11th under head coach Jeff Judkins. The Cougars' No. 6 seed is the highest seed in program history, up one spot from the No. 7 seed earned three times — most recently in 2019.
BYU has won at least one game in the NCAA Tournament five times and advanced to the Sweet 16 twice (2014, 2002).
Talk About Stats: BYU ranks No. 5 in scoring margin at 19.6 points per game, No. 11 in scoring offense at 77.8 points per game, and No. 2 assists per game at 20.0. They also rank third nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.53), fifth in field-goal percentage (46.7), and 25th in field-goal percentage-defense (36.0).