Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
This archived news story is available only for your personal, non-commercial use. Information in the story may be outdated or superseded by additional information. Reading or replaying the story in its archived form does not constitute a republication of the story.
USC has long been considered a lock for the NCAA Tournament, both on the Hotline and elsewhere. And we remain confident the Trojans will make the at-large field.
But in the interest of providing readers with the full range of outcomes, in order to avoid any last-minute surprises, we feel compelled to mention the slippery slope up head for coach Andy Enfield and his program.
While USC's NET ranking (No. 29) is solid, the foundation has a crack or two.
— The Trojans own just one Quadrant I win (over Washington State).
— They haven't beaten a team guaranteed to make the NCAAs via the at-large route.
— Their best non-conference win is over San Diego State (No. 55 in the NET).
— Their non-conference schedule is No. 286 in the influential Pomeroy ratings.
— Of their 20 wins, 15 are of the Quadrant III or IV (i.e., lowest) variety.
All of which is to say the Trojans possess considerable downside risk — far more than Arizona or UCLA, which have stronger schedules and more Quad I wins.
One or two bad losses could prompt a long slide down the NET for the Trojans, perhaps all the way to the bubble.
To the Hotline's latest NCAA projections …
— For those unfamiliar with the NET rankings system, which plays an important role in the NCAA Tournament selection process: The result of each game played falls within one of four quadrants, based on the NET ranking of the opponent and location of the game.
(The categorization changes over time as teams move up and down the NET.)
Quadrant 1: Home vs. Nos. 1-30, Neutral vs. Nos. 1-50, Away vs. Nos. 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Listed in order of NET ranking (through Tuesday) …
Arizona
NET Ranking: No. 3
Record vs. Quad I and II: 7-2
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 13-0
NCAA projection: No. 2 seed
Comment: You know what would look good on Arizona's resume? A victory over the Big Ten's regular-season champion. And Illinois, currently jammed in a three-team tie atop the league, is doing its best to make that possible for the Wildcats.
UCLA
NET Ranking: No. 14
Record vs. Quad I and II: 7-3
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 10-1
NCAA projection: No. 4 seed
Comment: Not sure what the betting line will be Saturday evening in the Galen Center, but we'll take the Bruins and give the points.
USC
NET Ranking: No. 30
Record vs. Quad I and II: 5-3
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 15-1
NCAA projection: No. 10 seed
Comment: Also working against the Trojans: They only played one Power Six opponent (Georgia Tech) outside the Pac-12.
Washington State
NET Ranking: No. 37
Record vs. Quad I and II: 2-4
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 12-3
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: Of note: The No. 32 Cougars are two spots above USC in the Pomeroy efficiency ratings, partly because the Trojans own an even softer non-conference schedule than WSU.
Oregon
NET Ranking: No. 52
Record vs. Quad I and II: 5-5
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 9-2
NCAA projection: No. 11 seed
Comment: Three visitors in five days (Stanford, Cal and WSU), and the Ducks cannot afford to lose to any of them.
Stanford
NET Ranking: No. 90
Record vs. Quad I and II: 6-9
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 8-0
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: With five of the last seven on the road, Stanford must dig deep to carry any momentum into the Pac-12 tournament, where its recent history is fairly horrid.
Colorado
NET Ranking: No. 9-3
Record vs. Quad I and II: 2-8
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 12-1
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: What was expected to be a transition year is, after all the early success, transitioning into a transition year.,
Utah
NET Ranking: No. 127
Record vs. Quad I and II: 1-11
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 8-4
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: Both Gach is averaging 9.7 points per game compared to the 10.7 ppg when he played for the Utes in 2020.
Washington
NET Ranking: No. 131
Record vs. Quad I and II: 2-5
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 10-4
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: Terrell Brown for Pac-12 Player of the Year? Reminds us a bit of the Markelle Fultz case a few years back, although these Huskies are better than the '17 version.
Arizona State
NET Ranking: No. 137
Record vs. Quad I and II: 3-11
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 4-3
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: The Sun Devils have upcoming visits from Oregon State and Cal, so the final month shouldn't get completely sideways on Bobby Hurley.
Cal
NET Ranking: No. 146
Record vs. Quad I and II: 2-13
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 7-2
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: A tough slog through the stretch run will be much more difficult without big man Andre Kelly, who's out for the rest of the season (ankle).
Oregon State
NET Ranking: No. 243
Record vs. Quad I and II: 0-11
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 3-6
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: So far, none of the bubble teams have fallen into the OSU sinkhole.
Jon Wilner's Pac-12 Hotline is brought to KSL.com through a partnership with the Bay Area News Group.
Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
Pac-12 Hotline: Subscribe to the Pac-12 Hotline Newsletter. Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
Most recent Hotline with Jon Wilner stories
Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
Pac-12 Hotline: Subscribe to the Pac-12 Hotline Newsletter. Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
