Pac-12 coaching carousel: Oregon's unsurprising vacancy, Kelly and Wilcox as candidates

Oregon has employed five football coaches in the past quarter century. Only one was hired from outside the program.

Willie Taggart didn't work out so well for the Ducks.

Will they get it right this time around?

The national search that began yesterday, after Mario Cristobal's departure to Miami, should follow one of two paths:

Either the Ducks will hire a coach with no ties to the university or the West Coast, which greatly increases the flight risk after a few years.

Or they will select a coach whose personal roots are close enough to Autzen Stadium to make stability and longevity the likely outcome.

But step back from those trees, and there is a forest to survey.

As Oregon resets its football program one week from the early-signing window for recruits, the Ducks' chief rivals are positioned to pounce on the opportunity.

Oregon State has the ideal head coach in place, Jonathan Smith, and more momentum than has existed in Corvallis in years.

Washington has a new head coach, Kalen DeBoer, and early indications of stability and momentum.

Meanwhile, the snoozing giant of the West Coast is wide awake and corralling five-star recruits seemingly by the day. With Lincoln Riley in charge at USC, the pressure on Oregon to get this hire right has soared.

The Pac-12 also needs the Ducks to make a smart hire. It needs Oregon to compete at the highest level nationally, just as it needs USC and Washington to maximize their potential.

This is a momentous stretch for the conference, with its three top football brands changing coaches in the same offseason against the backdrop of enormous change across the sport:

— The likely expansion of the College Football Playoff.

— The drafting of a new NCAA constitution that will result in more autonomy for major college football programs.

— The implementation of name, image and likeness compensation opportunities for players, and the Supreme Court's ruling on Alston vs. NCAA that changes the economic model.

And closer to home, the Pac-12 is approximately 12 months from renegotiating its media rights.

The collective value is tied to the strength of its best teams — the teams that generate TV ratings and churn out first-round draft picks and compete for playoff berths.

Because of their tradition, facilities, recruiting prowess and wealthy donor bases, USC, Oregon and Washington are best equipped to compile the rosters and hire the coaches required to compete for playoff berths and national championships.

They are the only Pac-12 programs to have either won a national title in the past 50 years or reached the College Football Playoff.

If all three are thriving, the conference thrives.

We believe the Trojans and Huskies got their hires right, however different Riley and DeBoer might be in reputation and profile.

Now, it's Oregon's turn. On so many levels, the Ducks cannot afford to miss.

*Note on the analysis below: Teams are listed from most likely to least likely to experience a vacancy (and alphabetically with ties).

Oregon

Coach: Vacant

Comment: A national search is underway. Will the Ducks make a run at the biggest names available, like Iowa State's Matt Campbell or Baylor's Dave Aranda? Or will they focus on coaches with ties to the school or roots on the West Coast, like Auburn's Bryan Harsin, Cal's Justin Wilcox or even UCLA's Chip Kelly? The Hotline pegged the likelihood of a vacancy in Eugene at 30% or more recently, but we underestimated the situation. Representatives of Cristobal and Miami had been deeply engaged for weeks.

Chance of vacancy: 100% (last week: 30%)

Utah

Coach: Kyle Whittingham

Comment: No change in our outlook. The dominating victory in the conference championship and the school's first-ever appearance in the Rose Bowl could lead to Whittingham calling it quits. There are no visible signs or public utterances to indicate he's considering retirement. But he has endured the deaths of two players; he turned 62 recently; he has loads of grandkids in the Salt Lake City area; and he just became the winningest coach in school history, with his first Pac-12 championship in tow. And the whispers about his future that began many weeks ago have not subsided.

Chance of vacancy: 55% (last week: 55%)

UCLA

Coach: Chip Kelly

Comment: Our assessment has changed with the creation of a vacancy in Eugene. A faction of influential Oregon constituents are interested in bringing Kelly back. Whether or not that faction wins the day, so to speak, is unknown. But if Oregon makes an offer — say, in the $6 million range (annually) — we do not expect the Bruins to match. Kelly has one year left on his contract, so UCLA is staring at an extension situation. But is there enough support for Kelly to justify a commitment of four or five more years? It's fascinating, and tricky. Some members of UCLA's power base might view an Oregon offer as an escape hatch.

Chance of vacancy: 20% (last week: 1%)

Cal

Coach: Justin Wilcox

Comment: If Oregon prioritizes stability, Wilcox will receive strong consideration. He played for Oregon; his father and brother played for Oregon; he was born in Eugene. Essentially, he bleeds green. The Ducks couldn't find a better defensive coach, but they would need to look beyond his record at Cal, where challenges exist that cannot be found elsewhere. And Wilcox would need to sell the Ducks on his plan to produce a top-notch offense.

Chance of vacancy: 15% (last week: 10%)

Arizona State

Coach: Herm Edwards

Comment: Edwards has the energy and desire to return, so retirement is off the table. But we are allowing for the possibility that the NCAA investigation eventually makes the status quo untenable. Of course, the NCAA might not get around to a decision on the recruiting scandal until the 2030s.

Chance of vacancy: 5% (last week: 5%)

Stanford

Coach: David Shaw

Comment: Shaw isn't getting fired, but we are leaving room — a fleck of a wisp of a chance — that he leaves for the NFL. Far more relevant is the situation with his staff. Will he makes changes, or plow forward with the same group that oversaw the Cardinal's worst season in 15 years?

Chance of vacancy: 0.1% (last week: 0.1%)

Arizona

Coach: Jedd Fisch

Comment: Despite the worst full season in program history, Fisch's return has never been in question — he'll have at least three and perhaps four years to turn the Wildcats around. He didn't take long to find a defensive coordinator, grabbing Johnny Nansen off the UCLA staff. Nansen has years of experience recruiting Los Angeles, so the Wildcats seemingly have upgraded their recruiting but lost ground strategically. They weren't going to do better than Don Brown.

Chance of vacancy: 0% (last week: 0%)

Colorado

Coach: Karl Dorrell

Comment: There will be no change at the top in Boulder. After three head coaches in 18 months, the Buffaloes picked Dorrell in large part because of the stability he offered.

Chance of vacancy: 0% (last week: 0%)

Oregon State

Coach: Jonathan Smith

Comment: Smith's contract extension, through the 2027 season, works out to approximately $4 million per year. It's a major bump from his current deal and places him in the middle of the conference hierarchy. For now. Given the rate of change and accompanying salary escalation, Smith could be on the bottom tier by next month.

Chance of vacancy: 0% (last week: 0%)

USC

Coach: Lincoln Riley

Comment: The staff creation continues, and there's a distinct Oklahoma feel. Nothing wrong with that — the Sooners have recruited California and Arizona as well as any program in the Pac-12 on a dollar-for-dollar, hour-for-hour basis. It's not like they need directions to Mater Dei and St. John Bosco.

Chance of vacancy: 0% (last week: 0%)

Washington

Coach: Kalen DeBoer

Comment: The DeBoer hiring looks ho-hum compared to USC's move, but that could be an optical illusion. We strongly suspect the Huskies got it right with DeBoer and have been impressed with his staff moves thus far. The contract pays an average of $3.3 million over five years, but it won't last to the end. Either DeBoer will have a raise in hand after two or three years, or he'll be gone after four.

Chance of vacancy: 0% (last week: 100%)

Washington State

Coach: Jake Dickert

Comment: Dickert hasn't wasted much time filling out his offensive staff, hiring Incarnate Word coach Eric Morris as the playcaller. Morris is from the Air Raid tree, but we suspect the Cougars will adhere to some run-and-shoot principles. Don't expect 60 passes a game, in other words.

Chance of vacancy: 0% (last week: 0%)

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